Posted by thewizard17 on 10/29/2018 12:14:00 PM (view original):
And when it comes to recruiting, yes there are choices to be made, but only up to a certain point. You can increase your odds by making certain educated decisions, but if you're already on that one player you're targeting, and Team B comes in late to get to "high" and they end up winning up that recruit, that's luck, you need a crystal ball for those types of situations. What are you supposed to do? Stop recruiting that player because Team B got to high and target your backup options?
First of all, forget the crystal ball. No one has or needs one.
Second, what you are “supposed” to do depends on how you want to play. If you are risk averse, and want to avoid ever losing battles, then yes, you should aim quite a bit lower, or drop him right away and move on. I don’t think that’s the best way to play, but if losing individual battles is that upsetting to you, find a way to play that you enjoy.
I fought off low and mid major D1 teams all the time at ACU. Sometimes I got beat, sometimes I didn’t. Sometimes I let go and moved on pretty fast, because I was playing FB/press. If you’re recruiting those players that would be elite at your level, and therefore likely to attract attention from higher levels, you have to make smart decisions. Know your geography, know where your preferences are, and definitely pay attention to signing tendency. It’s hard to win battles for first session signees, because all the higher level team has to do is get *just* within signing range, and even if you’re way in front in terms of effort credit, you’ve lost him. So signing tendency should definitely be a part of your calculus.