Posted by gillispie on 12/22/2021 3:46:00 PM (view original):
the more i read all these the more i worry about the inflationary effect on prestige. there's already a ton of B schools or higher competing for top tier recruits, i feel like this would just further compress those into a higher range, where we'd have a significantly higher number of a- type schools and up, and a significantly higher in B or higher range, and it just would be really hard to differentiate, would get even more competitive.
maybe that's good, i know a lot of the tiering, folks are not fans of. but at the same time, if you had 160 people on the same footing in a d1 world, today's recruiting model probably does not hold up very well. the competitiveness gets to a point that exceeds what most people are looking for, and i am concerned that turning a dozen or two b/b+ schools into a/a- schools, and presumably having those b/b+ themselves replaced by the b-/c+ schools of old... i am concerned it takes the competitiveness into the unsustainable range (the only relief being from lower world population)
Honestly, I think the # of B- and B teams is adequate. I think the problem with the current system isn't that more teams can't get higher prestige. It's all about the baseline and keeping those teams at that level. For instance, my W. Kentucky team is able to keep a B- prestige pretty easily even though I haven't made the NT in 3 seasons (twice I went 16-0 in conference play and then lost to Sim AI in a major unexplainable upset twice in a row). And I think making the NT multiple seasons in a row and getting to a B or even a B+ prestige isn't necessarily bad. You can compete for some of the top players at that level. You just won't pull multiple top players year in and year out.
I just think the hard line baseline prestige is the issue. If I happen to make W. Kentucky into a team at some point which consistently can get into the Sweet 16 and maybe further on occasion... after a while I should be able to push their baseline up. I do believe that the Power 6 should have a minimum baseline of B- and mid level teams should have a maximum baseline of B+.
For example, as much as I am a UNC fan, there was a world and I can't remember which one where the UNC coach apparently bought a 10 pack and set to auto renew and disappeared. They went 0-27 for about 7 seasons in a row. Their baseline should not stay at A+. It should drop to maybe a B+. And Baseline should not be a hidden rating. When you take over, you see the current prestige and the current baseline prestige, so you know what you're working with.
As I said above I think the last 50 seasons (or you can go 30-40 seasons if you think that's too much) and use Win%, post season results, draft picks, conference power, so on to pick the top 10 teams to be A+, next 10 to be A-, next 10 to be A and 25 B+, 25 B, 25 B-, 50 C+ and the rest C. But it should constantly change just not as quickly as current prestige. But it should be tied to conference as well as team to ensure that the top conferences have the benefit, and it should be somewhat realistic to make sure that the UNC/Duke/Kansas/UCLA and other teams don't drop too far down because of the diminishing value of popular teams that drive this game.
12/22/2021 4:14 PM (edited)