Posted by girt25 on 12/28/2011 9:14:00 PM (view original):
tianyi, I don't think that teams who play a bunch of good teams and lose all those games are being rewarded. Like in real life, teams are being rewarded for (a) actually winning some of those games and (b) playing a tough schedule.

Here's a perfect example of a team with a good SOS that played a solid # of NT teams, did poorly against them, and was left out ... when they clearly would've made it under the old system.

http://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?TopicID=449098&TopicsTimeframe=30&TopicsPage=2

girt, I think the most important seeding example from that thread is the one given by a_in_the_b about his Drury team. It may not directly confirm the hypothesis about opponent strength, but it does present new problems that seem linked to scheduling in some fashion.

They were 18-9 for the regular season, now having an RPI of 78 and a SOS of 95. They were 5/11 v. top 100 rpi teams and 1/5  top 50 rpi teams, with the highest rpi of any opponents being only 32, plus it's worth noting they lost in the first round of the CT.

The only things that stands out is that they only played one team with an rpi above 200, and there is only  one sim team in the conference. The only thing I can make of this puzzling NT bid is that Drury somehow gained an advantage from playing in a conference where they never had to face any team with a pitiful rpi or some factor relating to the conference had a major influencing factor. How else would a sub-20 win team with a 78 rpi receive an at-large bid?

Hey, I was only expecting a solid PT bid.  Didn't post here to complain>  Just seemed like an edge case and therefore useful, perhaps.  As said;  I would have placed myself somewhere in the upper half of the PT)

Although, you have to look at the record at the time of selection. . at which thime I was 6 -4 vs top 100, not 5 - 6,  was 2 - 4 vs top 50, not 1 - 5, and the highest RPI at that point was 23, not 32.  Also, while I don;'t have it recorded, the RPI and SOS were both something more like 74 and 89 at the time of selection.  Just for informational and accuracy purposes.

For accuracy's sake, if discussing it, this is the snapshot at time of selection;  things that happened AFTER selection naturally can't go into the process.

Posted by a_in_the_b on 12/28/2011 11:24:00 PM (view original):
Although, you have to look at the record at the time of selection. . at which thime I was 6 -4 vs top 100, not 5 - 6,  was 2 - 4 vs top 50, not 1 - 5, and the highest RPI at that point was 23, not 32.  Also, while I don;'t have it recorded, the RPI and SOS were both something more like 74 and 89 at the time of selection.  Just for informational and accuracy purposes.

Ya, I figured some of those numbers had to of changed since the selections took place, but I'm not in that world so I couldn't check what they were at the time of selection for myself. Thanks for adding this info.

For what it's worth, I agree that you should have been a high PT team as well. I just think this is the best example as of yet that shows there is a factor we have not yet discerned which heavily influences tournament selection in the new system.

Although I came pretty close to justifying myself In that nt game. (g)

Just thinking that if you want to dIsentangle the in/out formula, the last four in/out is probably the best place to look.

It's pretty interesting with bubble teams, ... in D2 Allen I see a RPI 79 Bellarmine team projected to fill the 51 slot.  I don't think they'd of had a prayer in the world of getting in the NT till now, and they lost in the Conference Quarterfinals too.  That would give them a 13/14 seed, pending conference tourny outcomes.

Posted by hogstench on 12/29/2011 2:00:00 PM (view original):
It's pretty interesting with bubble teams, ... in D2 Allen I see a RPI 79 Bellarmine team projected to fill the 51 slot.  I don't think they'd of had a prayer in the world of getting in the NT till now, and they lost in the Conference Quarterfinals too.  That would give them a 13/14 seed, pending conference tourny outcomes.

Thanks for pointing this out. I noticed they only have 5 road wins. That is a sim controlled team, but I noticed that it is one of only 4 such in the conference, so it shares that similar characteristic with the Drury team.