This has been a really interesting round for me. I have 29 teams. Of those, 5 of the draft picks were picks 18 or higher. Since 67% of the round 2 teams will advance to round 3, that means, 24 teams advancing would be "par". More than 24 means I did something right. Fewer means I messed up.
If the tournament ended right now (thru game 139), I would have 27 of 29 teams advancing, but three of those advancing teams are squarely on the bubble. 66-73 advance, 65-74 out. I have three exactly at 66-73.
Let's assume all 5 of those teams fail to advance. The record in 1-run games for those 5 teams is a combined 69-114. The average Expected winning% of those 5 teams is .483 (the average actual winning% is .456).
Now, I'm not complaining - just stating some facts. I am ultra-competitive, so I am thrilled to get 24+ teams to advance to round 3. Would I want to get all 29 teams into round 3? Of course, that would be quite a feat. But in reality, that's just way too many teams to effectively manage. Sure, I check all my boxscores everyday, but do I micro-manage each team, each day? Not even close. In fact, I recently realized one of my weaker team's best hitters (who is short in real-life PA) only had 50 plate appearances so far. I put that player into the starting lineup, and the team started winning. There's all sorts of lefty-right stuff I could be doing vs certain teams or ramping up my base-stealing frequency against bad catchers with certain teams... but I just don't have the time to do all of that. Most of my teams are on auto-pilot with a little tinkering now and then.
That being said, regardless if I end up with 24, 25, 26 or 27 teams advancing, I am looking forward to the round 3 draft.
3/10/2023 10:42 AM (edited)