Round 2 Roster Selection Strategies, 2019 Topic

Posted by ozomatli on 12/17/2019 4:14:00 AM (view original):
He’ll be ok. Pretty sure I’ve been under that with each of the 70M or lower themes in the last 3 years. Two or three of them won the WS and one won the TOC. The impact of hitter fatigue is largely overblown IMO.
I always thought hitter fatigue mainly showed up in fielding, and it does start to hurt pretty quickly there.

It's gotta be an issue or there would be people winning leagues with 4000 PAs and using the higher $/PA to undo the effects of fatigue. (If it is on fielding, then maybe I should try that with a DH one year.)
12/18/2019 1:38 PM
Posted by NebHusker on 12/18/2019 12:42:00 PM (view original):

You know, it's funny...many many years ago (I'd say more than 10) a bunch of us tried to organize a WhatIf Sports meetup in Boston. For a while it looked like it was going to happen but a bunch of people backed out at the last minute so it never did.


I've thought about that a couple times, would be awesome to actually get something going. Maybe something more centrally located would draw more people? You know, like maybe, oh just shooting from the hip here. . . . Nebraska?
Or better yet, take a vacation to the beach and hit me up when you get here.
12/19/2019 11:00 AM
To be updated:

70M: $70M Don't Buy What It Used To
Hitters: 4,405 AB, .251/.376/.429
Pitchers: 1,212 IP, 1.10 WHIP, 1.27 HR/9

90M: 30 + 50 = 80 wins (SCIENCE!)
Hitters: 4,722 AB, .306/.391/.457
Pitchers: 1,451 IP, 1.09 WHIP, 0.59 HR/9

110M: 1988 Brave Young Men
Hitters: 5,168 AB, .309/.382/.465
Pitchers: 1,501 IP, 1.05 WHIP, 0.53 HR/9

130M: Make It A Double
Hitters: 4,838 AB, .341/.424/.580, 417 2Bs
Pitchers: 1,414.2 IP, 0.90 WHIP, 0..65 HR/9

140M: Ryan Express Checkout
Hitters: 6,634 AB, .324/.388/.466
Pitchers: 1,446 IP, 0.96 WHIP, 0.61 HR/9

180M: So Many Variables...
Hitters: 5,011 AB, .370/.442/.565
Pitchers: 1,536 IP, 0.80 WHIP, 0.38 HR/9
12/19/2019 12:14 PM
jtpsops, why do you use AB instead of PA?
12/19/2019 1:10 PM
Posted by redcped on 12/19/2019 1:10:00 PM (view original):
jtpsops, why do you use AB instead of PA?
The team stats don’t show PA that I can see. I didn’t record my stats in the draftcenter
12/19/2019 2:17 PM
Interesting because I can see mine when I click on my teams.
12/19/2019 2:20 PM
Yep, column to the right of OPS over towards the right side. Under the Actual Statistics.
12/19/2019 2:59 PM
Posted by redcped on 12/19/2019 2:59:00 PM (view original):
Yep, column to the right of OPS over towards the right side. Under the Actual Statistics.
Yeah it's kind of odd where they put it, you'd think it would be just before or after AB.
12/19/2019 3:02 PM
Well, we all know nothing will be changing over here, so best to just get used to it.
12/19/2019 3:06 PM
Posted by redcped on 12/19/2019 2:59:00 PM (view original):
Yep, column to the right of OPS over towards the right side. Under the Actual Statistics.
Thanks. No clue how I’ve never noticed that
12/19/2019 4:03 PM

This is my first time doing a write up because I’m far from a top owner and only got to the final round due to charity. I mainly join draft leagues and the occasional $40M League so I rarely mess with a normal salary cap and I definitely don’t know the ‘Cookies’ y’all speak of. But if anyone wants to see how a lesser owner puts together a team, I’m your guy. Also, I usually spend 5% or so more on hitting than pitching just because.

Two True Outcomes ($70M - Modern Baseball)

Hitting: .239, .342, .478

Pitching: 3.08 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, .242 OAV

Stadium: Riverfront Stadium

I read the strategy of others in this league and I see a lot went with OBP over HR. Being a simple country boy, I went the (probably too) obvious route of HOMERS, HOMERS, HOMERS!!! I also sprinkled in a few that can steal a base in a pinch and added decent defense up the middle. All starters have at least 24 home runs and five have 37 or more. I’m also playing at Riverfront so I there will be home runs. I should have gone with a more homer-friendly park but I also wanted to limit singles because my pitching is atrocious and I’ll probably have the highest WHIP in the league (1.13). I toyed with different 2019 players and ended up with what I thought was an obvious choice (which means I’ll be the only one with him) – Yasmani Grandal. He’s a switch hitting catcher with a little pop and gets on base. He seemed a bargain with 632 PA at that price. As for pitching, my ace is pre Drug Running, Mobbed Up, Embezzling, 300+ LB Denny McLain and my #2 is 1951 Preacher Roe and his 1.21 WHIP and under 4 K/9. Lesson to be learned here kids - When you aren’t good at managing fatigue, you end up with 1951 Preacher Roe as your #2 starter.

30B + 50H = 75W ($90M - 30s + 50s)

Hitting: .320, .398, .493

Pitching: 2.35 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, .224 OAV

Stadium: County Stadium

When I read the description that said the top owners aren’t as familiar with these two decades, I thought ‘So you’re telling me there’s a chance….’ I started with pitching and naturally grabbed 1933 Carl Hubbell. Then, I quickly realize I cannot afford 1933 Carl Hubbell (or the ’32 Hubbell, the 34 Hubbell, the ’36 Hubbell, etc) and I set my sites lower – much, much, much lower. Like a lot of teams, I settled in on Lefty Grove as my ace. Unlike those same teams, I chose the washed up, noodle-armed 1939 version. And it drops off from there. I centered around 1930s hitting and 1950s pitching with some exceptions. Heading up my bullpen is 1938 Dizzy Dean. I chose him for many reasons – He seems like a strong value with 80 innings at just over 3M and we have a similar mastery of the English language. My overall staff 1.12 WHIP and .5 HR/9 doesn’t exactly give me the warm and fuzzies but I’m hoping my hitting can carry us. I normally center around a strong D but gave up a lot to add hitting. The corner OF’s (Earl Webb and Earle Combes) can hit but can’t field (D/D+ and C/C-). Ben Chapman has range but can’t catch the ball (D+/A+). I went with five starting OFs with 1955 Musial at 1st and 1955 Aaron at 2B. Outside of the Earl(e)s, my defensive range is decent but I’ll be in the top 5 in errors. All told, call me an optimist but I’m banking on 75 wins (hence the name 30B + 50H = 75W – my 9th grade Algebra teacher would be so proud…).

Ball Four ($110M - Two Degree Twist)

Hitting: .299, .375, .499

Pitching: 2.27 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, .217 OAV

Stadium: Sicks Stadium

I first read the Jim Bouton classic ‘Ball Four’ as an impressionable 13 year old who’s only dream was to become a professional baseball player. Unfortunately, there wasn’t a need for a shifty utility infielder coming off a one hit season for the mighty Klenco Construction little league team. But I digress….

I looked at different 80’s teams but couldn’t get any that worked and, since Sicks stadium is one of my favorites, I tried the 1969 Pilots and I was able to put a team together. It helped that I read the book and actually remembered most of the players. I really wanted Dooley Womack (Yes, that Dooley Womack) but couldn’t get it to work. I know it’s taboo but, due to my park and the options available, I went with home run hitters Bench, Aaron and Mays driving in Wes Parker, Pete Rose and Joe Morgan. I originally had the 1964 Yankees with Mickey Mantle but my conscience got the better of me and I went with the 70’s Giants. My three man rotation has 1966 Koufax, 1969 Marichal and 1968 Gaylord Perry (easily the weak link). When done, I looked at my $110M team with sub .300 batting average and a .5 HR/9 in a home run park and I thought ‘NAILED IT!!!’ I felt pretty good until I read a note on the board from a more experienced owner saying he started with the Pilots but found a MUCH better option. Balloon, meet pin…

Still Homerless in San Fran ($130M - The Storm)

Hitting: .347, .408, .533

Pitching: 1.83 ERA, .94 WHIP, .205 OAV

Stadium: Pac Bell

I completely bombed this league in round 1 and it initially cost me a spot in the finals. It was my only team below .500 and it wasn’t close to .500. That said, Ozomatli had a similar record in the same league so I felt a little better about myself (but just a little). In round 1, I went with extremes which, for me, is totally wrong. I like to have a little pop and I like stadiums that allow homers so, naturally, I did the exact opposite. I had limit of 6 HRs per player in my starting lineup and had a HR/9 of .18. Since I’m stuck with Pac Bell, I tried a lot of double and triple hitters this time around with a bit of pop for the road. I have 1920 Rajah, 1923 Speaker and 1923 Heilmann carrying my team offensively. My weak link is 1979 Garry Templeton but I waxed a tad nostalgic and I always liked him growing up. My starting pitching is shakier than most but my bullpen should help. My ace is 1978 Guidry and I need him to be lights out. This looks like at least a .500 team to me but my fear of pitching fatigue will probably cost me some wins. I ended up with 1494 innings (counting a cheap 26.3 inning mop-up) and that looks to be at least 50 too many considering my home park.

Maxed Out (Variable Cap - Plus X & Y)

Hitting: .368, .435, .553

Pitching: 1.44 ERA, .86 WHIP, .195 OAV

Stadium: Pac Bell

I greatly appreciate Brianjw’s patience as this country boy has trouble figuring out the difference between adding and multiplying. It took him three tries but he finally dumbed it down enough where I could understand it. I found his marble example most helpful (If Joey has 16 green marbles and 14 red marbles, how many marbles does Joey have?). So I switched from a 3 X 10 formation to a 16 (years/green marbles) + 14 (seasons/red marbles) combo– I would have used a different combination but that would have required more math. I’m in the DEAL (Draft ‘Em All) league every year and I have really found that helpful with the higher cap leagues. I went with the best of Joss, Johnson and Mathewson and ended up with 1614.3 innings (including a 26.7 inning mop-up scrub just in case). Again, probably too many innings but I know from DEAL that you’ll have issues with much less than that. For offense, King Kelly and Tip O’Neill are my big money guys but I added Seymour, Brouthers and Speaker as I like the value/price combo. I like parks that allow more homers but I figured dead ballers would be the norm so I went with Pac Bell again since it worked so well in my first Storm team. I’m probably the most confident in this team making the playoffs than any of the others, especially since really don’t know what to expect at all out of my draft team.

Boyle County Rebels ($140M - Teammate Draft)

Hitting: .324, .384, .508

Pitching: 2.02 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, .214 OAV

Stadium: Tiger Stadium

I really like drafts and I always seem to do pretty well with them but I have no idea what to expect from this team. I made a list of draftable guys from each nominee and went through almost all of them before the draft midpoint. I wasn’t thrilled with the 17th pick but honestly, I probably would have picked the same guy if I was outside the top five. Sitting there watching him not go for the first 16 picks made me question what was wrong with me for valuing him that high. Also, props to Ozomatli for his spreadsheet. There were two times I checked his spreadsheet out of paranoia and realized I would have made horrible mistakes.

Round 1 – Pick 17: Lou Gehrig

I was all in with Lou from the beginning. Going into the draft, I thought that there many more quality pitchers than hitters (apparently I was alone in that thinking) so, as long as my top four pitchers were gone, I was going with the best hitter available. Who knew the best would still be available with pick 17? I also went in planning to take the best player regardless of where I pick next round. That really came into play with my early picks.

Round 2 – Pick 16: All Simmons

Going into round 2, my list was as follows: O’Neill, Joe Jackson, Jake Weimer. My last two went right before me and I wasn’t prepared. The next two were Al Simmons and Ted Williams and I couldn’t make up my mind. The next round didn’t matter since they were both from Foxx. I was afraid of running into cap issues (what was I thinking??) so I went with Simmons. In hindsight, I’m a moron.

Round 3 – Pick 19: Elton Chamberlain

Going into round 3, my top two were Elton Chamberlain and Sam Thompson. I wasn’t worried about picking last the next round as I think most were. Since they both fell to me, I struggled but figured since I didn’t have a pitcher yet, I’d go with the best on the board and one of the best eligible in the whole draft. I’m planning on using him until his arm falls off…

Round 4 – Pick 21: Rube Foster

This time, my list was destroyed so I went with Foster. There were better players out there but I got what I considered the best starter available. I had him equal with guys taken many before so I wasn’t too upset. Plus, I got to pick early for a change

Round 5 – Pick 1: Bernie Williams

It was between Williams and Magglio Ordonez and I went with defense.

Round 6 – Pick 20: Mike Bordick. Seriously, Mike Bordick??

The first of my defensive guys I took way too early. He provides defense and only defense. I panicked with the lack of shortstops and I knew I’d get an early next round pick. Also, I didn’t want to miss out on the few Ripken options still available. This is the first time I made the mistake of going for an early pick instead of taking best available.

Round 7 – Pick 3: Pie Traynor

I was originally considering Robin Ventura and Pedro Guerrero but when I saw the McInnis options were few and far between, I went with Traynor. I thought about taking Ventura and hoping Paul Waner would fall the next round but didn’t think he’d make it (good call as it turns out).

After that, the wheels came off a bit. My big regret was taking Hooks Wiltse in round 9 instead of Tuck Turner. I had trouble believing Turner was still there, I needed innings and I was afraid of using my double up that early. In summary, I like but don’t love my team. I probably took some defensive guys way too early (Mike Bordick anyone??) but at least I’m solid up the middle. Like Jfranco, I too look for A+ defense. Unlike Jfranco, I don’t have a good feel for the line where hitting and fielding intersect. My pitching may fail me but I really think this is my 2nd best chance of being above .500. In the end, I did actually have to watch the cap and draft accordingly but I still wish I had picked Ted Williams. I ended up right around 140M.

Best Picks: #1 – Lou Gehrig, #3 Elton Chamberlain, #16 Mike Piazza

Worst Picks: #2 Al Simmons over Ted Williams, #6 Mike Bordick over WAY too many to name, #9 Hooks Wiltse over Tuck Turner

Nomination: Jack Boyle

I was the 23rd to nominate so I had the advantage of seeing what was already out there. I had originally planned to nominate Enos Slaughter but by the time 22 were off the board, I thought quality was needed over quantity. I started looking late 1800’s and checked out the Browns. When I saw Boyle was attached to the Browns and the 1894 Phillies, I was sold. I wanted to give people a reason to pick late the next round and I like to think I accomplished that mission.

12/19/2019 5:25 PM
Thanks for several wonderful belly laughs in that write-up, ledfoot. Made my day!
12/19/2019 5:44 PM
Agreed.... very funny writeup.
12/20/2019 8:51 AM
70m
This is the only theme that I look forward to seeing the box scores. I was able to check off some long sought after bucket items.
  • Roster Woodie Held
  • Roster Jose Canseco
  • Have a starting lineup of 7 righties (ok, not that)
I just grabbed a bunch of cheap bats that hit a decent amount of HRs. For pitchers, I limited BBs like everyone else. To me, Jose Ramirez was the obvious choice for 2019 …Good fielding at a scarce 3B position, fast, decent power, just over 4m.
This was my favorite theme because I really have no idea how the sims are going to go.

90m 30's (blah) and 50's (blah)
These players are so blah I don’t have much to say.
  • I wonder who’s Wally Moon will win MVP.
  • I wonder who’s Carl Hubbell will win Cy Young.
  • Thank God for Robin Roberts (348IP 10.41 mil) to take up 25% of the horrible 50’s salaries.

110m
I waited until the Friday before the deadline to do this. It was not a fun weekend. To move things along I chose 2 players (18 deGrom, 15 Kershaw) to build the team around and forced the rest of the players. Jay Bruce connected me to deGrom, Jay Bruce is on the 2013 Reds, the 2013 Reds have superstar Chris Heisey, Chris Heisey connects me to the 2015 Dodgers….and the rest is history…and the rest of my team is average at best…but I finished.

130m
My first round team for this was my worst because I went too low on HR and HR/9….The bright side, for round 2 I pretty much was able to build the best 130m (post 1920) team possible without much restriction. I went higher on HR than I normally would since HR shouldn’t be suppressed.

140m
First off, sorry about Stuffy McCinnis. He would have been a great choice if 15 of his 19 seasons didn’t overlap previously chosen playersL
As far as my team, I don’t like it. I don’t like draft leagues because I don’t pay attention and it shows. One glaring mistake I made while picking is taking Andrew McCutchen because for some reason I thought he was a switch hitter….he’s not...he's also not left-handed. Methinks he won’t be fairing well against Silver King! Hey, I was able to roster a few “all-name team” guys which is nice (Orval Overall, Wally Pipp, Yank Robinson, Johnny Grubb and to a lesser extent Goose Goslin and Charlie Pick). I’ll be shocked if this team ends over .500.
180m
My Typical 180m team. The only difference is I decided to use 1912 Walter Johnson for the first time ever. My guess is Brianjw’s version in the draft league will fair slightly better than this one.
Good luck and Happy Holidays!
12/20/2019 12:29 PM
Posted by schwarze on 12/20/2019 8:51:00 AM (view original):
Agreed.... very funny writeup.
Thanks Red and Schwarze! I haven’t done a write up before because I’ve never made the 2nd round so no one’s going to read it and say ‘I never thought of that’ (at least not in a good way). But I really appreciate all the insight I’ve gotten from other write ups so I thought I’d at least be able to give the mindset of someone that’s relatively new and not as successful. Thanks all for sharing your strategy - I definitely appreciate it
12/20/2019 4:47 PM
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Round 2 Roster Selection Strategies, 2019 Topic

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