Quote: Originally posted by a3morey on 5/26/2009see bottom of first page and continued on 2nd page
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/joe_posnanski/05/20/jack.cust/index.html?eref=T1
A moronic article on several fronts.
To use 1930 as a benchmark of typical historical performance is ridiculous. There hasn't been another year as atypical as 1930, with the possbile exception of 1968.
To assert that Jack Cust would get more hits if he struck out less, based on the observation that 1930 hitters had high batting averages and low K rates is logically flawed. This is based. Linking low K rates to higher batting averages across time is based on the assumption that BABIP has been constant across that same time frame. This is empirically untrue. And in fact, BABIP has been rising quite steadily since the 1950s, along with K rates. And ML batting averages are about the same as they were in the mid-50's, as a result.
Yes, BA has fluctuated, and BABIP and K rate are not perfectly correlated over time, but lower K rates won't increase batting averages.