Posted by shoe3 on 2/14/2020 6:54:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Basketts on 2/14/2020 5:54:00 PM (view original):

Posted by shoe3 on 2/14/2020 2:44:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dahsdebater on 2/14/2020 2:23:00 PM (view original):
Let's just all agree that shoe has been misutilizing the words "probability" and "probabilistic" in the forums for a long time...

I use probability and probabilistic in game context as contrasting antonyms to determinism and deterministic. Or in simpler terms, probability in game setting is use of a range of outcomes with varying likelihood of occurrence; contrasted with a deterministic model, which has set outcomes. Whereas determinism is 0 or 1, 0 being impossible and 1 being certain; probability is 0 to 1 with many possible outcomes.

I suspect you’re referring to the long thread from a year and a half ago where I ranted against the “feedback” feature, which is absolute **** in terms of gameplay for a game based on probabilistic outcomes (possessions). If you flip a fair coin 4 times, and it’s head all four times, the odds of flipping heads the fifth time is still 50%. The feedback feature bastardizes this concept, which is why I hate it, even when it benefits me more often than not (not, it should be noted, in the case of the OP here). That’s how I use “probability” and “probabilistic”.

It's not a bastardization of probability just because probability per possession is influenced by previous possessions. It's just a different type of game than flipping a coin, or playing roulette, where each flip or spin resets back to the previous odds.

In traditional blackjack, cards are not put back in the shoe. Each hand has different probabilities depending on the cards that were drawn before it, even though each hand is played the same way. Previous hands have direct influence on the probability of current hands.

Both award winners per play. Both are based on probability.

Blackjack isn’t HD though. What’s left in the deck doesn’t determine a winner. And the current deck isn’t reconfigured for the purpose of cooling a hot streak.

And anyway, I don’t care about how blackjack works. I care about how this game plays.

That's what the deck does by default. If a "hot streak" of face cards happen, the deck is naturally going to cool off. You don't need to reconfigure anything because the game is built around certain probabilities so that when a shoe is exhausted, the house's edge was around 0.5%. If the game has feedback, then it's programmed closer to this than your roulette example.

The problem with programming each possession as a weighted coin flip that resets each possession is the limited number of possessions in a game. You will have more upsets than you do now if the game was programmed this way. Law of large numbers.