Posted by schwarze on 3/27/2023 2:35:00 PM (view original):
League 10, Pick 3
AL East, Pick 1
2016 Chicago Cubs, 2016 Los Angeles Dodgers, 2017 New York Yankees

This selection was made with pick #15 in the "Top 20 Draft" and is the last of my Top 20 picks. In retrospect, I should have used this selection on a different team. The second 2016 Cubs team went tenth in this league's draft, so clearly they weren't that coveted. My logic was this. They were the highest team listed in this division, by a wide margin. I grabbed the AL version, because knowing I had two teams in this league, I didn't want to have to draft a team from 2020-22 and have to deal with the innings shortage. This team provide three starting pitchers (590 IPs), a stud closer, Rizzo, Zobrist, K.Bryant and J.Baez in the infield. A solid start.

Oh, and regarding my formula for ranking teams, it almost pegged this division's draft perfectly. 11 of what I had listed as top 12 teams in this division were drafted.

Ironically, even though this was the fourth team I selected, it was one of the last teams I finished as this draft took a bit of time to complete. I was thrilled the 2016 Dodgers made it back to me. (They went 5th in the NL West draft). Led by Kershaw's awesome season, that's 5 pitchers and another 584 innings added to a strong pitching staff. Corey Seager and Justin Turner are the only hitters of note. With one team remaining, somehow, I still need three OFs and a SP (my four SPs only have 766 innings). The 2017 Yankees don;t have 3 OFs, but they have one really good OF (Aaron Judge), a low-OB-HR-heavy catcher (Gary Sanchez) and a really good SP (Luis Severino) plus some added RP help.

Prediction: 83-79
I'm not very happy with how this roster turned out. The hitting seems pretty weak (i.e., I am starting Dexter Fowler and Brett Gardner in the OF). The pitching is deep, but will most likely underachieve due to below average defense. Although I think the pitching will keep this team at or above .500, it wouldn't shock me if they lost 85 games. I can't believe I wasted a Top 20 pick on what will essentially be a .500 team. I should have taken the obvious choice of the 2002 Red Sox instead (who kstober took one pick after me).

Current Overall Rank: 160th
Current Record: 76-84
League Hitting Rank: 12th
League Pitching Rank: 16th

The key sentence in my pre-season writeup... "It wouldn't shock me if they lose 85 games". As I write this, I see they just blew a 10th inning lead and lost game #85. I posted the following in the Owners Forum on 5/20 and it pretty much sums up this Cubs' season... "Up 5-0, going into bottom of 8th, bullpen comes in... you know how the story ends. Chapman (0.86 whip), Kershaw (0.72), Jansen (0.67) allow 6 runs in 1 combined inning to lose 6-5.". I can'[t wait till the season ends so I don't have to look at this team again.

Posted by 3dayrotation on 3/28/2023 1:22:00 PM (view original):
League 9, Pick 21

2006 Mets & Yankees
I very much wanted the NL but it was not to be (picks before me and the last spot being saved for Chisock at 23). Stuck in the AL I took the last pick in the East. It looks like the other teams will have the better pitching no matter where I go here. These two teams give me a ton of offense, cover every position well and leave me with a rock star bench. Posada at catcher. Delgado, Cano, Jeter and Wright around the infield. Beltran, Abreau and Damon in the outfield. A-rod and Giambi platooning at DH. Reyes on the bench. Feels like an all-star offense and I still have a whole team to pick. I looked at some other teams for some pitching but in the end knowing I did not even have to look at bats for my last pick settled me. Now I will have 3 teams in the tournament and each of them heavy on the hitting side.

2004 Twins
I need pitching. This one has the most of it as far as I can see. Santana and Radke in the rotation. Crain, Nathan and Rincon in the bullpen. It's BAD that Radke is my #2 pitcher. Very bad. My relievers are better than my starters but it's not a high bar. Need a 6th so my second catcher will be the 122 PA Mauer. He will actually be a better bat AND glove when filling in for Posada.

Outlook:
My lowest starting OPS is Posada's .866 followed by Abreau's .886. We should get on base, hit for average and hit for power. We have two guys with more than 30 SB and a couple more in the 20's. We can play defense. Pitching wins championships but hitting can win divisions, right? Feel like I repeated the same outlook multiple times here.

82-79 with one game left. outside the play-offs. below league average ops. right around league average most everywhere besides stolen basses. didn't get what i wanted from the bats but it looks like the D kept me above water.

My only real regret from Rnd 3 was with my last pick in Lg 8. I had to get a 2B and a SP. This was my toughest decision but I finally went with the '98 Astros getting Biggio and Randy Johnson. They also gave me some role players; Alou, Ausmus, Everett and Wagner. Biggio did OK: .280 .336! .403, 55 SB, .988 / 4.55 fielding. Johnson (9-15, 6.66) for a team at 91-70 sucked! And Wagner I couldn't even use (0-1-0, 8.83 in 17.3).

The team I went back and forth on was 1997 Montreal. I probably would have won 100 games with '97 Pedro Martinez instead of perpetually bad (for me) Randy Johnson.

Posted by richiebrown6 on 4/17/2023 4:25:00 PM (view original):
Very late on all this due to a busy past couple of weeks, but I'll throw it out here anyway in case anyone is interested:

League 9, Pick 9 - AL Central: 2007 Red Sox/2008 Brewers/2007 Phillies

With just 1 team in the tourney, I had a moderately successful Round 1, then won the World Series in League 1 in the deadball era. Coming off a World Series, I did not want to fall flat in Round 3. I was hoping for a League 10 assignment, as I'm most active with watching more current baseball, but got a decent assignment with League 9. After looking into League 9, I knew I wanted to be in the American League, as I didn't want to get into the craziness with 1998-2004 featuring crazy homer totals and the insane Pedro/Bonds seasons. So in the American League, I glanced over some teams over 2004-2010, and really only liked the 2006-2008 teams.

So I knew I wanted to play in the AL Central, regardless of how it shook out. Barracuda took the 2006 Minnesota Twins first (which was the clear best team), but I thought there were enough good teams that I'd be able to still compete and maybe still sneak in another division title (or maybe even another World Series if everything broke right). After deciding on the AL Central, I had a lot of teams I was considering with the first pick. As a Phillies fan, I really wanted the 2007 Phillies, but they didn't have the pitching of a 1st pick in this format, and there were other offensive powerhouse options to be had later on. The 2007 Padres and 2008 Brewers both had the best pitching staffs in the league (probably even better than the 06 Twins), but I didn't like their offenses enough to go that route in Round 1. However, there was one team that really stood out:

2007 Boston Red Sox. This was a team I knew I'd have no trouble filling 9 spots, and really could have filled 15 with this fantastic team. They don't have many exceptional players, but the depth is just absolutely insane compared to the rest of the teams in the league. There was not a single position that this team didn't cover, and cover well. This team gives me some incredible versatility to just take the best teams available for the next couple of rounds, and not worry about the fit. The only thing this team lacks is a solid starting pitching staff, so I knew with my next pick I had to go either with the 08 Brewers or 07 Padres, if either of them fell.

2008 Milwaukee Brewers. gworear took 2 of my 5 favorite options, but I was lucky enough that the Brewers fell back to me. This had me feeling pretty good about my chances; I had the best versatility in the league with the 07 Red Sox, and I felt barracuda would struggle to get great pitching depth behind 06 Santana. The Brewers gave me clear pitching with Sheets/Sabathia/Bush to join Beckett, along with a good defensive catcher in Jason Kendall, a solid outfielder in Braun, and some decent depth behind them. As I mentioned before, I really wanted the 2007 Phillies, but elected to pick depth and pitching first. However, I knew barracuda was probably going to have to take teams with good starting pitching with both picks at the 2-3 turn, so I thought they'd come back to me.

2007 Phillies. Sure enough, they did! This pick had me thrilled with my team; from my rankings of this division, I had managed to seize my 2,3, and 4 ranked teams in this division. (The 06 Twins being 1, and then the 06 Yankees being 5 and 07 Padres being 6). This Phillies team just has the most phenomenal hitting repertoire in the league. This meant I'd have to use 4 of my 9 Red Sox picks to make a barely passable bullpen, and pass up on 07 Pedroia, but the 07 Phillies provide exceptional starters at 2B, SS and OF, along with several solid bench options. Hamels will round out my rotation, as well.

Overall, I was thrilled with how this team turned out post-draft. I was confident I had the best team in the division, and felt that I could definitely make the playoffs again in Round 3. I expected to have a phenomenal offense, with the pitching doing just enough to keep my team near the top of the division standings. Post-Draft Prediction: Division winner, 90-72.

Since I have the benefit of doing this 50 games in, I may as well reflect on the start of the season. I expected my offense to be great, but it's really only been solid so far. Jimmy Rollins has been absolutely incredible as he's right in the MVP race, and CC Sabathia is right there in the Cy Young, as well. However, the team just doesn't have the offensive firepower I was expecting. That being said, the starting pitching has been far better than expected, as they've been very strong. The bullpen lacks depth and it shows, but the team is hanging in there, and I'm excited with the success so far. Now, just hoping that the team can step it up and try to take a division where all 4 teams are within 3 games and anyone could take it!

Didn't get the division, but just won the wild card spot! This division in League 9 featured all 4 teams making it to Round 4, so I'm happy to sneak into the playoffs ahead of the legend barracuda after my team fell apart late in the year. The hitting really carried the team in the 2nd half, and I look forward to seeing how they fare in the playoffs!

Posted by schwarze on 3/27/2023 3:40:00 PM (view original):
League 2, Pick 2
AL East, Pick 2
1916 Boston Red Sox, 1915 St. Louis Terriers, 1914 Indianapolis Hoosier-Feds

I really like the 1916 Red Sox with Dutch Leonard, Rube Foster, Joe Wood, Ernie Shore & Tris Speaker. They were ranked very high in my system and I even considered them with a Top 20 pick. In retrospect, the better choice would have been the 1915 Detroit Tigers or either the 1915 or 1916 White Sox, due to the lack of elite offensive players in this league. There were other good pitching options if I missed out on these Red Sox, but there weren't nearly as many good hitting options. But since this was the second choice in the division, surely, either the 1915 or 1916 White Sox or the 1915 Tigers would make it back to me.

Nope. All three teams I wanted got taken in the next four picks. Damn it! I ended up taking the little known 1915 St. Louis Terriers with my second pick. This team has 7 starting batters with an OPS+ over 100, but none over 120. The aforementioned White Sox and Tigers teams had at least two stud hitters on them. I grabbed this team to give myself lots of options on the next pick. And oh by the way, they have two stud SPs (Davenport, Plank) so at least I deny these pitchers to anybody else. I see toysboys went with two offensive juggernauts 1914 A's and Phillies. I considered the A's, but don't want to deal with Eddie Collins D- range at 2B. I'm surprised he didn't select another team with pitching... I guess he is riding with the 1914 Whales pitching staff.

I needed at least one more stud hitter to go with '14 Speaker, so I went with '14 Benny Kauff (.370, .448, .549) from the Indianapolis Hoosier-Feds (I would love to know the origin of that team name). This team also gave me a starting shortstop, third baseman and catcher. Cy Falkenberg's 400 innings (1.12 whip) will be used in long relief and mopup.

Prediction: 82-80
Part of the "luck" of drafting is getting the right spot in the draft order of whatever division you are playing in. Picking in the middle rounds, you can see what others have done and pick the division that you think you can make the best roster while also avoiding some of the sharks. It was unlucky that ronthegenius and kstober joined this division after I made my selection and they did not make any errors with their draft picks. I do think this division will have the best overall record in league 2. I could see all four teams finishing above .500. Sadly, I may have the worst of the four teams.

Current Overall Rank: 20th
Current Record: 93-68
League Hitting Rank: 14th
League Pitching Rank: 5th

This team was a pleasant surprise, albeit a bit lucky (31-21 in 1-run games). The St. Louis Terriers pitching duo of Davenport (20-12) & Plank (21-7) combined to go 41-19. '14 Dutch Leonard was used mostly out of the pen and finished at only 13-14, but was 24/25 on saves and his 2.89 ERA led both leagues. Plank (3.52) was 7th in ERA. Benny Kauff was very good (.359, .412, .486) but doesn't crack the top 5 in MVP but my '14 Speaker (.317, .397, .463, 128 RBIs) is ranked 4th in MVP, partly thanks to his 19 + plays in CF and 13 + plays at 1B as he played about half the season at each position..

For what it's worth, my regret on passing on the 1915 Tigers and/or the 1916 White Sox was spot on. kstober grabbed both of those teams and his squad is winning my division at 95-66. The other 1916 White Sox team (emanes10) is 93-68 in the NL Central.

Posted by schwarze on 3/28/2023 10:27:00 AM (view original):
League 1, Pick 4
NL West, Pick 1
1906 Cubs, 1906 Browns, 1908 Pirates

Not surprising that my formula had this team ranked high. But I didn't select this team in the Top 20, because there were two options. barracuda3 grabbed one of the 1906 Cubs options with pick 10 of the Top 20. Ironically, I went with the 2016 Cubs over the 1906 Cubs with my late Top 20 pick. So, I guess I was lucky I was able to grab them with pick 4 in this league (pedro took '03 Naps first, barracuda3 '06 Cubs, d_rock97 '14 Red Sox). d_rock97 may have taken them instead if he had realized '06 Cubs were available twice (he site-mailed me after I posted, telling me the '06 Cubs were already taken). Anyway, we all know how good/deep their pitching is. Plus, Kling (C), Steinfeldt (3B) & Chance (1B) are startable.

During the wait for my next pick, barracuda3 (NL Central's '06 Cubs) had already selected the '06 Browns and '05 Reds as his other two teams and I was very jealous that he was able to get those monster hitters. Then my turn finally came, and I was also able to get the '06 Browns (Stone, Pelty) and also the '08 Pirates (Wagner, Clarke, R.Thomas), so now I have two monster hitters to go along with a few above-average guys.

Prediction: 91-71
Picking first in a division does have it's advantages in certain divisions/leagues. Getting depth on the first pick allows my next two picks to bypass stud-less teams with depth, and instead grab teams with a few studs and no depth. I like this team a lot as it has good pitching, good defense and enough hitting to win 90+ games.

Current Overall Rank: 87th
Current Record: 83-78
Expected Winning% Rank: 1st
League Hitting Rank: 19th
League Pitching Rank: 1st

Yep, in case you missed it, I added a category above. This team is +136 in run differential and are barely over .500, thanks to a 18-29 record in 1-run games. The team's .590 Exp win% is equivalent to a 95-96 win team (and ranked 12th in the tournament), so I'm conceding that my 91-71 projection was off... it was too low. This team should've been in the running for a Top 14 pick, but losing a bunch of 3-2 and 2-1 games really hurt. '05 George Stone (.313, .375, .410, 104 RBIs) was decent in the pitching-oriented N.L, but it's good enough to rank 2nd in MVP (he isn't even in the the top 25 in AVG, OBP, SLG, Runs or RBIs). Honus Wagner (.311, .362, .432, 123 runs) was my only other decent hitter. It's why the team ranked 19th in runs scored.

Jack Powell (25-11, 3.17) was the best pitcher and is 4th in Cy Young in a very strong field. Barney Pelty (17-22, 2.71) and Vic Willis (16-8, 2.79) both ranked in the top 10 in ERA (3d & 6th). Ed Reulbach would have ranked first in ERA (2.40) but he didn't quite get enough innings as he pitched 87 games (154 innings) in relief. He was 25/29 in saves.

Based on the normalized real-life stats (weighted for playing time), this team was the 4th biggest underachieving offense. (The stats indicate they should've been the 10th best offense, and were 19th). Combine that and the bad luck in 1-run games, and 100 wins is within the range of reasonable outcomes.

Posted by schwarze on 3/28/2023 10:25:00 AM (view original):
League 6, Pick 4
NL Central, Pick 1
1964 White Sox, 1964 Yankees, 1964 Braves

The '69 Orioles were the top pick in this league (by pedrocerrano, #5 overall in the Top 20 draft). Then barracuda3 took the first '64 White Sox and put them in the NL East (better years for offense, 1962-64). toysoys picked the '66 Giants third. My choices were the '64 White Sox, the '66 Giants and the '70 Orioles. Even though I got killed in 1-run games with the '63-64 White Sox/Orioles in round 2, I grabbed the '64 White Sox. This pick is similar to the '06 Cubs pick --> load up on solid pitching depth and hope there is enough offense with your double-pick at 8-9. Ironically, the next two teams off the board were the '70 Orioles and the '66 Giants.

I was really shocked the '64 Yankees made it back to me in round 2. This pick enabled me to bolster the pitching staff (Ford, Bouton, Stottlemyre, Reniff) while providing some offensive pop (Mantle, Maris, Howard). Since I really didn't need much at pitching now, I looked for as much offense as I could... viola... the 1964 Braves has 3 really strong hitters (Torre, Aaron, Carty) plus some useful other pieces (Menke, Mathews, Tiefenaur).

Prediction: 90-72
The 1960's is a wasteland for hitting and there's a ton of great pitching. Although I don't have a bunch of stud pitchers like Koufax or Gibson, I have solid pitching depth where my #3 and #4 starters will be better than most, and the bullpen is as deep as any team in the league. But I feel that my offense will be better than average for the era. With strong defense, I could see this team ranking in the top 5 in pitching and top 10 in hitting. That should get the team to 90 wins.

Current Overall Rank: 119th
Current Record: 80-81
League Hitting Rank: 17th
League Pitching Rank: 2nd

It seems this team is a mirror image of the 1906 Cubs team. Great pitching (2nd), an grossly underachieving offense (4th most underachieving) and unlucky in 1-run games (19-26). Elston Howard and Mickey Mantle were in the top 13 players who underachieved their real life stats the most. Don't even get me started on '64 Horlen. It's frustrating watching the other '64 Horlen go 32-6, 3.14 while my '64 Horlen goes 11-16, 4.20. barracuda3's '64 White Sox team included the same '64 Braves but he chose the '64 Giants, while I chose the '64 Yankees - a difference between 80 and 89 wins. Of course, it would've been even embarrassing had I chosen the '64 Giants and still lost 10 more games than barracuda3.... at least I can blame it on the Yankees.

After two straight disappointing rounds using the '64 White Sox, I am done with them for a while (well, unless I take them in round 4).

Posted by schwarze on 3/27/2023 5:33:00 PM (view original):
League 8, Pick 4
NL Central, Pick 1
1990 A's, 1990 Reds, 1990 Expos

The top 3 picks in this league were the '86 Astros (spinaldog), '96 Braves (pedrocerrano) and '97 Braves (barracuda3). The obvious pick here is the '98 Braves. But there are a couple of reasons why I didn't select them. (1) That would put me in with barracuda3's in the AL West (2) I just drafted the '98 Braves in league 9 and didn't want the same team. I strongly considered taking '93 or '94 Braves and go into the AL East. Also, the '94 and '95 Braves were available in the AL Central (along with pedro's '96 Braves). I went to sleep agonizing over which Braves team to select. I finally decided that since I have two teams in this league (picks #4, #10) and one has to be in the NL and one in the AL, I might as well take the NL team now, and grab whichever Maddux team is left with pick #10, so I grabbed the '90 A's. They have 4 really strong hitters in McGwire, Henderson, Canseco & McGee. Dave Stewart is a serviceable SP and of course, they have a strong bullpen.

What I didn't account for when I grabbed this team is that I didn't address catcher or any of the tough-to-fill infield positions (2B, 3B, SS). And I don't have a stud pitcher. That's a lot to ask for from the 8th and 9th picks from the 1990-92 seasons. And sure enough, when it got back to me, the pickings were slim. I wanted to grab '90 Clemens to get a stud SP, but the rest of the team didn't offer enough, and I had too many holes. I went with the '90 Reds to get Larkin, Doran, H.Morris and the sad catcher platoon of Oliver/J.Reed. Ugh. At least the pitching gives me Rijo, Dibble & Myers. I still need 2-3 more SPs... crap. And a 2B. The best option is the '90 Expos with DeShields, D.Martinez, Z.Smith & Boyd. That sound you heard was me throwing up a little in my mouth

Prediction: 70-92
This team was pick #4. Some of my early draft picks are going to single-handedly lower the regression correlation between pick# and win total. What a disaster this team will be. I may have to change '90 Eckersley's setting from "Closer" to "Setup A" in the second half of the season just to use up his innings. I doubt I will have a lot of save opportunities with this sorry bunch. I could have had my choice of Maddux teams and still grabbed the '90 A's.at pick #10 (toysboys grabbed the second '90 A's team at pick #11).

Current Overall Rank: 114th
Current Record: 81-80
League Hitting Rank: 19th
League Pitching Rank: 10th

I absolutely should have taken the '98 Braves who may end up with the #1 seed in the AL (91-70). Who cares if I had the same team - it was in a different league and I would've had different players with the other two team selections. Dumb move by me.

Anyway, This team did beat my low expectations, but it just wasn't a fun team to play. Jose Canseco was complete dogsh*t (.218, .322, .409) and ranked as the 9th most underachieving hitter in this league. I ended up benching him. Henderson was fine (.290, .397, .452) and '90 McGee always does well for me (.308 avg, 16 + plays in CF), but McGwire led the team in RBIs (only 96) despite hitting .207. Ironically, the bullpen was the best feature of this team as they went 44/50 in save opportunites, mostly thanks to '90 Eckersley (31/34, 1.48 ERA) who only pitched 61 innings (64 games). Dave Stewart was my best SP at 17-12, 4.10. Pretty much a blah season from a blah team.

Posted by schwarze on 3/27/2023 5:50:00 PM (view original):
League 9, Pick 4
NL East, Pick 1
1998 Braves, 1999 Diamondbacks, 2000 Dodgers

I had fourth pick. The first pick was made in the Top 20, as kstober grabbed the 2002 Red Sox. With the fourth pick, I was hopeful that either the other 2002 Red Sox team or the 2005 Astros would fall to me. Nope... njbigwig and Chisock crushed my hopes. I had the '98 Braves ranked first in this division, and due to solid pitching depth, that's who I went with. Five pitchers (Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, two RP) plus Lopez, Galarraga & Chipper give this roster a great start.

Needing 2B, SS and another quality SP, I didn't have to look far. The '99 Diamondbacks have 2B Jay Bell, SS Tony Batista and stud SP Randy Johnson. Luis Gonzalez and Steve Finley add some OF depth. After deciding to move '98 Smoltz' 168 innings into the long relief role, I decided I wanted another stud SP, so I went with 2000 Kevin Brown's Dodgers. That got me Shawn Green, Todd Hundley (to platoon with Lopez) and DH Gary Sheffield's 1.081 OPS.

Prediction: 84-78
With three really good SPs, this team feels like it should be better than 84 wins, but the defense is way worse than I am used to having and that will certainly hurt the pitching. The bullpen isn't very strong either (zero RPs with a whip under 1.00, most over 1.10). I do have two really good pinch hitters though, with Erubiel Durazo (1.106 ops) and Dave Delucci (.394 avg) so there's that.

Current Overall Rank: 31st
Current Record: 91-70
League Hitting Rank: 16th
League Pitching Rank: 1st

Both 2002 Red Sox teams won 90+ games, but the 2005 Astros team was a .500 team, so I can't complain too much about my selection of the '98 Braves. Compare this team's offense/pitching ranks (16th/1st) with my '64 White Sox (17th/2nd), then compare W-L records. It's amazing how impactful just going .500 (23-23) in 1-run games does for your record.

I downgraded this team's record because I was worried about the fielding, but the team did finish 4th in fielding% and was only slightly below average in range so I may have overcorrected. Offensively, the team finished 2nd in HRs (268) despite playing it's home games in a negative HR park (Turner Field). Gary Sheffield was the team's best hitter (.330, .415, .547), but the pitching is what carried this team. '98 Maddux (20-13, 3.10 ERA) finishes 2nd in ERA (behind '00 Pedro) and will win the Cy Young. '00 Kevin Brown was excellent as well (16-8, 3.75), finishing 6th in ERA. Tom Glavine and Randy Johnson didn't have sparkling ERAs but combined to go 36-20. The bullpen had one good pitcher - the closer, Kerry Ligtenberg was exceptional, 40/45 in saves, 2.90 ERA, 1.01 whip. The rest of the bullpen was 19-29 W-L record and 8/19 in saves.

Posted by schwarze on 3/28/2023 5:35:00 PM (view original):
League 3, Pick 5
AL East, Pick 2
1934 Yankees, 1932 Reds, 1934 Cardinals

League 3 had the most teams selected in the top 20 draft, with four. The four include '27 Yankees (#1 overall by barracuda3), 1931 Athletics (#9 overall by calhoop), 1937 Yankees (#11 overall, by barracuda3) and 1933 Giants (#17 overall, by nocomm999). I had fifth pick, which means this was one of the first teams I selected after the division alignment was released. The teams I considered here besides the '34 Yankees were the '35 Pirates and '31 Yankees. My second pick in this league isn't until #16, so it's unlikely I can get two of these three choices, so I needed to choose wisely. The Pirates didn't have 8 players I liked although their top 3 (Blanton, Swift, Vaughan) are very strong. It came down to '34 or '31 Yankees and I thought the '34 pitching staff had a bigger gap over the '31 team as compared to '31's better offense. I honestly can't remember why I chose to play in the AL East (1932-34) over the AL Central (1934-36) but based on the other two teams I drafted, I'm glad I did. They give me Gehrig, Lazzeri, Crosetti, Dickey, Ruth, Chapman, Gomez, Murphy & J.Allen. Hard to complain with this group.

I was hoping the '34 Giants (Hubbell) would be around with my next pick, but they went to footballmm11 with the double on picks 4-5. When it finally got back to me, I initially was going to grab the offense with the '33 A's which included a stud Foxx, plus Cochrane and Simmons. But as I researched some more, I realized that the '34 Cardinals have a strong offense as well, and I would be happy with either team, so I went with the best pitching left. The 1932 Reds gave me a top 5 SP with Red Lucas, and a strong 100+ inning reliever in Eppa Rixey. There are only ten pitchers in the 1932-34 era with an ERC+ at 150+ and I have three of them (Gomez, Lucas, Rixey). The Reds also give me Babe Herman and Ernie Lombardi to platoon with Dickey.

I thought for sure that nocomm999 would take the A's team I was looking at but he didn't. As I was building out the rest of my roster with the '33 A's team, I realized that if I downgraded '33 Foxx to '34 Ripper Collins, I could add more pieces elsewhere, so I audibled off my original choice and instead grabbed the '34 Cardinals. That got me R.Collins, Frisch, Delancey (upgrade over Dickey), Dizzy and Daffy Dean.

Prediction: 88-74
Like most of my teams, I like the pitching better than the hitting. Sure, my roster has some really good hitters, but in this league, every team has really good hitters, so even though the offense looks good on paper, it's probably league average at best. My pitching should be top 5 in the league though. In fact, in the years 1932-38 (the AL), I have 3 of the top 18 starting pitchers (min 200+ innings) and that represents 910 of my team's innings. The mediocre defense is the one thing preventing this team from reaching 90+ wins.

Current Overall Rank: 30th
Current Record: 92-69
League Hitting Rank: 20th
League Pitching Rank: 5th

The two teams I considered are doing well ('31 Yankees are 94-67, the '35 Pirates are 84-77 but tied for first in the AL Central with the other '34 Yankees team). My '34 Yankees are actually overachieving based on their stats. From my offensive performance analysis a few days ago, this team is the least underachieving team (meaning their sim stats are closer to their real life stats than any other team in this league). Also, they are lucky in 1-run games (24-18), so my 88-win projection is probably closer to reality or even a bit high.

I was right about my pitching being a top 5 unit. Although I don't have any Cy Young candidates, I have good balance. My top 3 SPs are all about the same (Lefty Gomez 19-13, 4.81; Red Lucas 21-13, 5.08; Dizzy Dean 20-13, 5.12). Eppa Rixey has been servicable as the closer (7-1, 43/49 saves, 4.48 ERA). The team started doing better once I put Johnny Murphy (10.10 ERA in 41 innings) on "Rest" mode.

I was also right about my offense being just so so, relative to the rest of the league. My best hitter (Gehrig .303, .376, .623, 55 HRs, 167 RBIs) is only ranked 12th in RBIs and 24th in OPS in the league.

Posted by schwarze on 3/28/2023 3:25:00 PM (view original):
League 7, Pick 5
NL Central, Pick 1
1976 Reds, 1977 Dodgers, 1977 Mets

This was a weird decision for me. I already had a team in league 7 with the '81 Astros (overall pick #6). The '75 Reds (overall pick #18 by glowguy) was also a Top 20 pick. Then when the regular draft started, BeAllEndAll wisely selected the '85 Cardinals, who I strongly considered in the Top 20 draft (but they didn't have enough useful players). I was all set to draft the '75 Dodgers pitching staff when barracuda3 grabbed them at pick 4. Crap. I really like a bunch of teams in the AL West (1984-86) but would rather pick 3rd or 4th in that division (not 2nd). Maybe I can get into that division with my third pick in this league. Since there is a decent amount of pitching in the 1970's, I went with the best offense available, the '76 Reds. Bench, Morgan, Rose, Concepcion, Geronimo, Foster, Griffey plus a couple of RPs. Now I wait and see which pitching-heavy teams are left.

The perfect two teams were left for me, the '77 Dodgers (Hooton, Sutton) and the '77 Mets (Seaver, Koosman) and we now have a starting pitching staff. Ironically, I don't have much of a bullpen (Sosa, Lockwood, Eastwick & Sarmiento) so I added a couple more starters who will pitch in long relief (T..John, Espinosa). But I was able to strengthen the offense. '77 Yeager & '77 Stearns replaces a light-hitting Bench at catcher. '77 Reggie Smith is one of my favorite sim cookies. '77 Dusty Baker starts at DH. '77 Lopes allows me to use '76 Morgan as a leadoff hitter vs RHP and rest him vs LHP.

Prediction: 81-81
Honestly, I have no idea how good this team is. They could win 71 or 91 so I split the difference. The 1970's decade mostly sucks for offense so I'm not sure if my offense is good, relative to other teams. Although my SPs are decent, my bullpen isn't very deep and not very good. I should have instead taken one of the 1985 teams I was drooling over. I could see this team having a positive run differential and a negative win differential due to poor 1-run game results.

Current Overall Rank: 44th
Current Record: 89-72
League Hitting Rank: 1st
League Pitching Rank: 22nd

By now, you've probably figured out that I tend to lean toward pitching over hitting, probably to a fault. I went the opposite with this '76 Reds pick. Despite playing their home games in Riverfront Stadium (0.90 park factor), this team somehow led the league in offense (by almost 100 runs over 2nd place). I can't really explain it. Somehow, the team was 20 OPS points better at home than on the road. The team was the least underachieving offense in the league. George Foster (.310, .361, .510, 129 runs, 126 RBIs) was 4th in MVP. Steve Garvey was tied for first in RBIs (143) and Pete Rose (.314, 57 doubles) was third (142). Ken Griffey Sr was 2nd in average (.359) while Joe Morgan was third in OPS (.966) behind both versions of '80 Brett.

The pitching was less than mediocre. Nobody cracked the top 25 in ERA. Four SPs started 37+ games yet nobody won 20 games despite the great offense. The bullpen mostly sucked, except closer Elias Sosa was 30/35 in saves with a team best 3.43 ERA. Although this team made the playoffs, without a dominant SP or good bullpen, they should be an easy out in the first round.

And despite going with

Posted by schwarze on 3/29/2023 9:24:00 AM (view original):
League 4, Pick 6
NL West, Pick 1
1944 Cardinals, 1944 Red Sox, 1944 Indians

Since my other League 4 team (48 Indians) was in the AL, I needed an NL team, so I was thrilled when toysboys switched divisions (to the AL East) with his '44 Cardinals pick. I quickly selected the other '44 Cardinals team... my #1 ranked option in the NL West. The 1940's Cardinals were a juggernaut... I probably would have taken the '42 or '43 Cardinals if toysboys stayed in the NL. That would've been fine too, since I maybe could've added the '42 Yankees coming back. Anyway, the '44 Cardinals are loaded, with 4 starting batters (Musial, Hopp, W.Cooper, Sanders) and 1049 usable innings (Cooper, Wilks, Munger, Lanier, Brecheen).

Having nearly half my starting lineup and 2/3 of my pitching staff locked up, I could cherry-pick two teams with the most impactful players. The '44 Indians give me two great infielders with Keltner (3B) & Boudreau (SS) plus a quality SP, Steve Gromek. The '44 Red Sox fill in the remaining holes in the lineup with 2B Bobby Doerr and OF Bob Johnson. Oh, and Tex Hughson is a top 3 SP from 1942-44.

Prediction: 92-70
I am probably a little overconfident with this team, but my starting lineup has eight players with an OPS+ of 120 or great (my worst hitter is at 118). I have three of the top nine and five of the top nineteen starting pitchers from this era. The defense is strong. The only weakness is RP depth, but there just aren't a lot of stud relievers in this era anyway. I'll use Munger plus one of my starters as my two main relievers.

Current Overall Rank: 72nd
Current Record: 85-76
League Hitting Rank: 7th
League Pitching Rank: 9th

This team's offense has actually overachieved based on the stats (i.e., least underachieving team in the league), and since they've had average 1-run game luck, it seems as I may have overestimated this team in my projection. The main culprit is that the '44 Cardinals pitching staff has mostly been terrible. Mort Cooper (12-17, 5.94) and Max Lanier (9-14, 5.26) have both sucked. Harry Brecheen (5.21) and Red Munger (9-10, 19/25 saves) have been underwhelming. My two best pitchers have been non-Cardinals Steve Gromek (13-9, 4.53) and Tex Hughson (17-12, 4.80). Had I known this, I would've picked a different team.

That being said, the offense has been solid, as we led the league in doubles (447!) with six players ranked in the top 20. Not a lot of HR pop (21st) and not a lot of walks drawn (20th) and as a result, only one player barely cracks the top 25 in OPS (21st, Bob Johnson.315, .417, .516). The other '44 Cardinals team won 97 games, but they added '46 Newhouser, who was unavailable to my team.

Posted by schwarze on 3/29/2023 10:20:00 AM (view original):
League 5, Pick 7
NL West, Pick 2
1956 Yankees, 1956 White Sox, 1955 Braves

This is my second team in this league and I am forced to take a team in the NL (1950-54). Each division had one team selected including both '54 Indians teams (both top 20 picks). I was avoiding barracuda in the NL Central. I strongly considered joining the NL East with redcped's '51 Dodgers, but there wasn't a single team that jumped out and my rankings had more *good* team options in the NL East, so I went with the '56 Yanks. Besides a stud Mantle season, I get to fill two tougher positions with Berra (C) and McDougald (SS). The team also provided one good SP (Ford) and two medicore SPs (Sturdivant, Larsen).

When it got back to me, I really struggled to decide on my next team. I really needed pitching depth and the '56 White Sox had it (three SPs between 135-140 ERC+ and six other pitchers between 118-125 ERC+). But no real studs on the team. After posting, I almost switched to 1955 White Sox who had fewer usable pitchers, but they were better quality (Pierce, Donovan, Consuegra) , plus '55 had a good Nellie Fox. But '56 had better OFs (Minoso, Nieman, Doby) plus a usable catcher (Lollar). In retrospect, I made the wrong choice.

With my third pick, I mostly needed to fill two starting positions (2B, 3B) and also needed to help fill some ABs at 1B, SS and I'd take whatever pitching help was available. The '55 Braves had a stud Eddie Mathews and Hank Aaron's good season at 2B. Johnny Logan and Joe Adocck fills the needed SS & 1B ABs. Ray Crone adds 148 innings of 1.13 whip (which is decent for this era).

Prediction: 78-84
Without any stud pitchers and an average defense, this team is most likely a bubble team in terms of advancing to round 4. We will lose all games vs the league's best pitchers and maybe have a shot at winning against teams that have a weak #3 and/or #4 starting pitcher. I think we'll score some runs with Berra, Minoso, Mathews, Mantle, Aaron, Nieman. And Mantle should have a shot at the MVP, but even with a top 10 offense, I am not expecting a playoff run or even a .500 season.

Final Overall Rank: 226th
Final Record: 67-95
League Hitting Rank: 21st
League Pitching Rank: 13th

I dreaded having to write this team's post-season analysis. With 11 games to play, this team was 21 games under .500 while still outscoring it's opponents on the season. I challenge anybody to show me a team with a .500+ Exp. Win% that had a worse record. On top of that, they were the most underachieving offensive team in the league, by a wide margin. Bob Nieman (1st), Hank Aaron (6th), Eddie Mathews (17th), Gil McDougald (27th) and Yogi Berra (50th) represents 56% of the starting lineup and were all among the top 50 biggest offensive underachievers.

The pitchers underperformed as well. pedrocerrano also had the '56 Yankees & '56 White Sox and his team won 99 games. HIs Jack Harshman went 20-14, 5.25. My Jack Harshman went 8-16, 7.00. His Dick Donovan went 21-13, 4.70. My Dick Donovan went 14-15, 5.58. We both played in a pitchers park and my defense was better (especially range), so of course the differences make no sense.

Add in the 17-29 record in 1-run games, and pretty much everything that could go wrong did go wrong. This team should have played as a .500 team, but ended up being tied for my worst team. Glad this season is over.

Posted by schwarze on 3/29/2023 11:02:00 AM (view original):
League 1, Pick 8
NL East, Pick 3
1902 Blues, 1903 Pirates, 1904 Cubs

In the very early eras, I don't think it's nearly as important of getting to pick first in a division as the later eras. The reason is because you can pretty much complete your roster with 14-16 players, with the third team adding a couple of key pieces. The league 1 draft was going quickly, and when pick #8 came up, it was SteveIzzy's turn to draft. Trading was still open. I had three teams in league 10 and only two in league 1. And since I was scheduled to draft #8 in league 10, and preferred league 1, I made an offer to SteveIzzy to swap my league 10, pick 8 for his league 1, pick 8... and he agreed.

After the trade was accepted, I quickly jumped on the 1902 Cleveland Blues. With so little hitting in the NL (1902-1908), I wanted a team in the NL East and really wanted to make sure I had a shot at one of the Pirates teams with my second pick. Since this was pick #3 in the division, that was now guaranteed. The '02 Blues gives me Nap Lajoie, Bill Bradley, Charlie Hickman, Charlie Hemphill, Ossee Schreckengost, Elmer Flick as well as the favorite cookie SP, Bill Bernhard. Addie Joss isn't terrible either.

Glowguy picked fourth and went with the '02 Pirates team (which I had ranked 1st in the division, due to pitching depth and three great OFs). That actually turned out ok, because the '03 Pirates fit better. I needed Wagner's stud shortstop season. Fred Clarke and Clarence Howeth "Ginger" Beaumont are really good hitting OFs. And Claude Ritchey and Ed Phelps supply the extra ABs I need at 2B and C. Oh, I can also use the 665 IPs that Sam Leever and Deacon Phillippe provide.

With the entire roster pretty much in place, now it's time to look for a team with a couple of key studs I can use. I went with the '04 Cubs, since Mordecai Brown was the best SP left (and a top three SP in the 1902-04 era) while Jake Weimer was the top "second-best" SP left (and is a top 15 SP). Frank Chance allows Hickman to play in the OF.

Prediction: 92-70
When playing in these eras with extremes, I like to have strength where most teams have weaknesses. (For example, in the late 1920-30's era, I loaded up on pitching). The 1902-04 division has some really good hitting options, whereas the 1904-06 and 1906-08 divisions do not (at least not hitting-depth). I don't think my starting pitching is that much worse than the other two divisions, so I really think this team (as well as the other teams in my division) will dominate the N.L. I could see three teams in this league winning 90+ games. In fact, the more I look at this team, the more I like it (I just bumped up the win total 3 games while writing this). The only negative is the batting lineup is a bit right-handed heavy (just lowered wins by 1).

Final Overall Rank: 31st
Final Record: 92-70
League Hitting Rank: 11th
League Pitching Rank: 6th

I finally nailed this projection exactly. And it wasn't lucked based. The team actually finished 23-25 in 1-run games and the winning% (.568) and expected winning% (.564) were nearly identical (which is rare for most of my teams). With the pitching depth, I ended up using Mordecai Brown (11-8, 11/12 saves, 3.38) as a long setup reliever and Bill Bernhard (19-16, 24/32 saves, 3.02 in 89 games) as my long-closer. Jack Weimer (20-13, 2.91) was my top SP, although Addie Joss (16-12, 2.82) was solid as well. Both were among the top 10 in ERA. Bernhard was ranked 3rd in Cy Young.

None of the team's hitters were ranked in the top 25 in AVG, OBP, SLG or OPS, although Honus Wagner's 122 RBIs (.307, .357, .413) was ranked 6th overall. The team was last in walks but 5th in batting average. A very balanced group as 7 of my 9 regulars hit at least .277 while the other two were in the .260's. Not bad, considering all the deadball pitchers in the 1902-1908 years (N.L.)

Of course, this team faces my 1906 Cubs team in the first round of the playoffs. Note sure which team I am rooting for.

Posted by schwarze on 3/29/2023 11:36:00 AM (view original):
League 2, Pick 8
AL Central, Pick 2
1924 Senators, 1924 Reds, 1924 Giants

League 2 was one of the three leagues that I have three teams in. This was my second team. My first team was in the NL (1916 Red Sox). I knew I wanted two of the three teams in the NL just because the NL is going to crush the AL in the inter-division games, so should I grab the better league now and just kind of tank with my third team (pick #16)? Or should I build the best team I can in the tough hitting-dominated 1920-26 era? I decided on the latter. With one pick to go before my turn came up, my three choices were '24 Robins, 24 Senators & 20 Indians. Well, barracuda3 grabbed the AL Central '24 Robins. I though the overall strength of teams in the AL East & AL West was a lot weaker than the AL Central, so I decided to join barracuda3 and take the '24 Senators. The Senators have 5 usable pitchers for this era, including 3 starters. They even have a solid hitting Goose Goslin to use in the OF. I'm sure I can find enough hitting with my next two picks.

I was hoping one the Reds teams would make it back to me, and 1924 Reds did make it back (footballmm11 took '23 Reds right before me). This pick pretty much filled out the rest of my pitching staff, with Eppa Rixey, Carl Mays, Rube Benton and Pedro Dibut. Offensively, the '24 Reds fill the holes at catcher (Bubles Hargrave), 3B (Babe Pinelli) and OF (Rube Bressler, Edd Roush). The last pick was going to be an offense-only team. As much as I would have liked to grab a Hornsby team, the '24 Giants had exactly what I needed, with George Kelly (1B), Frankie Frisch (2B), Travis Jackson (SS), Ross Youngs (DH), Hank Gowdy/Frank Snyer (C) and RP Claude Jonnard.

Prediction: 86-76
I will be shocked if this team isn't ranked 1st or 2nd in pitching among A.L. teams (1920-26). I will also be shocked if this team isn't ranked near the bottom of the league offensively. This is the 1920's and we don't have any Ruths or Hornsbys on the roster. But we have great pitching, great defense and our home ballpark is Griffith Stadium (-2 for HRs). Good pitching is supposed to beat good offenses, right?

Final Overall Rank: 40th
Final Record: 91-69
League Hitting Rank: 10th
League Pitching Rank: 13th

This was by far my luckiest team. At one point, they had the best record in 1-run games in the entire tournament. They regressed a bit, but still finished the season 25-12 which ranked as the 4th best record in 1-run games. The overall pitching ranking is shown as 13th, but in a league where dead-ball teams are in the NL and the live-ball era teams are in the AL, this 13th ranked pitching staff is also ranked 1st in the AL. And similarly, the 10th ranked offense is really 4th-to-last ranked in just the AL.

The '20 Indians probably should have been my choice as ejstockman's team won 95 games in the AL East. And that '23 Reds selection right in front of me helped footballmm11 win 101 games.

I was right about the NL vs AL, as the NL was +33 wins. What I got wrong was the idea that the '24 Washington pitchers would be good. Walter Johnson went 11-21, 5.10. Carl Mays 6-14, 6.86, Tom Zachary 14-14, 5.76, George Modrigde 0-2, 5.97. And my home games are in a pitcher's park (Griffith Stadium, 0.94 factor). I mean, somehow I still won 91 games with this crappy Senators pitching staff. Thankfully, Eppa Rixey was 4th in Cy Young ranking (23-9, 4.51). Of course, no pitcher from the 1920's finished in the top 25 in ERA. The two Senators RPs (Jonnard 10-3, 4.66 & Dibut 33/36 saves, 2.58 ) were good.

With no Ruth or Hornsby, I was always going to have trouble scoring runs. Frankie Frisch (.348, .385, .449) was my team MVP as he led the team in OPS (.834) and RBIs (136) to go along with 23+ plays split between 2B, 3B. In fact, my team was awesome when it comes to range, as they had 160 + plays as a team (only 11 - plays, of which 9 were pitchers).

Anyway, I guess I'm happy this team out-performed my expectations, as well as out-performed their stats. Should be an easy out in the playoffs though.