35 pt swing. Same teams Topic

a_in_the_b
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. . so why exactly is being tied a big deal?
YOu are saying its LESS likely for a team that is TIED to be able to go apeshit and beat someone to a pulp than a team that is _getting blown to smithereens_ to do it?
4/19/2010 4:31 PM
colonels19
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Quote: Originally Posted By a_in_the_b on 4/19/2010No, COlonels. You go toe to toe with BAD ARGUMENTS BASED ON BAD STATISTICS and an inadequate knowledge of how probability works. Perhaps when 99.5% of people you run into disagree with you consistently it should give you a clue as to where the problem lies.

You talking about how I supposedly don't understand probability shows how much you don't know what my argument is. Trust me, I know and get how randomness works...I just have reason to believe, given some bizarre results here, that WIS' randomness/overly complex engine doesn't always work right all of the time.
4/19/2010 4:33 PM
colonels19
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Quote: Originally Posted By a_in_the_b on 4/19/2010
. . so why exactly is being tied a big deal?
YOu are saying its LESS likely for a team that is TIED to be able to go apeshit and beat someone to a pulp than a team that is _getting blown to smithereens_ to do it?
Are you effing serious right now....why is being tied a big deal? LMFAO...ok IDIOT...its a big deal because LSU or whoever was up 31 obviously started coasting when they were up that much and that's why MSU came back and won the game. If the game's tied, do you think either team is coasting, tool? I mean my god man, you can't be serious. This is one of the dumbest things I've ever read.
4/19/2010 4:35 PM
a_in_the_b
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Ok Colonels. Live in your little delusional world. Enjoy it.



4/19/2010 4:38 PM
colonels19
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Show me an instance of any college or pro game that was tied at halftime and one team ended up winning by 40....look at that, I'll even spot you a point. Shockingly enough, this is exactly what I asked you to do before. And since you think the sim should sim like real life, if you don't find an example that fits this description, why exactly should I, you, or anyone be ok with a result that simmed outside the realm of real life?
4/19/2010 4:39 PM
colonels19
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Quote: Originally Posted By a_in_the_b on 4/19/2010Ok Colonels. Live in your little delusional world. Enjoy it.



And that's all you've got for me....crickets....again, thanks for playing, its been incredibly underwhelming.
4/19/2010 4:40 PM
Iguana1
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that is a pretty big qualifer that the teams must have been tied at halftime. In essence probably eliminating over 95% of all games.

That's like asking to show me someone that flipped a coin 100 times and it came up heads 70 times. But they also must have flipped that same coin 100 times just prior to that test and the results were 50-50.

Is it practical that one team will play even with one team for a half, and then outscore them by 40 points in the second half? No. But's it's also not practical that one team outscores another by 10 points in the first half and then be outscored by 40 in the second half.
4/19/2010 5:33 PM
schroedess26
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Realistically though just because it did not happen in real life does not mean it couldn't happen. Its just that much more unlikely. A 16 has not beat a 1 but if we played another 300 hundred years I would bet that it would.

Michigan State 69, Alabama State 35 (South regional
first round, 2001) 29-25 halftime lead
Michigan St. went on a 26-0 tear and outscored the Hornets 40-10 after the intermission. Alabama State shot just 13 percent from the field (4-for-30) in the last 20 minutes.

November 3rd, 1978 Duke lost to instate rival Davidson 49-33. Amazingly, Davidson came back from a 31-4 halftime deficit. This is the fewest number of points ever scored in a half of NCAA men's basketball.

December 14, 2009
Bethune-Cookman vs Carver Bible 35-28 at half and 99-55 Final
Bethune outscored Carver 64-27 in the second half

December 30, 2001
LSU vs Nichols State
22-25 at half with Nichols State Winning
LSU then outscores Nichols state 49-10 in the second half and wins 71-35

December 30, 2000
New Mexico vs Texas-El Paso
43-42 Texas-El Paso Winning at half
121-86 Texas-El Paso Wins the game outscoring New Mexico 78-44 in the 2nd half

March 16, 2007
Florida vs Jackson State
Florida winning 41-35 at half
Florida wins 112-68 scoring 71-34 in the second half

There is quite a few games and thats just with a quick look at the last 10+ years.
4/19/2010 6:27 PM
a_in_the_b
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. . but since those are in real life, COlonels will say they don't count, or find reasons to discount them.
4/19/2010 7:10 PM
dalter
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Quote: Originally Posted By schroedess26 on 4/19/2010Realistically though just because it did not happen in real life does not mean it couldn't happen. Its just that much more unlikely. A 16 has not beat a 1 but if we played another 300 hundred years I would bet that it would.

More to the point, a 16 has never beaten a 1 in real life, but it's happened many times in HD.

Lesson: We can look to real life for a general guide, but there are so, so many things different in HD, trying to use it as an absolute is totally misguided and fruitless.
4/19/2010 7:22 PM
schroedess26
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Well dalt I have an easy way to not have a 1 lose to a 16 really ever in HD. Let humans rank the teams. I would bet that 90% of the time the #1 should have been a #3 or #4 and the #16 should have been like a 12,13, or 14.
4/19/2010 8:20 PM
colonels19
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Its much more understandable in HD when a low seed beats a high seed (16 beats a 1) because the talent disparity is significantly less than in real life. I think you can make the case in HD that all 64 teams have a legit shot to win the title...IRL...you have 20 maybe? Its just a different monster which I don't mind.
4/19/2010 8:23 PM
dalter
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Schro, colonels is right, it's because the talent disparity is bigger in real life between the 1's and 16's. (But no, all 64 teams definitely don't have a legitimate chance to win it all.)
4/19/2010 9:41 PM
a_in_the_b
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Yup. On that one issue at least, Colonels is indeed right.

4/19/2010 9:56 PM
smackawits
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Quote: Originally Posted By schroedess26 on 4/19/2010Realistically though just because it did not happen in real life does not mean it couldn't happen. Its just that much more unlikely. A 16 has not beat a 1 but if we played another 300 hundred years I would bet that it would.

Michigan State 69, Alabama State 35 (South regional
first round, 2001) 29-25 halftime lead
Michigan St. went on a 26-0 tear and outscored the Hornets 40-10 after the intermission. Alabama State shot just 13 percent from the field (4-for-30) in the last 20 minutes.

November 3rd, 1978 Duke lost to instate rival Davidson 49-33. Amazingly, Davidson came back from a 31-4 halftime deficit. This is the fewest number of points ever scored in a half of NCAA men's basketball.

December 14, 2009
Bethune-Cookman vs Carver Bible 35-28 at half and 99-55 Final
Bethune outscored Carver 64-27 in the second half

December 30, 2001
LSU vs Nichols State
22-25 at half with Nichols State Winning
LSU then outscores Nichols state 49-10 in the second half and wins 71-35

December 30, 2000
New Mexico vs Texas-El Paso
43-42 Texas-El Paso Winning at half
121-86 Texas-El Paso Wins the game outscoring New Mexico 78-44 in the 2nd half

March 16, 2007
Florida vs Jackson State
Florida winning 41-35 at half
Florida wins 112-68 scoring 71-34 in the second half

There is quite a few games and thats just with a quick look at the last 10+ years
I notice that colon-els hasn't responded to this one yet.....probably won't....it's not what he wants to hear
4/20/2010 11:48 AM
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