Posted by bripat42 on 6/18/2018 5:37:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Jtpsops on 6/18/2018 4:24:00 PM (view original):

Posted by damag on 6/18/2018 4:15:00 PM (view original):
Gambler's Fallacy

A fallacy is a belief or claim based on unsound reasoning. Gambler's fallacy occurs when one believes that random happenings are more or less likely to occur because of the frequency with which they have occurred in the past.

Except it's not random. We're talking about a matchup of teams with a significant talent gap. The more talented team should win more often than it seems to in the playoffs in HBD.

The only way Jtpsops will accept a reply as valid is if someone posts something like this: "I agree, Jtpsops. The team with the better regular season record should ALWAYS win in the playoffs. Outcomes should only be unpredictable when two teams with identical records who split their regular season series meet up in the playoffs."

Except I never said upsets never happen. I disputed their frequency in HBD.

Nice try though.

In the last 10 major league seasons, teams that are 7 or more games better than their playoff opponents (one game playoffs not counted) are 11-9 (.550) in those series.

In the last 10 seasons in OCD (my current world), those teams are 39-18 (.684). Given the small N, these proportions are not statistically different from each other.

The reason there are more upsets in HBD is that HBD is more unbalanced, and there are FAR more series played in which one team is much better than the other. But as a rate per series, there are no more upsets in HBD than in MLB.

"The reason there are more upsets in HBD is that HBD is more unbalanced."

This is the first logical argument I've heard and probably a fair point. It's also possible some HBD managers cost themselves wins over the course of a season, but are able to handle putting together winning combinations throughout a 5 or 7 game series.

Not sure how HBD works, but in the regular SIM, playoff rotations get shortened. You can sneak some short AB guy with killer stats into the lineup a few times.....pull out the trick Milacki start. ETC. Skews the balance quite a bit.

Just lost in the WS in Mauer. I was seeded 4th with 89 wins. I beat a 91-104-91 to get to the WS. I played the 6th seed with 87 wins. They beat 90-99-102 to get there. You need a good 25 man roster to win 100 games in the regular season. In the post season....it is about hitting a hot streak at the right time and having a better top 17 man roster than the other guy.

Many strategies that create more regular season wins in HBD don't help in the playoffs.

A good 4th SP goes a long way towards a 100 win team. Often doesn't matter at all in the playoffs. Might start one game in one round of the playoffs.

An above replacement level 5th SP might get you 5-8 more regular season wins. That pitcher usually isn't on your playoff roster.

Same for an above average 3rd RP. Gave you 80 above average regular season IPs. Might only pitch 1 inn in a playoff series.

A deeper bench helps in the regular season. Being able to keep all players at 100 or (or at least high 90s) rest. Resting better players with lower stamina against the 1-4 dregs every HBD league has boost regular season wins. Has nothing to do with playoff wins.

Home field advantage matters more in MLB than HBD. As stated here, fake baseball players don't get an emotional boost or extra nerves playing a deciding game before a sold-out cheering home crowd or a jeering away crowd.

There's a difference between building and HBD team that is designed to win a short series and one that's designed to make it to the playoffs. I believe this because I've learned I'm above average at winning 100 games a season and below average at taking playoff teams to the WS.

Well said tufft.

I don't care about regular season record in the playoffs. Great teams can win 85 games and average teams can win 95 games. I'm more than willing to give up a 100 win season if I know I've secured a playoff spot and it won't affect whether or not I get a bye - I'd much rather win 90-93 if it means my players are at 100% for my first series.

Not going to pretend i know all, im in my 2nd and 3rd season respectively, but it seems like playoffs are ripe for upset because niche players become more useful. Those "stud" pitchers with poor durabilty suddely become very useful. Another factor could also be injuries. Maybe your opponent dealt with key injuries during the season that kept that record low, but healthy at the right time. Along the same lines would be mid season trades or calling up a stud rookie, wouldnt necesarily be reflected in win/loss record but would have an impact in a short serise. Yet another factor could be fatigue, either from ur player or them gettin 100% rested.

Just some possible factors, could be that none of these apply, but worth considering imo.