To promote or not? Topic

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5/5/2010 2:51 PM
The object is to win. I don't know why it's such a difficult dilemma for you.
5/5/2010 2:56 PM
Quote: Originally Posted By MikeT23 on 5/05/2010I look at this season and two seasons in advance(trying to project my 3rd season roster if I make no moves other than losing FA). So I may have a 3 year pro that I project to start in S3. But, if the circumstance arises and he can help, I'll use him in the current season to help me reach the playoffs and adjust my 3 year plan. I'm not going to adjust my current needs to suit what I project 3 seasons down the road.
Bingo. Perfectly said.

It's a good thing to have a long-term plan for your players and your franchise. But you cannot have the plan be so rigid that you will refuse to adjust it accordingly as needs or opportunities arise. If you treat your plan with complete inflexibility, in the end, you're only hurting yourself.
5/5/2010 3:04 PM
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5/5/2010 3:44 PM
You have implied, when you suggested 3/20m might not be worth promoting to slightly increase your playoff chances, that you would be very hesitant to affect the current if it changed your future plans.

I don't think you've said you wouldn't do it. You just implied that you'd consider it a lot longer than the rest of us would.
5/5/2010 3:52 PM
It just seems you're placing a higher priority on the future, and I'm not saying it's wrong to do so, than most of us. Like I said, I can adjust my December 2010 plans in December 2010. I can't change my May 2010 moves in December 2010.
5/5/2010 3:53 PM
There is no hard-and-fast rule in situations like these if you want to be successful long-term. Saying you should *always* keep the guy in the minors is no more correct than saying you should *always* promote the guy if it increases your playoff chances by any small degree. You have to look at the circumstances on a case-by-case basis.

Here, you have the question of whether Darwin Martin is a sufficient upgrade over Chad Butler and how likely whatever difference exists is likely to increase your odds of making the playoffs. Weighed against whatever that increased likelihood, you have to consider the future cap implications of having multiple high OVR players become arb-eligible together.

I am going to assume you aren't facing fatigue issues at the ML level, so the difference between Martin and Butler is purely an issue of effectiveness. So below (for formatting purposes) are the two ratings lines -







There's no question that Martin is better, right now, but how much of an improvement over Butler can the OP reasonably expect (and is it worth the $ issues)? Butler has a 1.20 WHIP and 3.74 ERA so far this season, certainly nothing too shabby. Over the remaning 70 games, in the 4-man rotation being run, whoever has the rotation spot will make 17-18 starts. For comparison purposes, have the starter everage between 6 and 7 IP per start. Further assume Martin does well and posts the same ML ERA that he has in his minor league career (a BIG assumption) - he would have an ERA of 3.11.

With those assumptions, how will the two SP compare over the rest of the regular season (projected ~113 IP, reached by 17.5*6.5)?

Butler, at 3.74, would allow ~47 ER. Martin, at 3.11, would allow ~39 ER. An 8-run difference, spread out over 17-18 starts.



OP, your team is underperforming at the moment, with a .537 Expected Winning Percentage and only a .495 Actual Winning Percentage. Your pitching staff, particular your startin pitching has not been a problem. Where others teams seem to be performing better than you is offense and closing out game.

With respect to the latter, your 8-14 record in 1-run games (no doubt hurt by the performance of Louie Olmedo and his 1.53 WHIP, 5.91 ERA, 2W-7L, 14/20 saves record). If I am looking at your budget/payroll correctly, your players current cost $44.1M. Even after transfers into prospect budget, your player budget is $59M. I'd explore taking on the expiring high-priced contract of a veteran closer/setup A or difference-making bat before I promoted Martin. You may be able to pick up most, if not all, of the 8 runs he projects to save without taking on any financial obligations beyond this season and not giving yourself a headache in 3 seasons when you are paying $40M+ out in arb in one year.

Of course, things change if you expect Butler to post a 5.50 ERA or Martin to post a 2.50 ERA, but even then you make the determination on a case-by-case basis - don't get wed to "rules".
5/5/2010 4:20 PM
Martin

EventSeasonCNPWLHRHBEBRBUPPSTCTLHRHVEGBP1P2P3P4P5
Current-19520192295674908672675082878083520
5/5/2010 4:20 PM
Butler

EventSeasonCNPWLHRHBEBRBUPPSTCTLHRHVEGBP1P2P3P4P5
Current-3501737171669696968806138497775745854
5/5/2010 4:21 PM
Also, things like if you have a taker for Olmedo in trade and would move Butler into his spot need to be weighed. But just think long and hard about what the true benefit of a promotion at this point is and whether that is worth it in the long run. Simply saying "it will be of *some* help to making the playoffs" isn't reason enough, IMO.

And, come playoff time if you make it, Martin will be in the rotation regardless (make sure to have him on the 40-man) so just ignore the guy who said to promote him before expansion so he would be eligible. If he's on the 40, he'll be eligible anyway, and he won't accrue ML service time for pitching in the ML playoffs.
5/5/2010 4:29 PM
Quote: Originally posted by zbrent716 on 5/05/2010Also, things like if you have a taker for Olmedo in trade and would move Butler into his spot need to be weighed. But just think long and hard about what the true benefit of a promotion at this point is and whether that is worth it in the long run. Simply saying "it will be of *some* help to making the playoffs" isn't reason enough, IMO.

And, come playoff time if you make it, Martin will be in the rotation regardless (make sure to have him on the 40-man) so just ignore the guy who said to promote him before expansion so he would be eligible. If he's on the 40, he'll be eligible anyway, and he won't accrue ML service time for pitching in the ML playoffs.

+1, thank god a voice of reason...
5/6/2010 1:12 AM
It's not as if one can say "I'm gonna trade to address this need" and it magically happens. Usually you have to give something up.
5/6/2010 7:06 AM
Quote: If he's on the 40, he'll be eligible anyway, and he won't accrue ML service time for pitching in the ML playoffs.

Wait... what? This is true?
5/6/2010 8:02 AM
Quote: Originally Posted By jtrinsey on 5/06/2010
Quote: If he's on the 40, he'll be eligible anyway, and he won't accrue ML service time for pitching in the ML playoffs.

Wait... what? This is true
Yes. I've done it a couple of times.
5/6/2010 8:09 AM
I wish I would have read some of these latest comments this morning, they may have swayed me back towards being patient. I ended up promoting him and he'll be taking the 2nd start against my division rival (still 1 game back). Butler moves to LRA and actually should still see a lot of innings.

As someone pointed out, Louis Olmedo in the bullpen is killing me. Seems to me he's severely underperforming. Because Darwin can go 8 innings easily I can avoid my bullpen a bit more and that can only help.

I also had my starting LF come back from a 30-day injury today, so it feels like I made 2 acquisitions today.
5/6/2010 9:14 AM
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