Although I have yet to win anything by using the Runs Created stat, I do pretty accurate predicting teams.

=(hits + nibb + hbp - cs) * ((1b +(2b*2) + (3b * 3) + (hr * 4) + (0.55 * sb))) / (ab + bb)

Since I can't figure out how to get gidp, or sh I just use this. It's +/- 50 runs at the team level it's been.
Example (Yankees in Kinsella who scored 730 actual runs, but rc was 714 and War 12.9 overall). The biggest outlier was the Indians with a +50 runs. Most were off by about 15 runs.

Name PA AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO BABIP wOBA WAR RC
Miguel Sanchez 646 0.277 0.320 0.345 0.665 0.068 0.310 0.320 1.3 76
Rico Aquino 647 0.230 0.294 0.277 0.571 0.047 0.273 0.298 -0.1 63
Damaso Jacquez 656 0.291 0.365 0.484 0.848 0.193 0.317 0.376 5.0 103
Wade Dunn 596 0.268 0.329 0.468 0.797 0.200 0.293 0.360 3.6 85
Stan Cheney 542 0.249 0.303 0.288 0.591 0.039 0.297 0.277 -1.2 45
P.T. Fischbach 504 0.256 0.307 0.401 0.708 0.145 0.291 0.314 0.7 56
Benny Picasso 424 0.319 0.429 0.489 0.917 0.170 0.322 0.407 4.5 75
Brant Clark 346 0.225 0.292 0.313 0.605 0.088 0.262 0.284 -0.6 29
Marco McMillon 315 0.262 0.299 0.470 0.769 0.208 0.282 0.335 1.1 41
Tanyon Wilson 318 0.241 0.298 0.384 0.682 0.143 0.263 0.302 0.1 34
Gus Hunter 307 0.285 0.321 0.392 0.713 0.107 0.336 0.321 0.6 36
Carlton Hodges 296 0.302 0.327 0.305 0.632 0.003 0.384 0.292 -0.2 28
Sean Willis 296 0.289 0.360 0.361 0.721 0.072 0.348 0.337 1.1 36
Vic Clark 221 0.160 0.217 0.199 0.416 0.039 0.226 0.195 -2.3 9
Matt Morel 97 0.230 0.309 0.264 0.574 0.034 0.288 0.285 -0.1 7
Team Totals 6225 0.262 0.322 0.373 0.695 0.111 0.300 0.321 12.9 714

6/7/2013 4:55 PM
Can't you make it work with individual players?   If so, can't you apply it to player acquisition?   After all, that's the whole purpose of me screwing around with formulas.
6/7/2013 8:07 PM
Yes, it works with individual players. I use wOBA/War and then have a separate formula for runs created. I just started using it for acquisition this season so we will see if it works. I haven't exactly had good teams (outside of my New Britain team in Wrigleyville). The biggest advantage of using these formulas is to plug the expected numbers into excel. It's saved me from spending on a free agent when I know I can get the same type of performance from a younger/cheaper player. Since I'm able to pretty accurately figure out team RC, I assume that it works individually as well. If you want the spreadsheet send me your email in a sitemail and you can have a look.
6/7/2013 11:45 PM
RC27 reflects true offensive value very ,very well.
6/9/2013 12:38 AM
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