Distribution too rigid? Topic

isack24
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OR - I defer to dalter on what does happen. He clearly know more than me about it. I'm arguing theory.

And I actully agree with dalter's premise that two players at the same position, with the same distro, in the same offense, against the same defensive settings, but with different pers, should attempt different amounts of 3s.

My problem is that I have no idea how much that affects the shots, an that makes it tough for me to accept.

6/2/2010 1:54 PM
dalter
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Quote: Originally Posted By oldresorter on 6/02/2010



so isack, are you saying a 1 PER, 99 LP set to zero and 10% of the offense would take the same shots as a 99 PER, 1 LP set to zero and 10% of the offense, say in each case 3 3 pointers and 3 2 pointers on average, or something like that?

dalter, are you saying in the same example, the LP guy would take 5 2's & 1 3, while the PER guy might take 5 3's and 1 2, or something there abouts?

Yes.

furthermore, dalter, are you saying your way is how the engine now works, i.e. with equal settings, low per guys attempt fewer 3's than high per guys?

Yes.

interesting - dalter - do you think the engine has always worked this way, or is this something new?

I don't know if it's always worked that way, but it's not new with this engine, either.

reason I ask, I have not noticed it, but since mostly play d1, most of my guys have pretty equal LP / PER to each other, and when I would notice it, I generally gameplan it anyhow, i.e, my 45 per pg is set to -1 or -2, while my 85 per sg is set to +1 or +2, such that I never paid much attention to whether it was me or the engine????

6/2/2010 1:55 PM
kujayhawk
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I don't think you're missing anything but I don't believe we see eye-to-eye on this at all.

My team has no perimeter shooters. I have one good player and another ok player that are both power fowards. (The other 10 are not offensive threats at all.) The natural strategy for my opponents is to bottle up the inside by going heavy with a (-) defense.

Even if Orr is shooting nearly 50% from 2 point range, it does nothing to prevent teams from running a -4 or -5 against me.

The only way I'm going to stop opponents from doing that -- or at least penalize them for going down that road -- is to take some three point shots.

I've been insulting my own player an awful lot. But he's not that bad. 37 perimeter isn't good but at the D3 level there are plenty of Sim AI teams that run those guys out and they will hit a decent number of threes. And those Sim AI teams rarely have the speed and ball handling that my player does have.

I would like to think that if a team is running a -4 against me, the natural flow of the game is going to create three point opportunities for my team. I've accepted that it won't happen as much for guys with perimeter ratings in the 30's as it would for the 90's. But it should open up some possibilities.

My D3 team has some of the better speed and athleticism that you'll see. Without looking, I'm going to assume I'm a top 10 program because that's been the case for a long while. My guards have above average ball handling skills and my team passing rating is 44 which is very good for the D3 level.

In short, my team is fast, can handle the ball, and almost everybody can pass well. Take those facts and put them up against a -4 defense and I think there is no reason at the D3 level that players with perimeter ratings in the 30's cannot find some open looks from three point range. Should they hit 40% from those open looks? No -- but they should at least get some looks and while ratings in the 30's aren't good it's a whole lot better than ratings in the teens.

If the only way for me to counter the -4 and -5 defense is to force my players with perimeter ratings in the 30's to take an excessive amount of three point shots by going +1 or even +2, then that completely defeats the purpose of me trying to counter it.

Again, I'm not arguing that these shots should be wildly successful. But against a -4 or -5 defense and with the speed and passing that I have, I really think I should at least be able to get the shots off.
6/2/2010 1:58 PM
oldresorter
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Quote: Originally posted by dalter on 6/02/2010
Quote: Originally Posted By oldresorter on 6/02/2010so isack, are you saying a 1 PER, 99 LP set to zero and 10% of the offense would take the same shots as a 99 PER, 1 LP set to zero and 10% of the offense, say in each case 3 3 pointers and 3 2 pointers on average, or something like that?

dalter, are you saying in the same example, the LP guy would take 5 2's and 1 3, while the PER guy might take 5 3's and 1 2, or something there abouts?Yes.

furthermore, dalter, are you saying your way is how the engine now works, i.e. with equal settings, low per guys attempt fewer 3's than high per guys?Yes.

interesting - dalter - do you think the engine has always worked this way, or is this something new?I don't know if it's always worked that way, but it's not new with this engine, either.

reason I ask, I have not noticed it, but since mostly play d1, most of my guys have pretty equal LP / PER to each other, and when I would notice it, I generally gameplan it anyhow, i.e, my 45 per pg is set to -1 or -2, while my 85 per sg is set to +1 or +2, such that I never paid much attention to whether it was me or the engine????


Is this also position dependent, for example, would a 70per/70lp sf take maybe 3 - 3's and 3 - 2's when playing sf, but only 1 or 2 - 3's when playing pf, and 4 or 5 - 2's as a pf?

this would be easy enough to test by playing a PG at center in an exhibition game, it is not an area I pay a bunch of attention to, as I tend to simply tweek shooting levels to give me what I want anyhow?
6/2/2010 2:22 PM
antonsirius
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Quote: Originally posted by kujayhawk on 6/02/2010
The only way I'm going to stop opponents from doing that -- or at least penalize them for going down that road -- is to take some three point shots.

I disagree with that premise.

The way to punish a heavy sagging defense is to have your perimeter players score a lot of points. Whether those points come on threes, twos or from the foul line as they drive the lane over and over again isn't especially relevant.
6/2/2010 2:58 PM
udm_mike
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Quote: Originally posted by antonsirius on 6/02/2010
Quote: Originally posted by kujayhawk on 6/02/2010The only way I'm going to stop opponents from doing that -- or at least penalize them for going down that road -- is to take some three point shots.
I'm going to have to go ahead and disagree with you here, m'kay?

The way to punish a heavy sagging defense is to have your perimeter players score a lot of points. Whether those points come on threes, twos or from the foul line as they drive the lane over and over again isn't especially relevant.

FTFY
6/2/2010 3:22 PM
kujayhawk
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Quote: Originally posted by antonsirius on 6/02/2010
Quote: Originally posted by kujayhawk on 6/02/2010The only way I'm going to stop opponents from doing that -- or at least penalize them for going down that road -- is to take some three point shots.
I disagree with that premise.

The way to punish a heavy sagging defense is to have your perimeter players score a lot of points. Whether those points come on threes, twos or from the foul line as they drive the lane over and over again isn't especially relevant.

For simplicity sake, let's say you are correct on this. Even though I'm not sure it is with regards to the new sim and guards needing to have low post skills inside. (I don't know enough either way to be sure.)

But ignore the "punishment" point I made and focus on avoiding other opponents running the -3, -4, -5 against me.

I believe the primary factor that coaches use when making the decision to go +5, +1, 0, -3, etc. is the percentage of total shots that come from three point range.

Right now, 10% of my shots are threes. This, despite the fact that four of my five guards are set to 0 for three point selection as are all three of my small forwards.

This sort of gets back to the original question in the thread. Are things too rigid?

Yes, I can completely alter my distribution and crank all my guards up to +1 and +2 to force some outside shot selection. But shouldn't there be some *moderate* adjustments when you face a team that has 5 in the paint? It's rather annoying to go up against the -4 and only attempt two three pointers the entire game. Why would my next opponent do anything different?
6/2/2010 5:05 PM
alblack56
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I understand your point, jayhawk.

Isn't it ironic, though, how many coaches complained before "I set my distribution and the engine didn't follow it." And now you (and others) want the engine to change your distribution if it's not ideal.

I have no opinion on the topic; it just struck me as funny
6/2/2010 5:27 PM
kujayhawk
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Quote: Originally posted by alblack56 on 6/02/2010I understand your point, jayhawk.  Isn't it ironic, though, how many coaches complained before "I set my distribution and the engine didn't follow it." And now you (and others) want the engine to change your distribution if it's not ideal. I have no opinion on the topic; it just struck me as funny

Agree. Which is why throughout the thread I've been trying to emphasize that any tweak should be moderate.

If the choice was the old distribution or the new one, I choose new and don't think twice about it. At the same time I think it probably can be improved a bit so I created the thread.
6/2/2010 6:20 PM
antonsirius
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Quote: Originally posted by kujayhawk on 6/02/2010
I believe the primary factor that coaches use when making the decision to go +5, +1, 0, -3, etc. is the percentage of total shots that come from three point range.


Well, it certainly isn't for me.

If a team is getting the majority of its production from the front court, or there are specific match-up issues I'm concerned with, I consider sagging. If a team is getting the majority of its production from the back court, only then do I even look at how often they're jacking up threes, to consider whether to push out the defense and how much.

In a situation like the one you're describing with your team, if your guards aren't scoring I wouldn't pay any attention to them at all, no matter how many threes they were attempting.

You want to discourage a sagging defense. You do that by finding ways to get your guards to score points, not by jacking up lots of bad three attempts.
6/2/2010 6:36 PM
vandydave
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i think anton is in the minority.
6/2/2010 7:12 PM
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