Quote: Originally Posted By timf on 1/27/2010The only FACT we have to go on is that the home run rate is roughly 33% higher than that of MLB.
This is correct. There are NO facts that point to a direct cause of the higher HR rate.
- Changing the engine to lower the HR rates has lowered the number more than they anticipated. One can reasonably infer there are some manager behaviors (i.e. roster moves, lineup changes) that contribute to the home run rates. One can also reasonably infer that the engine change was done under some faulty assumptions, namely that everyone would keep doing what they were doing.
- There are NO facts to say that extra home runs are GOOD or BAD, merely that there are 33% more. However, since their stated goal is to replicate MLB, one can assume that 133% is outside their tolerance for variability, necessitating the change in their minds. However, this is contradicted by their desire to bump the HR rates back up, even though they are still historically high compared to MLB.
- They could have simply suppressed home runs by adjusting park effects. In other words, suppress the +4 home run parks to +3 and the -3 home run parks to -4. This would lower home run rates WITHOUT changing the player values significantly, or at least as much as an engine change seemed to.