Dynamic Pricing Feedback Part 2 Topic

Posted by DoctorKz on 12/19/2015 5:48:00 PM (view original):
I believe the cap is 10% total. Not per occurrence..they would reset in 4 months.
This is what I thought as well.  If I am incorrect, I will own my misinterpretation. 
12/20/2015 9:35 AM
Posted by ozomatli on 12/19/2015 4:38:00 PM (view original):
Posted by teamhydro on 12/19/2015 4:03:00 PM (view original):
I thought admin had said in a previous post that the price fluctuation for player salaries would be limited to +/- 10% of base?  If that is true, I think some of the concerns being expressed about the high-salary players eventually being grossly under priced is unfounded.
How so? Not right away, sure, but let's do an example

1888 Silver King. Currently: 29.12M
After first 10% reduction: 26.21M
After second 10% reduction: 23.61M
After third 10% reduction: 21.25M
After fourth 10% reduction: 19.12M

So, by February 2017, you'll be able to get 703 IP of .88 WHIP for under 20M, which comes out to about 27,000 $/IP, which is about the same cost per inning as 1976 Mark Fidrych. Not the worst pitcher in the world, but with an ERC# of 2.55 as compared to King's 1.58.

Anyway you slice it, that's a problem and it's only a year away.
What assumptions do you make that lead you to this conclusion?  Under the circumstances you describe, I would fully expect an uptick in utilization of King with each drop off, meaning there would be much smaller reductions in price, if any, with each subsequent update.  Certainly by the 3rd 10% reduction he would a new cookie, used all the time, which would push his salary right back up.  What will likely happen is he will reach something close to an equilibrium salary point that precisely reflects his value in open leagues.  Not to go all Adam Smith (or David Ricardo) on you, but this is exactly what a relatively well-functioning market would accomplish.
12/20/2015 10:14 AM
Good point. Perhaps I am underestimating the player search prowess of my fellow users.
12/20/2015 10:58 AM
To follow up on what karcher posted, pricing isn't the only issue.  To me, this dynamic repricing seems like a distraction. HoJo 1989 not only doesn't make any errors, but he is supposed to deliver 2.65 range at SS, and in 5985 OLs he has averaged 5.76. That disparity has been allowed to take place for over 6 years.

Further, I disagree with tzentmeyer that overall pricing is satisfactory. Pitching is very underpriced. You can put together a 100M team using the best pitchers, but that team would not be able to afford the best hitters. You can even use the most expensive pitchers at 80M in OLs.  The most expensive $/IP SP over 150 IPs is Pedro Martinez 2000, and he has been used 370 times in OLs. If you look at all of the most expensive pitchers by $/IP, you'll see them all used hundreds of times in OLs. If you look at the most expensive hitters over 600 PAs by $/PA, you'll see they have only been used 1-3 dozen times in OLs.
12/20/2015 5:40 PM
HoJo will generally have 30 or more minus plays if he starts 162 games.  That's how the D--- range works.
12/20/2015 5:53 PM
tzentmeyer, how will the waiver wire work when a league is still in progress during a salary change?
12/20/2015 5:55 PM
Posted by contrarian23 on 12/20/2015 10:14:00 AM (view original):
Posted by ozomatli on 12/19/2015 4:38:00 PM (view original):
Posted by teamhydro on 12/19/2015 4:03:00 PM (view original):
I thought admin had said in a previous post that the price fluctuation for player salaries would be limited to +/- 10% of base?  If that is true, I think some of the concerns being expressed about the high-salary players eventually being grossly under priced is unfounded.
How so? Not right away, sure, but let's do an example

1888 Silver King. Currently: 29.12M
After first 10% reduction: 26.21M
After second 10% reduction: 23.61M
After third 10% reduction: 21.25M
After fourth 10% reduction: 19.12M

So, by February 2017, you'll be able to get 703 IP of .88 WHIP for under 20M, which comes out to about 27,000 $/IP, which is about the same cost per inning as 1976 Mark Fidrych. Not the worst pitcher in the world, but with an ERC# of 2.55 as compared to King's 1.58.

Anyway you slice it, that's a problem and it's only a year away.
What assumptions do you make that lead you to this conclusion?  Under the circumstances you describe, I would fully expect an uptick in utilization of King with each drop off, meaning there would be much smaller reductions in price, if any, with each subsequent update.  Certainly by the 3rd 10% reduction he would a new cookie, used all the time, which would push his salary right back up.  What will likely happen is he will reach something close to an equilibrium salary point that precisely reflects his value in open leagues.  Not to go all Adam Smith (or David Ricardo) on you, but this is exactly what a relatively well-functioning market would accomplish.
This is exactly what I was thinking. As soon as his rice is low enough he will go up in price and then it will flatten out. What will happen in about a year is that the more expensive players in an $80m league will become bargains in a higher salary cap. To counteract this, we will probably have more $90m caps instead of $100m and so forth. I don't think it will be a problem, and I am excited to see what happens when the cookies are gone.
12/20/2015 6:02 PM
Cookies around Christmas time come in pretty handy....
12/20/2015 7:08 PM
Posted by ncmusician_7 on 12/20/2015 5:53:00 PM (view original):
HoJo will generally have 30 or more minus plays if he starts 162 games.  That's how the D--- range works.
Indeed.

Range has always been oddly handled in the SIM, because the number range is calculated from (RRF) is very heavily dependent on external factors, and of course the actual result of range is +/- plays and a player's real-life range doesn't affect a player's RF in the SIM at all -- which of course it doesn't, because range factor has to do with how many balls are fielded by a player per game, and thus is most affected by how many balls are hit to that player -- so low K rates will enhance range factors while high K rates will suppress them. Not to mention the fact that all hitters are pull hitters in the SIM and how that affects where balls are placed.

In other words, if you have problems with range, it doesn't belong in this thread, because there's a good chance you don't understand range. Perhaps I should write a thread explaining this in more detail.

EDIT: Indeed I shall.

12/20/2015 9:48 PM (edited)
I just want to mention that I was at the cusp of retirement from WIS, as I had become bored  by seeing the same things over and over.  Change of plans, gonna keep playing to see how this pans out.  Thanks!
12/21/2015 10:22 AM
Posted by 2chair on 12/18/2015 9:59:00 PM (view original):
I'm not expecting it to be perfect and see some good concerns raised about hitters who cost too much to be used in open leagues. Overall, though, I welcome this change. I am SSOOOOOO tired of using Inge, Zobrist, Boggs, HoJo, Roberts, Coleman, Raines and Raines for every open Sim League team because it's foolish not to use them. Also leyritz, Delgado, Foli, Clark, Michael Young and then debate whether to go with Steve Braun or Brian Harper. And then Addie Joss, Addie Joss, Ed Summers, Hook Wiltse, Cy Falkenberg, Dizzy Dean, Art Nehf, and some combo of Adams, McCabe and Pete Alexander Frank Dwyer or Ed Walsh. I have wanted for years to get out of this rut.
There are plenty of ways to win without Raines, Bip, Joss, etc.

Crazystengel and redwingscup, for example, just had OL teams made up entirely of 2015 players that both won 93+ games.  That's about as anti-cookie and restrictive of player choice as you can get, and they beat boring cookie teams along the way.  Imagine having the entire database at your disposal instead of just 2015 players...hey, we already do.

https://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?TopicID=490158&TopicsTimeframe=30&TopicsPage=2 
12/21/2015 11:14 AM
Well said, skunk.  I'd also like to mention another non-cookie OL team I had that made the playoffs this week, "BIG POISON."  I drafted only pitchers with a HR/9# of 1.00 or greater -- not a cookie in the bunch.  No cookie batters either, and most of my offensive salary spent on 3 Paul Waners in the OF.  We got out-homered 232-69 but still won 91 games and the division.  (No comment on how we did in the playoffs!)
12/21/2015 11:30 AM
I agree with Bribar above that pitching seems to be underpriced relative to hitting.  It's too easy to assemble a killer staff at 80-100M caps.  
12/21/2015 11:35 AM
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I applaud this change!  I think we were heading toward a time when all 24 teams would have the same 25 players -- Bip Roberts, Addie Joss, Ben Zorbist (sp ?), etc. Nice players all, but not a group of guys upon whose backs champions are made.  Meanwhile great players like Koufax and Seaver are hard to fit on your roster because of a high price and not great performances.  I think this is a great move.
12/21/2015 8:19 PM
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Dynamic Pricing Feedback Part 2 Topic

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