Phelan - 17 EE's, None Are Guards Topic

Let me think some about the listed position issue.  I could easily revert to using overall rating, but I think everyone can agree that it's not always a very good representation of talent.
6/27/2012 2:51 PM
If you discount durability and make a tweak with respect to work ethic, I think overally rating is a pretty good indicator of a player's ability.
6/27/2012 2:54 PM
Posted by gillispie1 on 6/27/2012 2:18:00 PM (view original):
seble - thanks for the quick responses! as professor said, its MUCH appreciated. those numbers you posted on people deciding to stay makes it sound like roughly half stayed. thats interesting - but i am a little concerned at the ratios, based on the sheer number of specific guards listed, if we assume as many guards decided to stay as bigs, but only one guard (or zero) decided to leave early, compared to teens of bigs - that just sounds kind of skewed. i dont know if its just bad luck, but if guards and bigs make decisions similarly, it seems pretty unlikely the current scenario would happen. 1 guard out of 9, if its 50/50, is a 1 in 50 scenario (ish). if its 0 out of 8 in the other world, that would be 1 in 256, 0 in 10, 1 in 1024. are my numbers off? or did that we get that extreme of an RNG? or am i missing something (my money is on the latter, for what its worth - which is exactly why i am so curious).

i would also like to hear the answer to the PG/SG equation thing. do you consider players by listed position? this would be important to know - then, for example, a SG who is really a PG, is better than an equally talented PG, assuming he will be looked upon less favorably as a SG. similarly with SGs in PG clothing, and all other cases like that.

also, can you confirm that there is nothing in place (other than 6 limit) that makes teams less likely to lose a bunch of EEs? i never saw anything in your notes or posts about it, like, the 2nd player to get drafted is more likely to opt to stay, or anything like that. yet, the numbers look fairly balanced, except that the couple schools who lost multiple don't really sound right. re: BC - great or not, players largely dont get drafted off schools out of the limelight, you cant prove you are the best if you never even play the good. and the common scenario for BC type situation - a bad team with a couple great players - is that a coach leaves, a sim takes over, a new coach comes in, trying to capitalize on the few good players left before they are gone. in that case, those couple players can be the difference between a team that is a complete wreck, and a salvageable team. i think its in our best interests to keep these kinds of situations salvageable, and it is more realistic, i think.

also, can someone in one of those worlds post a bit more about the BYU situation? did BYU really lose 3 early? that just sounds wrong, unless its you know, a lost myth st bon type of mid major. if so, then they probably should have lost 4 or 5 ;) but really -  can anyone in that world elaborate a bit? would love to see it!

thanks again seble for your more active role these days. it is arguably the best change ive ever seen in HD.
Like I mentioned, sample size is very small at this point, and the differences just between Naismith and Phelan should tell us that there can be quite a variance on how things play out. 

There is no factor in place (other than the max lost players per team) that affects an early entry decision related to teammates having left.


6/27/2012 2:54 PM
No midmajors lost anyone gillespie, let alone 3 from BYU.

Regarding BC those two players were great, but the team sucked because they had 4 walk-ons. I don't know if you should get to keep players because you did miserable during recruiting.
6/27/2012 3:03 PM
Posted by seble on 6/27/2012 1:57:00 PM (view original):
Posted by professor17 on 6/27/2012 1:52:00 PM (view original):
Posted by seble on 6/27/2012 1:43:00 PM (view original):
Posted by professor17 on 6/27/2012 1:39:00 PM (view original):
Posted by seble on 6/27/2012 1:07:00 PM (view original):
professor - are there PGs that you see that you think should have gone early?
At the risk of ******* off the coaches of these players (there's one of my own on the list as well), here's a not-all-inclusive list of guards in Phelan that I thought would have been serious candidates for going EE. If I have time I'll edit later to include player links: 

Alfredo Russo - Michigan St.    http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2125679
Chad Custard - Illinois  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2125597
Virgil Montijo - Virginia  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2126009
Teodoro Conti - Miami-FL  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2125671
Carroll Lynch - Utah  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2125985
Richard Shillings - Minnesota  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2125682
Robert Billy - Colorado  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2125450
Richard Higgins - Texas  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2153041
Benjamin McLeod - Duke  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2152466
Mark Townsend - Syracuse  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2153000
Jason Aikin - Colorado  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2152422
James Spalding - Duke  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2152464
Dave Silvester - California  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2152379
Jason Lindberg - Virginia  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2153098
Wayne Saunders - Stanford  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2152989
Robbie Lambert - Arizona  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2125334
Marc Rath - Washington  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2153111

Seriously, not a single one of these guys went EE? 
Custard, Billy, Higgins, McLeod,  Townsend,  and Spalding were in range to be drafted but opted to stay in school.  The rest were not projected to be drafted.
Then I guess I would argue that if guys like: 

Teodoro Conti (http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2125671),
Virgil Montijo (http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2126009)
and Dave Silvester (http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2152379)

are not even in the range to be drafted, that the EE/draft logic is still significantly undervaluing guards. Take a look at those guys. Does anyone really think those players shouldn't even get drafted? 
Conti has only 74 passing, a key rating for PG. Montijo is 76 in BH and 84 in Passing, not exactly elite.  Silvester is good, but I'm betting all the drafted players are better. 
by the way, conti and monijo are insanely good. ridiculously good. give me a couple guys like that and ill instantly go from a 30th or so in the nation team, to 10th or better.

even a guy like silverster - would love to have him. hes so good. only like 8 pass, 7 ath, 6 spd away from spalding, who is damn near perfect as a guard. and hes damn near perfect on defense. doesn't that show there is a problem, in recruit generation? you have THAT good of a defender, who is very far from a slouch after wards, and hes not even low end draft material? there are way too many players who are near perfect defenders.

and you really hit the nail on the head yourself, when you said we are really splitting hairs talking about players who got drafted and those who barely didn't. and THAT is there problem, clear as day, for all to see. tell me a guard who barely missed the 1st round who was a hair split away from being john wall. the guys who miss the real draft are usually significantly different than those who are low end first rounders. in HD, that is not the case. and that is why so much of the strategy is lost in d1 - game planning, team planning (putting players together with complementary abilities and good synergy). these things are not really factors when there are 15 or 20 teams with multiple guys BETTER than silvester in every class. if hes outside the draft (60th in the country or so), and you have 15-20 programs dominating recruiting, like they do, then logic stands you are going to get multiple of these guys in each class. wheres the fun in putting you ungodly good 99 in everything guy against a "not exactly elite" guy like montijo, who is maybe a dozen points lower, all told? wheres the fun in trying to find your opponents weakness when its a guy like silvester who can do everything really well?
6/27/2012 3:04 PM
Posted by stinenavy on 6/27/2012 3:03:00 PM (view original):
No midmajors lost anyone gillespie, let alone 3 from BYU.

Regarding BC those two players were great, but the team sucked because they had 4 walk-ons. I don't know if you should get to keep players because you did miserable during recruiting.
ah, that was from the tark thread, which is old-logic. very glad to hear that was pre-new logic. 
6/27/2012 3:06 PM
One thing I'm not clear on: What makes a player decide to stay in school if he's projected to be drafted?
6/27/2012 3:35 PM
Just for reference here is a the real world early entry list from 2011.  Not going to comment any more on it because, well, just STARTED division two and haven't tried division one.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/story/14878964/nba-draft-early-entry-commitments
6/27/2012 4:09 PM
Posted by jbasnight on 6/27/2012 3:35:00 PM (view original):
One thing I'm not clear on: What makes a player decide to stay in school if he's projected to be drafted?
well, sounds like its DEFINITELY not the old hidden value that was not so hidden, or anything else based on the recruit himself. interesting question though. seems like the realm of possibility is what, his draft stock, his team, and how they did that season? i would guess seble did not include the latter, and i would sort of guess its just his draft stock plus a random factor, but im not sure. i think he said something about reducing a random factor, but im not sure if that means its totally gone now, i would guess not.
6/27/2012 5:45 PM
Posted by seble on 6/27/2012 1:43:00 PM (view original):
Posted by professor17 on 6/27/2012 1:39:00 PM (view original):
Posted by seble on 6/27/2012 1:07:00 PM (view original):
professor - are there PGs that you see that you think should have gone early?
At the risk of ******* off the coaches of these players (there's one of my own on the list as well), here's a not-all-inclusive list of guards in Phelan that I thought would have been serious candidates for going EE. If I have time I'll edit later to include player links: 

Alfredo Russo - Michigan St.    http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2125679
Chad Custard - Illinois  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2125597
Virgil Montijo - Virginia  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2126009
Teodoro Conti - Miami-FL  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2125671
Carroll Lynch - Utah  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2125985
Richard Shillings - Minnesota  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2125682
Robert Billy - Colorado  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2125450
Richard Higgins - Texas  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2153041
Benjamin McLeod - Duke  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2152466
Mark Townsend - Syracuse  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2153000
Jason Aikin - Colorado  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2152422
James Spalding - Duke  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2152464
Dave Silvester - California  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2152379
Jason Lindberg - Virginia  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2153098
Wayne Saunders - Stanford  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2152989
Robbie Lambert - Arizona  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2125334
Marc Rath - Washington  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2153111

Seriously, not a single one of these guys went EE? 
Custard, Billy, Higgins, McLeod,  Townsend,  and Spalding were in range to be drafted but opted to stay in school.  The rest were not projected to be drafted.
Would it be a good idea to make a "Draft Projection" that is available to coaches (similar to the post-season projection) so you have an idea of whether your player is projected to be drafted. It sounds like if they are not projected to be drafted, the player is safe from an EE. If he is projected to be drafted, his chances of going EE are higher the higher up the board he is. This could help you know whether you have to plan for more spots or not next season.

6/27/2012 5:49 PM
Posted by shqipta on 6/27/2012 5:49:00 PM (view original):
Posted by seble on 6/27/2012 1:43:00 PM (view original):
Posted by professor17 on 6/27/2012 1:39:00 PM (view original):
Posted by seble on 6/27/2012 1:07:00 PM (view original):
professor - are there PGs that you see that you think should have gone early?
At the risk of ******* off the coaches of these players (there's one of my own on the list as well), here's a not-all-inclusive list of guards in Phelan that I thought would have been serious candidates for going EE. If I have time I'll edit later to include player links: 

Alfredo Russo - Michigan St.    http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2125679
Chad Custard - Illinois  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2125597
Virgil Montijo - Virginia  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2126009
Teodoro Conti - Miami-FL  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2125671
Carroll Lynch - Utah  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2125985
Richard Shillings - Minnesota  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2125682
Robert Billy - Colorado  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2125450
Richard Higgins - Texas  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2153041
Benjamin McLeod - Duke  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2152466
Mark Townsend - Syracuse  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2153000
Jason Aikin - Colorado  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2152422
James Spalding - Duke  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2152464
Dave Silvester - California  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2152379
Jason Lindberg - Virginia  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2153098
Wayne Saunders - Stanford  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2152989
Robbie Lambert - Arizona  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2125334
Marc Rath - Washington  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2153111

Seriously, not a single one of these guys went EE? 
Custard, Billy, Higgins, McLeod,  Townsend,  and Spalding were in range to be drafted but opted to stay in school.  The rest were not projected to be drafted.
Would it be a good idea to make a "Draft Projection" that is available to coaches (similar to the post-season projection) so you have an idea of whether your player is projected to be drafted. It sounds like if they are not projected to be drafted, the player is safe from an EE. If he is projected to be drafted, his chances of going EE are higher the higher up the board he is. This could help you know whether you have to plan for more spots or not next season.

sounds good, but might lead to folks gaming the system by keeping practice minutes and improvement down so the player in jeopardy doesn't get as good as some of the others that are projected maybe?
6/27/2012 7:13 PM
Alternatively, they could only show the projection about your own players and not viewable about other players.  And if you try to keep improvement down by not playing the player and giving all the practice minutes to study hall or something, then you run the risk of that player transferring anyhow.
6/27/2012 7:29 PM
Posted by seble on 6/27/2012 1:36:00 PM (view original):
Posted by grecianfox on 6/27/2012 1:19:00 PM (view original):
Boston College in Naismith went 4-23 (1-15 in conference) and lost two players to EE. Granted they were talented players but it is really going to be tough going forward.
That team success (or lack thereof) did deflate the draft stock of those two players.  BC is still an A- prestige though, so that offsets it some.
what's their prestige going to be when the coach leaves, as he says he'll be doing? I can't blame him-- lost freshman bigs in each of the last 2 seasons, now loses 2 early coming off a 4-23 season? 

The system really needs to limit losing multiple players, as it crushes teams. Not eliminate it, but make each successive player less likely to go.
6/28/2012 9:33 AM
Posted by wronoj on 6/28/2012 9:33:00 AM (view original):
Posted by seble on 6/27/2012 1:36:00 PM (view original):
Posted by grecianfox on 6/27/2012 1:19:00 PM (view original):
Boston College in Naismith went 4-23 (1-15 in conference) and lost two players to EE. Granted they were talented players but it is really going to be tough going forward.
That team success (or lack thereof) did deflate the draft stock of those two players.  BC is still an A- prestige though, so that offsets it some.
what's their prestige going to be when the coach leaves, as he says he'll be doing? I can't blame him-- lost freshman bigs in each of the last 2 seasons, now loses 2 early coming off a 4-23 season? 

The system really needs to limit losing multiple players, as it crushes teams. Not eliminate it, but make each successive player less likely to go.
i agree. i thought this was the major complaint about EEs the whole time, im honestly surprised we have a system now with so many changes, that does not address this issue. its one thing for a national champion to lose 2-3 players, or even for a final 4 team. its another thing completely when you have 2nd round/s16 type, or even worse teams losing 2-3 players, it just hurts that team too bad. when you get your place in the lime light and now have the prestige to show for it, reloading is a very different proposition. but still, its no fun to lose 4-5 players off those championship teams either, as has often been the case.

i can't imagine its that difficult to have the top player on the team (by draft stock) decide, and if he decides to go, reduce the chance of the next guy going. this reduction could even play off the success of the team if needed. early entries are important to keep things in balance, but when you get hit abnormally hard, it really just makes the game a lot less fun.
6/28/2012 10:00 AM
Posted by swiftwsut on 6/28/2012 2:02:00 PM (view original):
Posted by seble on 6/27/2012 1:43:00 PM (view original):
Posted by professor17 on 6/27/2012 1:39:00 PM (view original):
Posted by seble on 6/27/2012 1:07:00 PM (view original):
professor - are there PGs that you see that you think should have gone early?
At the risk of ******* off the coaches of these players (there's one of my own on the list as well), here's a not-all-inclusive list of guards in Phelan that I thought would have been serious candidates for going EE. If I have time I'll edit later to include player links: 

Alfredo Russo - Michigan St.    http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2125679
Chad Custard - Illinois  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2125597
Virgil Montijo - Virginia  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2126009
Teodoro Conti - Miami-FL  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2125671
Carroll Lynch - Utah  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2125985
Richard Shillings - Minnesota  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2125682
Robert Billy - Colorado  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2125450
Richard Higgins - Texas  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2153041
Benjamin McLeod - Duke  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2152466
Mark Townsend - Syracuse  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2153000
Jason Aikin - Colorado  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2152422
James Spalding - Duke  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2152464
Dave Silvester - California  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2152379
Jason Lindberg - Virginia  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2153098
Wayne Saunders - Stanford  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2152989
Robbie Lambert - Arizona  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2125334
Marc Rath - Washington  http://www.wisjournal.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2153111

Seriously, not a single one of these guys went EE? 
Custard, Billy, Higgins, McLeod,  Townsend,  and Spalding were in range to be drafted but opted to stay in school.  The rest were not projected to be drafted.
If Higgins would have left, I would have GREATLY considered not only dropping this team, but dropping high level d-1 and maybe the whole game all together. The kid is a Freshman for god sake. I already lost 2 EE guards in the past 3 seasons (soph/JR), if i would have lost a freshman that would have sent me over the edge. Trust me, guards will EE if they are good enough, even in the old logic.
    
6/28/2012 2:04 PM
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