Posted by Jtpsops on 9/26/2022 9:31:00 AM (view original):
Posted by 06gsp on 9/21/2022 7:13:00 PM (view original):
It's a deliberate strategy to swing with a pull uppercut, teams have so much data now and they've concluded hits with a higher launch angle are more productive over the long term than trying to slap the ball the other way. And like you said, it's much harder to make contact against modern pitchers, I don't think a hit and run or other small ball strategy is gonna be too effective against guys throwing 99 with movement. If you took today's pitchers and put them in the 1970s and 80s against teams attempting small ball slap hitting, you'd see a bit of a decline in strikeouts but also a huge decline in home runs and an overall decline in runs scored. The best chance of scoring against a lot of these guys is by taking it out of the ballpark. I've got a lot of criticisms of modern front offices for their penny-pinching tactics but they're not stupid, if teaching your hitters to go to the opposite field was a winning strategy someone would be doing it.
It really depends on the hitter. Do you think a hitter like Tony Gwynn wouldn't have value in today's game because he doesn't hit HRs? I'm not an analytics expert, but it just seems logical that having your 1, 2 and 9 hitters (at very least) being higher average/OBP guys who excel more at getting on base than they do hitting HRs, to set up your big power guys, would be beneficial. As a hitter, I'd rather be a .270/.340/.425 guy with 10 HRs, than a .217/.315/.460 guy with 27 HRs.
The problem with today's game is that even the smallest guys seem to be taught to swing for the fences, when there appears to be very little payoff with their lack of power. Look at a guy like Rougned Odor. You can't tell me a hitter with his build should be constantly trying to hit bombs. He's had a couple 30 HR seasons in his career, but he's only topped 100 in OPS+ twice in 9 seasons (and never higher than 107). He's also hit under .210 in 5 of his 9 seasons. I don't buy any analytics that tell me that's best approach for a player like him.
The first guy has a .765 OPS, and 10 HR means at minimum 10 guaranteed runs.
The second guy has a .775 OPS with at minimum 27 guaranteed runs.
But let’s knock 10 points off and assume they have the same OPS, and you’d rather be the guy that gets on base more.
We know the OPS model is a little broken, two guys with the same OPS are not going to be worth the same amount of runs added.
Now when you start an inning with no one on, and no one out, run expectancy starts at around 0.461 runs. A leadoff single adds 0.37 runs to that, a double .607, a triple .965, and a homerun adds 1 run.
With two outs and no one on, the difference is much more substantial.
A single adds .119 runs
A double adds .21 runs
A triple adds .318 runs
And a homerun adds 1 run.
Given that homerun values have always fallen between 1.9 and 2.0 runs going as far back as the late 80s, I’d rather have Player B, and understand why front offices are telling hitters to swing for the fences. I mean the Astros made the playoffs in 2015 with Altuve being the only batter to hit over .220 at one point in that lineup!