New NT Selection Formula Topic

In my experience, SOS by itself is a much smaller factor. The days of "stars-and-scrubs" scheduling -- where you play four powerhouse teams and lose to them by twenty points, and six weaker teams that you beat -- are gone. Basically, it's no longer enough to PLAY a tough schedule -- you've got to do something with it.

1/24/2012 4:09 PM
SOS is the the largest factor of RPI. If you play and defeat 10 teams with a 600 rating, it will probably hurt you. Unless all of your conference mates do the same thing, then each of your W-L records will boost each others SOS. The real kicker is if those teams win an average of 15 games, you have probably ensured yourself of a PT spot and boosted your chances of a NT spot.

I have been trying to recruit coaches of the same mind to a Mid-Major Conference and a Low DI Conference so we can exploit these factors and build the Conference into a top 5 Conference, but I am having trouble finding enough to set it up. I would like to see if Elite Conferences would complain and if Admin would make changes at that point. Which, if they are not willing to make those changes to effect the NT selection and seeding now, I dont they should make them after the fact.
1/24/2012 4:34 PM
I've actually found that the right kind of strong schedule can go a LONG way to getting a good seed.  I went 22-7 prior to the seeding of the NT in D3 Naismith, but 6 of my 7 losses were to top 50 RPI teams, and all of those games were close.  I only lost 1 game by more than 10 points and it was my first loss.  I played 12 games against top 50 RPI teams and went 6-6 in those games and won my CT in a full and difficult Freedom conference.  I wound up with a 2-seed despite my 7 losses.  Frankly, I think I should have probably been a 3 or 4 seed, but I played a brutally difficult schedule and deserved a good seed.  Under the old system, with 7 losses, I probably would have been more like a 5, 6 or 7 seed.  The new system isn't perfect, but it is certainly better.
1/24/2012 9:20 PM
http://www.whatifsports.com/hd/TeamProfile/Schedule.aspx?tid=5375

This is what I mean about teams wins but terrible SOS being over valued on the projection report.    This team has a 100+ RPI but a 57 rank on the projection report.    Now tell me based on this that the projection report doesnt value wins over SOS.

2/1/2012 8:30 AM
LSU just made the PIT in Naismith with RPI 126 and 16-11 record. That ain't right.
2/1/2012 8:36 AM
OF COURSE the selection formula values wins over SOS -- surely you agree that a team with a 10-0 record and an SOS of 300 should rate higher than a 0-10 team with an SOS of 1.

Plus it's so early that the projection report is likely to change drasitcally. Wait until the tournaments are selected before griping.
2/1/2012 9:35 AM
Posted by mullycj on 2/1/2012 8:30:00 AM (view original):
http://www.whatifsports.com/hd/TeamProfile/Schedule.aspx?tid=5375

This is what I mean about teams wins but terrible SOS being over valued on the projection report.    This team has a 100+ RPI but a 57 rank on the projection report.    Now tell me based on this that the projection report doesnt value wins over SOS.

They are being held above water by their win against Notre Dame.  If they lose a game, or fail to accumulate some good wins, they are likely to plummet to meet their SOS.  Being they are playing in the big ten, they are liable to either soon accumulate some losses or some additional good wins.

2/1/2012 9:46 AM
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