i was in agreement with benis but then i started thinking what shoe was thinking and im back to not sure. i guess it really could work either way in theory. but WHY is the guy at 50 about the same as the guy at 100, within each class, is there a clue there? did tarek really write a gradient based on the ranking and this 50-100 similarity in odds was a desired, built-in effect? it kinda seem arbitrary, i mean, someone could do that but it sounds like extra work and that goes against what the HD folks normally do.

i am kinda buying in to shoe's theory because the natural order of things would be if there was a set % of odds for the position you were being considered for, where 1st pick is 99%, and so on, but say 2nd round was all the same, then it would naturally create a similar effect to that which we see, where once you are filling 2nd round spots, it doesnt matter where you are in the 2nd round. i think that is how it would flush out, anyway?

the only problem i have with that is guys are making their decision at the time of the draft instead of declaring ahead, so it sort of makes no sense to include draft order and the decisions of other players, in your decision - on one hand (its an unrealistic simulation to see the future!). but on the other hand, why does HD only publish who goes when the draft happens? maybe its just because neither one can happen until the NT is over and so that is just a coincidence, but it does kinda feel like one of those 'if the shoe fits' situations.

in the old days, there was a preference for staying or leaving, which impacting things substantially, but i can't figure out how that has any bearing on which way its written. also, stats used to have a significant impact, but i also can't see how that matters either.

bottom line, none of this matters, but i am curious nonetheless!

wait a second, does the draft happen when players declare? i was thinking it does but now i am questioning that. or do they declare immediately after the NT but the draft doesnt come out until like, i don't know, later? the whole offseason is weird to me now. i can't even remember how it used to be. or how it is now. sigh.

"but WHY is the guy at 50 about the same as the guy at 100, within each class, is there a clue there?"

Yeah exactly. Which is why I dont think your theory of players moving up a spot makes sense. I dont see any good explanation for it

“but say 2nd round was all the same, then it would naturally create a similar effect to that which we see, where once you are filling 2nd round spots, it doesnt matter where you are in the 2nd round. i think that is how it would flush out, anyway?”

That’s essentially my assumption. A player’s draft prospects determine their thinking, tiered by (roughly) Top 5, Lottery, 1st round, 2nd round. A soph or junior who is probably locked out of the 1st round will be less likely to leave than one who might be closer to the cusp.

This arrangement is the most natural accomodation, in my thinking, in a simulation that 1) does not result in any undrafted early entries, and 2) occasionally results in players from off the big board being selected. Totally speculation, and as gil says, really makes no functional difference in gameplay, but I think is a better way to think about it than “random”.

To me the Draft Big Board simply puts a decision and their are 4 equations into making a decision for them to leave thus making the Elites the elites with A++++++ All the way down to A and you can guess which one those are. I won a Ct and a National tourney bid in Miles same world been with Chowan for I don't know how long. Its up to you the user to find the equations and its simple dice equations that can be done by math skills.