Standings through 156 games

- 19 teams in very good shape...14 teams have clinched and 5 more are very likely to join them soon
- 11 teams on the Bubble for the final 5 spots (all teams currently with 77-78 wins)
- 3 teams still alive...barely (likely need to win out to have a shot)
- 15 teams eliminated

Rk	Lg#	Team	Owner	W-L	PCT	Exp.%	Chance .500
-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----
CLINCHED
1	1	Ash Burning on the Sisler	emanes10	99-57	0.635	0.622	100%
2	1	Babe Adams & Associates	schwarze	96-60	0.615	0.635	100%
3	1	Big Ed Walsh & The Smokey Spuds	ronthegenius	94-62	0.603	0.597	100%
4	1	Seven Edds and The Babe	footballmm11	93-63	0.596	0.565	100%
5	2	Sheff & Nomah	Dougsdawgs13	92-64	0.590	0.578	100%
6	2	Vida Blue & Associates	schwarze	85-71	0.545	0.601	100%
7	2	Range Factor	Bill_James47	85-71	0.545	0.597	100%
8	1	Tiny, Heinie Get Kiki in the Boudreau	redcped	85-71	0.545	0.584	100%
9	2	Paint It Black	pedrocerrano	85-71	0.545	0.526	100%
10	2	Swing and a Miss	DarthDurron	84-72	0.538	0.497	100%
11	1	Jimmies, Willies, Eddies, and an Arky	footballmm11	83-73	0.532	0.545	100%
12	2	Sudden Death	ybjsports	83-73	0.532	0.505	100%
13	2	The RAMS	richiebrown6	82-74	0.526	0.534	100%
14	2	Our one and only hope	BeAllEndAll	81-75	0.519	0.545	100%
VERY LIKELY
15	2	Stocked with Trout	SteveIzzy	80-76	0.513	0.543	99%
16	1	Red Rocks	ejstockman	80-76	0.513	0.522	99%
17	2	Thome's Homies	toysboys	80-76	0.513	0.508	99%
18	1	Walter Johnson & Associates	schwarze	80-76	0.513	0.486	98%
19	2	Purple Haze	pedrocerrano	80-76	0.513	0.470	98%
BUBBLE
20	1	Whirlpools & Eddies (Cicotte & Collins)	njbigwig	78-78	0.500	0.555	75%
21	1	Dazed and Confused	pedrocerrano	78-78	0.500	0.519	69%
22	2	Chico's Bail Bonds	barracuda3	78-78	0.500	0.484	63%
23	2	Vote for Pedro	footballmm11	78-78	0.500	0.477	61%
24	2	Big Hurts and a Dinelson	footballmm11	77-79	0.494	0.509	36%
-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----
25	1	Christy Mathewson & Associates	schwarze	77-79	0.494	0.506	36%
26	1	Honus Wagner & Associates	schwarze	77-79	0.494	0.504	35%
27	1	Into the Cryptic Mist	pedrocerrano	77-79	0.494	0.504	35%
28	2	Sutton in the Seventies	barracuda3	77-79	0.494	0.459	27%
29	2	This Team Is All Right!	thejuice6	77-79	0.494	0.459	27%
30	1	The Ches-bros	barracuda3	77-79	0.494	0.454	26%
STILL ALIVE
31	1	Hypnotized	pedrocerrano	76-80	0.487	0.462	8%
32	2	Some Dingers, Mostly Whiffs	redcped	75-81	0.481	0.522	2%
33	2	That Guy in the Geico Commercials	redcped	75-81	0.481	0.478	1%
ELIMINATED
34	2	Ron Guidry & Associates	schwarze	73-83	0.468	0.467	0%
35	2	Bob Gibson & Associates	schwarze	72-84	0.462	0.503	0%
36	2	Jacob deGrom & Associates	schwarze	72-84	0.462	0.432	0%
37	1	Five Babes and Four Noodles	redcped	71-85	0.455	0.462	0%
38	1	This Team Is (Fill In The Blank)	thejuice6	71-85	0.455	0.437	0%
39	1	Stan the Man , Tris and Mr. Howell	kstober	70-86	0.449	0.465	0%
40	1	Alexander's Ragtime Band	barracuda3	70-86	0.449	0.435	0%
41	1	Five Robin Roberts Means Goodbye	SteveIzzy	69-87	0.442	0.445	0%
42	1	The Wrong Lombardi	ybjsports	69-87	0.442	0.445	0%
43	2	5 Alberts and Todd	kstober	68-88	0.436	0.487	0%
44	1	Karma Camillians	toysboys	68-88	0.436	0.424	0%
45	2	Errors and Mistakes	Chisock	68-88	0.436	0.419	0%
46	1	Lou, Charlie and Ducky	kstober	67-89	0.429	0.420	0%
47	1	Pistol Pete and the deadball dreamers	glowguy	67-89	0.429	0.420	0%
48	2	Diamond Juice	calhoop	65-91	0.417	0.407	0%

Not yet dead!

https://youtu.be/Rwwd2YqDEpQ?si=thGHv6klZL5Nmq9W

Summary by Owner
Exp Adv = Teams expected to advance based on the "Chance .500" above
Clinched = 95%+ to advance
Bubble = 5% to 95%
Eliminated = below 5%

Owner	Teams	Top 24	Exp Adv	Clinched	Bubble	Eliminated	W%	Exp%
-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----
schwarze	8	3	3.7	3	2	3	0.507	0.517
pedrocerrano	5	3	3.1	2	3	0	0.508	0.496
footballmm11	4	4	3.0	2	2	0	0.531	0.524
barracuda3	4	1	1.2	0	3	1	0.484	0.458
redcped	4	1	1.0	1	0	3	0.491	0.512
emanes10	1	1	1.0	1	0	0	0.635	0.622
ronthegenius	1	1	1.0	1	0	0	0.603	0.597
Dougsdawgs13	1	1	1.0	1	0	0	0.590	0.578
Bill_James47	1	1	1.0	1	0	0	0.545	0.597
DarthDurron	1	1	1.0	1	0	0	0.538	0.497
richiebrown6	1	1	1.0	1	0	0	0.526	0.534
BeAllEndAll	1	1	1.0	1	0	0	0.519	0.545
ybjsports	2	1	1.0	1	0	1	0.487	0.475
SteveIzzy	2	1	1.0	1	0	1	0.478	0.494
ejstockman	1	1	1.0	1	0	0	0.513	0.522
toysboys	2	1	1.0	1	0	1	0.475	0.466
njbigwig	1	1	0.8	0	1	0	0.500	0.555
thejuice6	2	0	0.3	0	1	1	0.475	0.448
kstober	3	0	0.0	0	0	3	0.438	0.457
Chisock	1	0	0.0	0	0	1	0.436	0.419
glowguy	1	0	0.0	0	0	1	0.429	0.420
calhoop	1	0	0.0	0	0	1	0.417	0.407

Leading the league with -0.7 teams (advancing minus expected advancing) is so on par. I now have the #25 and #26 ranked teams (both with Exp Win% ,> .500) and the two teams with a combined record in 1-run games of 37-51.

Rank	Team Name	League	Owner	DraftPick	Record	Exp Win%	Home
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	---------	---------------	----------	---------	----------	---------
1	Ash Burning on the Sisler	1	emanes10	10	99-57	0.622	0.595
2	Babe Adams & Associates	1	schwarze	20	96-60	0.635	0.608
3	Big Ed Walsh & The Smokey Spuds	1	ronthegenius	1	94-62	0.597	0.608
4	Seven Edds and The Babe	1	footballmm11	9	93-63	0.565	0.623
5	Sheff & Nomah	2	Dougsdawgs13	7	92-64	0.578	0.646
6	Vida Blue & Associates	2	schwarze	22	85-71	0.601	0.570
7	Range Factor	2	Bill_James47	10	85-71	0.597	0.506
8	Tiny, Heinie Get Kiki in the Boudreau	1	redcped	16	85-71	0.584	0.519
9	Paint It Black	2	pedrocerrano	2	85-71	0.526	0.519
10	Swing and a Miss	2	DarthDurron	19	84-72	0.497	0.545
11	Jimmies, Willies, Eddies, and an Arky	1	footballmm11	23	83-73	0.545	0.570
12	Sudden Death	2	ybjsports	8	83-73	0.505	0.468
13	The RAMS	2	richiebrown6	20	82-74	0.534	0.544
14	Our one and only hope	2	BeAllEndAll	6	81-75	0.545	0.532
15	Stocked with Trout	2	SteveIzzy	23	80-76	0.543	0.571
16	Red Rocks	1	ejstockman	17	80-76	0.522	0.481
17	Thome's Homies	2	toysboys	9	80-76	0.508	0.468
18	Walter Johnson & Associates	1	schwarze	2	80-76	0.486	0.519
19	Purple Haze	2	pedrocerrano	14	80-76	0.470	0.494
20	Whirlpools & Eddies (Cicotte & Collins)	1	njbigwig	12	78-78	0.555	0.519
21	Dazed and Confused	1	pedrocerrano	8	78-78	0.519	0.494
22	Chico's Bail Bonds	2	barracuda3	4	78-78	0.484	0.481
23	Vote for Pedro	2	footballmm11	1	78-78	0.477	0.506
24	Big Hurts and a Dinelson	2	footballmm11	21	77-79	0.509	0.532
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	---------	---------------	----------	---------	----------	---------
25	Christy Mathewson & Associates	1	schwarze	5	77-79	0.506	0.468
26	Honus Wagner & Associates	1	schwarze	21	77-79	0.504	0.519
27	Into the Cryptic Mist	1	pedrocerrano	24	77-79	0.504	0.494
28	Sutton in the Seventies	2	barracuda3	15	77-79	0.459	0.557
29	This Team Is All Right!	2	thejuice6	24	77-79	0.459	0.468
30	The Ches-bros	1	barracuda3	14	77-79	0.454	0.506
31	Hypnotized	1	pedrocerrano	19	76-80	0.462	0.532
32	Some Dingers, Mostly Whiffs	2	redcped	16	75-81	0.522	0.532
33	That Guy in the Geico Commercials	2	redcped	5	75-81	0.478	0.429
34	Ron Guidry & Associates	2	schwarze	11	73-83	0.467	0.416
35	Bob Gibson & Associates	2	schwarze	3	72-84	0.503	0.443
36	Jacob deGrom & Associates	2	schwarze	17	72-84	0.432	0.416
37	Five Babes and Four Noodles	1	redcped	7	71-85	0.462	0.557
38	This Team Is (Fill In The Blank)	1	thejuice6	15	71-85	0.437	0.442
39	Stan the Man , Tris and Mr. Howell	1	kstober	22	70-86	0.465	0.532
40	Alexander's Ragtime Band	1	barracuda3	3	70-86	0.435	0.403
41	The Wrong Lombardi	1	ybjsports	13	69-87	0.445	0.456
42	Five Robin Roberts Means Goodbye	1	SteveIzzy	4	69-87	0.445	0.455
43	5 Alberts and Todd	2	kstober	18	68-88	0.487	0.405
44	Karma Camillians	1	toysboys	6	68-88	0.424	0.442
45	Errors and Mistakes	2	Chisock	13	68-88	0.419	0.416
46	Pistol Pete and the deadball dreamers	1	glowguy	18	67-89	0.420	0.456
47	Lou, Charlie and Ducky	1	kstober	11	67-89	0.420	0.354
48	Diamond Juice	2	calhoop	12	65-91	0.407	0.455

Bubble Teams Update (thru 157 games)
.

Rank	Team Name	Owner	Record	Exp Win%	Home
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	---------------	---------	----------	---------
20	Whirlpools & Eddies (Cicotte & Collins)	njbigwig	79-78	0.556	0.519
21	Chico's Bail Bonds	barracuda3	79-78	0.486	0.481
22	Dazed and Confused	pedrocerrano	78-79	0.518	0.494
23	Christy Mathewson & Associates	schwarze	78-79	0.507	0.475
24	Honus Wagner & Associates	schwarze	78-79	0.505	0.525
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	---------------	---------	----------	---------
25	Vote for Pedro	footballmm11	78-79	0.476	0.500
26	This Team Is All Right!	thejuice6	78-79	0.460	0.475
27	Big Hurts and a Dinelson	footballmm11	77-80	0.508	0.532
28	Into the Cryptic Mist	pedrocerrano	77-80	0.504	0.494
29	Sutton in the Seventies	barracuda3	77-80	0.455	0.550
30	The Ches-bros	barracuda3	77-80	0.454	0.500

I'm still trying to figure out how barracuda's "Chico's Bail Bonds" is 78-77 with a .485 Exp Win% despite being 12-22 in 1-run games. To have a negative run differential and be unlucky in close games usually doesn't equate to a team over .500.

My team being 1-8 in games decided by 10 or more runs probably has a lot to do with it, although I don't have a designated mop-up with a 31.97 ERA or anything so I'm not sure how meaningful that is. My pitching staff seems to have earned its drubbings.

Positive spin: I only have to worry about 1 draft for Round 7.

Bubble Teams update (thru 158 games)
.

Rank	Team Name	Owner	Record	Exp Win%	Home
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	---------------	---------	----------	---------
21	Whirlpools & Eddies (Cicotte & Collins)	njbigwig	79-79	0.555	0.519
22	Dazed and Confused	pedrocerrano	79-79	0.519	0.494
23	Honus Wagner & Associates	schwarze	79-79	0.506	0.531
24	This Team Is All Right!	thejuice6	79-79	0.461	0.481
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	---------------	---------	----------	---------
25	Christy Mathewson & Associates	schwarze	78-80	0.506	0.469
26	Vote for Pedro	footballmm11	78-80	0.474	0.494
27	Big Hurts and a Dinelson	footballmm11	77-81	0.507	0.532
28	Into the Cryptic Mist	pedrocerrano	77-81	0.502	0.494
29	Hypnotized	pedrocerrano	77-81	0.464	0.532
30	Sutton in the Seventies	barracuda3	77-81	0.453	0.543
31	The Ches-bros	barracuda3	77-81	0.446	0.494

Just ran another regression analysis on Draft Pick vs Wins. As predicted, there is almost no correlation at all. The correlation factor is +0.03. The difference between picking 1st and picking 24th is 81.4 vs 80.6 wins (per 162). Here is the table showing wins/losses by draft pick.
.

DraftPick	Wins	Losses	Rd 7	Winning%	Group of 4
-----------	-----------	-----------	-----------	-----------	-----------
1	172	144	1	0.544	0.502
2	166	150	2	0.525
3	145	171	0	0.459
4	151	165	1	0.478
5	154	162	0	0.487	0.501
6	151	165	1	0.478
7	165	151	1	0.522
8	163	153	2	0.516
9	176	140	2	0.557	0.513
10	187	129	2	0.592
11	141	175	0	0.446
12	144	172	1	0.456
13	139	177	0	0.440	0.483
14	159	157	1	0.503
15	149	167	0	0.472
16	163	153	1	0.516
17	154	162	1	0.487	0.501
18	136	180	0	0.430
19	163	153	1	0.516
20	180	136	2	0.570
21	156	160	1	0.494	0.502
22	156	160	1	0.494
23	166	150	2	0.525
24	156	160	1	0.494

When I split up the regression run for each league, separately, I get an interesting result.

League 1 shows a correlation coefficient of +0.001
League 2 shows a correlation coefficient of +0.077

During the draft, the league 1 drafters tended to go for the earlier draft picks, while the league 2 drafters tended to want to pick near the end. It seems the opposite was the better strategy.

Posted by schwarze on 12/19/2023 3:11:00 PM (view original):
Bubble Teams update (thru 158 games)
.

Rank	Team Name	Owner	Record	Exp Win%	Home
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	---------------	---------	----------	---------
21	Whirlpools & Eddies (Cicotte & Collins)	njbigwig	79-79	0.555	0.519
22	Dazed and Confused	pedrocerrano	79-79	0.519	0.494
23	Honus Wagner & Associates	schwarze	79-79	0.506	0.531
24	This Team Is All Right!	thejuice6	79-79	0.461	0.481
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	---------------	---------	----------	---------
25	Christy Mathewson & Associates	schwarze	78-80	0.506	0.469
26	Vote for Pedro	footballmm11	78-80	0.474	0.494
27	Big Hurts and a Dinelson	footballmm11	77-81	0.507	0.532
28	Into the Cryptic Mist	pedrocerrano	77-81	0.502	0.494
29	Hypnotized	pedrocerrano	77-81	0.464	0.532
30	Sutton in the Seventies	barracuda3	77-81	0.453	0.543
31	The Ches-bros	barracuda3	77-81	0.446	0.494

ugh brutal stretch...basically need to win out with both of my teams for them to have a shot

both my bubble teams lost again in the pm2 games :(

Bubble teams update (thru 159 games). Gonna be tough (not impossible) for a 77-82 to get in.
.

Rank	Team Name	Owner	Record	Exp Win%	Home
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	---------------	---------	----------	---------
21	Whirlpools & Eddies (Cicotte & Collins)	njbigwig	80-79	0.560	0.526
22	Dazed and Confused	pedrocerrano	80-79	0.522	0.500
23	Honus Wagner & Associates	schwarze	80-79	0.507	0.531
24	Christy Mathewson & Associates	schwarze	79-80	0.508	0.469
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	---------------	---------	----------	---------
25	This Team Is All Right!	thejuice6	79-80	0.455	0.481
26	Vote for Pedro	footballmm11	78-81	0.469	0.494
27	The Ches-bros	barracuda3	78-81	0.449	0.494
28	Some Dingers, Mostly Whiffs	redcped	77-82	0.525	0.531
29	Big Hurts and a Dinelson	footballmm11	77-82	0.506	0.526
30	Into the Cryptic Mist	pedrocerrano	77-82	0.497	0.487
31	That Guy in the Geico Commercials	redcped	77-82	0.482	0.436