A while ago, I recall somebody commenting that good offenses are more predictive of 1-run success than good pitching. I decided to test that theory. For each team in each league, I calculated the average runs per game and compared to the league average (for both offense and pitching). Using each measure vs 1-run win%, I was able to calculate the regression formula and correlation coefficient.

For offenses, the correlation is +0.14. The regression formula shows that a team that averages 1.0 runs per game better than the league average has an expected winning% in 1-run games is .518.

For pitching, the correlation is +0.20. The regression formula shows that a team that allows 1.0 runs per game better the league average has an expected winning% in 1-run games is .525.

Both measures have small positive correlations, although run suppression is a little stronger than run scoring.

Thats nice work schwarze and would agree it logically makes sense also. Another observation I have had that I am unclear how to quantify is the following:

Teams that have really deep BPs seem to do better in 1 run games. I "guess" that is because that they do better in extra innings which are more often than not 1 run games given the sudden death nature of them. I also have observed good defense plays into it, not only does it help w/ pitchers run suppression but offenses are usually generally pretty close but if a good defense saves runs while bad defense gives runs (which subtracts from runs a team scores), then you have that.

Well, in theory - that makes sense. But it sure isn't the case with my 67 Orioles White Sox team.

This team is ranked first in pitching (3.19 ERA, next best is 3.54), first in fielding% (.988), first in range (87+ plays, 17 - plays).

The team is currently 77-67 but that includes 56-40 in 2+ run games and 21-27 in 1-run games. The bullpen is the deepest of any team I have, includes six relievers with real-life whips 1.03 or better (Carlos, Wilhelm, McMahon, Locker, Watt, Woods).

FYI,

Thru 144 games, the cutoff for advancement to round 3 is 68-76 (with tie-breaker). The highest 67-77 team is ranked 244th.

The per 162 game record is 76.5 wins. 77 wins should get in, 75 wins is probably out, and 76 wins will depend on the tie-breaker.

Rank	Team Name	League	Owner	Pick#	Record	Exp Win%	Home
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	---------	-------------------	----------	------------	------------	---------
1	1887-1888 White Stockinged Colonels	1	barracuda3	11	97-49	0.627	0.703
2	2019-2020 Indian Angels	15	barracuda3	3	96-50	0.640	0.658
3	1901-1902 Athletic Orioles	2	barracuda3	2	94-52	0.655	0.616
4	1943-44 Cardinals-Athletics (Musial)	5	redcped	1	94-52	0.604	0.711
5	1885-86 White Stockings-Maroons (Gore)	1	pedrocerrano	3	93-53	0.635	0.753
6	2019-2020 Diamondbacks / White Sox	15	toysboys	8	93-53	0.592	0.712
7	1965-1966 Indians/Reds	7	kstober	10	93-53	0.584	0.681
8	1885-86 Wolverines/Quakers (Baldwin)	1	schwarze	1	92-54	0.669	0.708
9	1987-1988 Reds/Astros	10	kstober	1	92-54	0.625	0.653
10	1969-1970 Tiger Braves	8	barracuda3	13	92-54	0.619	0.645
11	A's/White Sox 1931-32	4	calhoop	3	92-54	0.593	0.562
12	2003-2004 Giant Diamondbacks	12	barracuda3	1	91-55	0.627	0.597
13	85-86 Cardinal Giants	10	ejstockman	3	91-55	0.621	0.569
14	1903-04 Blues-Tigers (Lajoie)	2	pedrocerrano	3	91-55	0.613	0.653
15	1987-1988 Dodger Pirates	10	barracuda3	5	90-56	0.633	0.614
16	1943-1944 Yankee Giants	5	barracuda3	4	90-56	0.620	0.703
17	1969-70 Giants-Senators (McCovey)	8	pedrocerrano	1	90-56	0.598	0.608
18	1933-34 Giants/Phillies (Hubbell)	4	schwarze	1	90-56	0.594	0.618
19	1949-50 Giants/Braves (Spahn)	6	schwarze	2	90-56	0.588	0.539
20	2015-16 Dodgers/A's (Kershaw)	14	schwarze	1	89-57	0.608	0.611
21	43/44 Indians-Senators	5	spinaldog	12	89-57	0.608	0.556
22	J2 L06 57-58 CIN/GNT	6	Chisock	22	89-57	0.548	0.556
23	1961-1962 Yankees / Senators	7	toysboys	11	88-58	0.598	0.568
24	2015-2016 Cubs/ Reds	14	glowguy	2	88-58	0.596	0.592
25	2007-2008 Brewers / Athletics	13	toysboys	10	88-58	0.591	0.553
26	2019-2020 Detroit Dodgers	15	emanes10	16	88-58	0.574	0.645
27	Kershaws' 2009-10 Dodgers/Brewers	13	BeAllEndAll	6	88-58	0.572	0.595
28	LG13: Bigwig's 09/10 Cards/Mariners	13	njbigwig	2	88-58	0.557	0.667
29	1889-90 Browns-Orioles	1	redcped	14	88-58	0.550	0.639
30	1919-1920 Giant Cardinals	3	barracuda3	4	88-58	0.549	0.566
31	79-80 KC/OAK	9	ybjsports	3	87-59	0.614	0.653
32	1927-28 Yankees/Phillies (Ruth)	4	schwarze	2	87-59	0.612	0.605
33	Speaker's 1913-14 Red Sox & Cardinals	3	ronthegenius	5	87-59	0.586	0.614
34	1991-92 Reds/Cubs	10	nocomm999	2	87-59	0.585	0.616
35	1923-24 Cubs/Indians	4	nocomm999	23	87-59	0.574	0.597
36	2019-20 Braves-Rockies (Marquez)	15	redcped	11	87-59	0.570	0.586
37	1977-78 Royals-Mets (Brett)	9	pedrocerrano	8	86-60	0.618	0.581
38	1917-18 Indians/Pirates (Coveleski)	3	schwarze	7	86-60	0.601	0.597
39	2001-02 NY Yankees/Milwaukee Brewers	12	oldtimer59	10	86-60	0.584	0.542
40	1943-1944 Detroit Tigers/Brooklyn Dodger	5	d_rock97	9	86-60	0.583	0.639
41	93-94 CLE/CHC	11	ybjsports	23	86-60	0.583	0.528
42	1977-78 Reds + Padres [Seaver]	9	footballmm11	5	86-60	0.582	0.635
43	71-72 Cardinals- Royals Busch	8	mllama54	11	86-60	0.571	0.557
44	2013-2014 Reds/Giants (Bumgarner)	14	DarthDurron	6	86-60	0.561	0.554
45	2017-2018 Nationals/Marlins	15	thejuice6	5	86-60	0.501	0.622
46	1971-72 Orioles/Phillies (McCarver)	8	schwarze	7	85-61	0.609	0.500
47	1915-16 White Sox/Cardinals (Sallee)	3	schwarze	11	85-61	0.601	0.541
48	2007-2008 Dodger Braves	13	barracuda3	1	85-61	0.601	0.513
49	1905-06 Naps/Browns (Howell)	2	schwarze	4	85-61	0.598	0.514
50	1935-36 Pirates-Reds (Vaughan)	5	pedrocerrano	3	85-61	0.588	0.611
51	Yaz's 1969-70 Red Sox & Angels	8	ronthegenius	4	85-61	0.583	0.676
52	Foxx's 1933-34 Pirates & Athletics	4	ronthegenius	7	85-61	0.576	0.548
53	1909-1910 Athletics/Browns	2	kstober	14	85-61	0.548	0.486
54	1951-52 White Sox/Braves	6	SteveIzzy	21	85-61	0.546	0.579
55	1963-1964 Dodgers with Red Sox	7	barracuda3	2	84-62	0.610	0.671
56	1981-82 Royals/Astros (Brett)	9	schwarze	1	84-62	0.592	0.611
57	1989-90 Royals/Cardinals	10	schwarze	20	84-62	0.578	0.658
58	1941-1942 Red Sox / Senators	5	toysboys	2	84-62	0.574	0.618
59	1961-62 Tigers + Red Sox [Kaline]	7	footballmm11	15	84-62	0.569	0.554
60	Dazzy Birds (23-24 Robins, Cards)	4	harrelson	8	84-62	0.563	0.554
61	35-36 CLE/WAS	5	ybjsports	11	84-62	0.559	0.622
62	1921-22 Cardinals + White Sox [Hornsby]	3	footballmm11	18	84-62	0.559	0.562
63	1885-86 Giants/Metropolitans (Connor)	1	schwarze	10	83-63	0.597	0.622
63	1887-88 Browns-Blues (O'Neill)	1	pedrocerrano	2	83-63	0.597	0.622
65	Yankees/Senators 1919-20	3	calhoop	8	83-63	0.570	0.541
66	1987-88 Giants + Padres [Will Clark]	10	footballmm11	23	83-63	0.566	0.614
67	Pirates/Senators 1909-10	2	calhoop	11	83-63	0.563	0.526
68	1911-1912 Giants / Braves	3	toysboys	16	83-63	0.547	0.526
69	1901-02 Americans/Reds (Young)	2	schwarze	8	83-63	0.532	0.527
70	1995-1996 Braves/Blue Jays (Maddux)	11	DarthDurron	1	82-64	0.583	0.542
71	2019-2020 New York Mets/San Diego Padres	15	d_rock97	2	82-64	0.581	0.562
72	2013-14 Tigers/Marlins (Cabrera)	14	schwarze	12	82-64	0.572	0.589
73	1995-1996 Mariner Mets	11	barracuda3	5	82-64	0.563	0.486
74	1919-20 White Sox/Athletics	3	SteveIzzy	24	82-64	0.546	0.589
75	1923-1924 Cincinnati White Sox	4	emanes10	4	82-64	0.538	0.629
76	1997-98 Giants/Expos	11	je3rd	8	82-64	0.530	0.541
77	1929-1930 Indians / Robins	4	toysboys	9	82-64	0.529	0.600
78	San Pedro Bay Pirates (LA-Pitt '03-04)	12	parking31	13	82-64	0.501	0.562
79	2021-2022 LA Dodgers/Washington National	15	d_rock97	4	81-65	0.612	0.639
80	1971-72 Mets + Braves [McGraw]	8	footballmm11	10	81-65	0.600	0.581
81	2019-20 Cubs-Reds (Gray)	15	pedrocerrano	6	81-65	0.561	0.595
82	1889-1890 Giants / Phillies	1	toysboys	15	81-65	0.560	0.569
83	J2 L12 01-02 BOS/MTL	12	Chisock	2	81-65	0.540	0.500
84	Trout's Angels and Mets 2013-2014	14	harrelson	22	81-65	0.538	0.569
85	Walsh's 1909-10 Highlanders/White Sox	2	BeAllEndAll	7	81-65	0.536	0.553
86	1969-1970 Yankees/Astros	8	kstober	18	81-65	0.534	0.527
87	2019-20 Astros/Royals (Springer)	15	schwarze	1	80-66	0.599	0.553
88	1981-1982 Angelic Reds	9	barracuda3	2	80-66	0.559	0.595
89	2021-2022 Padres/ Phillies	15	glowguy	13	80-66	0.554	0.583
90	1977-78 Rangers-Cardinals (Simmons)	9	redcped	6	80-66	0.549	0.458
91	2001-02 Diamondbacks/Royals	12	nocomm999	4	80-66	0.539	0.486
92	67/68 Cardinals Mets	7	Boddicker	1	80-66	0.535	0.557
93	2009-2010 Giants/Indians (Cain)	13	DarthDurron	20	80-66	0.534	0.548
94	2001-2002 Phillies / Cubs	12	toysboys	16	80-66	0.532	0.568
95	1937-1938 Yankees/Browns	5	kstober	5	80-66	0.525	0.500
96	1919-1920 Chicago Cubs/Detroit Tigers	3	d_rock97	13	80-66	0.515	0.554
97	2013-2014 Nationals/Cubs	14	kstober	23	79-67	0.578	0.581
98	NY Giants/Alleghenys 1887-88	1	glowguy	7	79-67	0.550	0.542
99	2005-06 Twins/Giants (Santana)	13	schwarze	3	79-67	0.543	0.493
100	1907-1908 Naps / Red Sox	2	toysboys	6	79-67	0.542	0.500
101	1941-1942 Yankees/ Phillies	5	glowguy	18	79-67	0.532	0.556
102	1985-86 Expos-Padres (Raines)	10	pedrocerrano	7	79-67	0.528	0.554
103	1953-54 Cardinals + Red Sox [Musial]	6	footballmm11	11	79-67	0.521	0.554
104	2017-2018 Indians/Reds	15	kstober	7	79-67	0.503	0.571
105	J2 L10 91-92 PIT/CLE	10	Chisock	13	79-67	0.497	0.595
106	'75-'76 Yanks/Astros	8	urband	15	79-67	0.497	0.553
107	1947-48 Indians-Cubs	6	redcped	8	78-68	0.571	0.542
108	Solano's 2019-20 Brewers/Giants	15	BeAllEndAll	12	78-68	0.556	0.554
109	1993-94 Giants/Angels	11	SteveIzzy	16	78-68	0.554	0.575
110	1965-1966 Giants/Red Sox (Marichal)	7	DarthDurron	6	78-68	0.548	0.554
111	.L12 1999-2000 braves/cubs	12	3dayrotation	5	78-68	0.538	0.479
112	2011-2012 Tigers/Rockies	14	kstober	11	78-68	0.535	0.529
113	1887-88 Dodgers/Bridegrooms/Beaneaters	1	richiebrown6	12	78-68	0.532	0.543
114	2003-04 Red Sox-Brewers (Sheets)	12	redcped	8	78-68	0.518	0.554
115	1999-00 Astros + Angels [Bagwell]	12	footballmm11	23	78-68	0.514	0.487
116	2005-2006 Indians/Diamondbacks	13	kstober	14	78-68	0.509	0.556
117	1963-1964 Reds/Pirates	7	thejuice6	20	78-68	0.508	0.543
118	67-68 Tigers / Astros	7	nordawg	19	78-68	0.503	0.500
119	2005-06 Astros-Cubs (Clemens)	13	pedrocerrano	4	77-69	0.578	0.479
120	J2 L11 93-94 ATL/SDP	11	Chisock	2	77-69	0.560	0.514
121	.L06 1957-58 Yankees/Senators	6	3dayrotation	16	77-69	0.552	0.487
122	1997-98 Angels/Cardinals (McGwire)	11	schwarze	14	77-69	0.544	0.527
123	J2 L14 11-12 ANH/TOR	14	Chisock	9	77-69	0.543	0.571
124	LG01: Bigwig's 85/86 Reds/Colonels	1	njbigwig	23	77-69	0.543	0.526
125	1967-68 Orioles/White Sox (Robinson)	7	schwarze	8	77-69	0.543	0.513
126	1997-1998 YANKEES/ TWINS	11	glowguy	13	77-69	0.540	0.566
127	47-48 BOS/WAS	6	ybjsports	9	77-69	0.538	0.586
128	2005-06 Tigers + Marlins [Cabrera]	13	footballmm11	9	77-69	0.535	0.541
129	2013-14 Dodgers + Twins [Kershaw]	14	footballmm11	17	77-69	0.532	0.500
130	1951-1952 Phillies / Athletics	6	toysboys	6	77-69	0.528	0.562
131	1965-66 PIRATES/ASTROS	7	glowguy	7	77-69	0.525	0.553
132	1915-16 Tigers / Reds	3	nordawg	15	77-69	0.519	0.526
133	1981-82 Braves/Yankees (Gossage)	9	schwarze	10	77-69	0.494	0.513
134	1991-92 Rangers/Orioles (Mussina)	10	schwarze	8	77-69	0.476	0.630
135	1997-1998 Braves / Athletics	11	toysboys	4	76-70	0.532	0.438
136	Schillings' 1997-98 Orioles/Phillies	11	BeAllEndAll	11	76-70	0.517	0.443
137	J2 L05 45-46 NYY/CHW	5	Chisock	7	76-70	0.516	0.575
138	2001-02 Giants-Reds	12	84champs	11	76-70	0.516	0.486
139	2003-04 Twins/Rockies (Helton)	12	schwarze	18	76-70	0.509	0.500
140	'31-'32 Yanks/Red Sox	4	urband	14	76-70	0.508	0.500
141	1931-32 Dodgers-Giants (Hubbell)	4	pedrocerrano	6	75-71	0.557	0.543
142	1969-1970 Dodgers / Cardinals	8	toysboys	3	75-71	0.550	0.514
143	Jays/White Sox 97/98	11	Bill_James47	7	75-71	0.550	0.438
144	Votto’s 09-10 Reds & Blue Jays	13	ronthegenius	24	75-71	0.545	0.507
145	1977-78 California Angels/Minn Twins	9	oldtimer59	24	75-71	0.533	0.500
146	1957/58 St. Louis Phillies	6	Dougsdawgs13	18	75-71	0.530	0.514
147	Tigers/Phillies 1955-56	6	winterhawk	23	75-71	0.526	0.514
148	1925-1926 Reds/Robins (Donohue)	4	DarthDurron	10	75-71	0.524	0.529
149	99-00 AZ/KC	12	ybjsports	6	75-71	0.518	0.432
150	1887-1888 Wolverines/Orioles	1	kstober	9	75-71	0.507	0.581
151	53-54 Giant Senators	6	crazyamos	10	75-71	0.506	0.595
152	Juice 1997/98 Mariners/Cubs	11	joerat1	6	75-71	0.504	0.569
153	2013-14 Pirates-Rockies (Tulowitzki)	14	redcped	20	75-71	0.504	0.526
154	1989-90 Reds-Astros (Davis)	10	redcped	16	75-71	0.498	0.458
155	1979-1980 Astros / Padres	9	toysboys	9	75-71	0.489	0.500
156	J2 L09 77-78 LAD/ATL	9	Chisock	7	75-71	0.480	0.472
157	1995/96 Detroit Indians	11	Dougsdawgs13	19	75-71	0.479	0.527
158	J2 L04 27-28 PIT/STB	4	Chisock	20	75-71	0.474	0.514
159	Juice 2015/16 Indians/Dbacks	14	joerat1	7	74-72	0.523	0.479
160	Rangers/Dodgers 99/00	12	Bill_James47	7	74-72	0.522	0.486
161	1901-1902 Pirates/Giants	2	thejuice6	1	74-72	0.517	0.528
162	55/56 Red Sox-Cardinals Sportsman Park	6	mllama54	20	74-72	0.514	0.571
163	1903-04 Americans/Phillies (Cy)	2	bigsteve12	15	74-72	0.511	0.472
164	1961-62 Braves/Twins (Aaron)	7	bigsteve12	17	74-72	0.510	0.471
165	1939-40 Yankees/Athletics (DiMaggio)	5	schwarze	19	74-72	0.507	0.548
166	1973-1974 Dodgers/Rangers (Messersmith)	8	DarthDurron	21	74-72	0.507	0.486
167	Wilhelms' 1963-64 White Sox/Senators	7	BeAllEndAll	23	74-72	0.505	0.575
168	1899-00 Pirates + Perfectos [Burkett]	2	footballmm11	10	74-72	0.497	0.443
169	1975-76 Twins/Cardinals	8	jrig21	16	74-72	0.496	0.486
170	1983-1984 Missouri Cardroyals	9	emanes10	13	74-72	0.486	0.521
171	1975-1976 Reds/Expos	8	thejuice6	14	74-72	0.436	0.500
172	1955-1956 Braves/Orioles	6	glowguy	13	73-73	0.562	0.472
173	.L10 1991-92: Expos/Red Sox	10	3dayrotation	14	73-73	0.531	0.500
174	1915-16 Phils/Indians/Naps	3	nocomm999	1	73-73	0.529	0.579
175	1951-52 Cardinals/Cubs (Musial)	6	schwarze	1	73-73	0.527	0.514
176	1999-00 Red Sox/Brewers (Martinez)	12	schwarze	3	73-73	0.527	0.486
177	1981-1982 Montreal Expos/San Diego Padre	9	d_rock97	4	73-73	0.519	0.486
178	1909-10 Tigers/Cards	2	SteveIzzy	17	73-73	0.499	0.486
179	Juice 1963/64 Braves/Cubs	7	joerat1	13	73-73	0.499	0.443
180	1967-1968 Indians/Braves	7	thejuice6	3	73-73	0.494	0.528
181	1989-1990 Pirates/Brewers	10	glowguy	17	73-73	0.489	0.486
182	1895-96 Phillies + Pirates [Delahanty]	1	footballmm11	13	73-73	0.473	0.500
183	2001-2002 Dodgers/Rangers	12	kstober	9	73-73	0.472	0.408
184	'2011-'12 Yanks/Astros	14	urband	19	73-73	0.462	0.493
185	'83-'84 Yanks/Indians	9	urband	11	73-73	0.452	0.473
186	2009/2010 TB Diamondbacks	13	Dougsdawgs13	17	73-73	0.446	0.513
187	1929-30 Cubs + White Sox [Hack Wilson]	4	footballmm11	11	72-74	0.534	0.500
188	25-26 St. Louises	4	Jtpsops	13	72-74	0.528	0.514
189	1989-90 Rangers-Dodgers	10	84champs	6	72-74	0.523	0.429
190	Walsh's 1911-12 White Sox/Senators	3	BeAllEndAll	17	72-74	0.522	0.569
191	1959-60 Orioles-Tigers (Wilhelm)	7	redcped	21	72-74	0.514	0.438
192	Giants/Astros 77/78	9	Bill_James47	12	72-74	0.508	0.521
193	J2 L10 91-92 SDP/KCR	10	Chisock	24	72-74	0.506	0.500
194	1979-1980 Dodgers/Rangers	9	kstober	18	72-74	0.502	0.539
195	Red Sox/Naps 1909-10	2	winterhawk	5	72-74	0.501	0.543
196	2017-18 Ari Diamondbacks/Phil Phillies	15	oldtimer59	15	72-74	0.501	0.446
197	Yankees/Braves-Bees 1935-36	5	calhoop	15	72-74	0.498	0.553
198	1995-1996 Reds/Phillies	11	kstober	17	72-74	0.495	0.438
199	Windy City Giants	13	Taxman2008	19	72-74	0.490	0.472
200	1945-46 Senators/Pirates	5	nocomm999	13	72-74	0.481	0.514
201	1995-96 Rockies + Royals [Appier]	11	footballmm11	20	72-74	0.454	0.500
202	1953-1954 Indian Pirates	6	barracuda3	4	71-75	0.543	0.471
203	1971-1972 White Sox/Giants	8	kstober	5	71-75	0.538	0.493
204	Orioles/Senators 1897-98	1	calhoop	5	71-75	0.536	0.539
205	Robins/Red Sox 1919-1920	3	glowguy	10	71-75	0.533	0.562
206	1945-1946 Cubs / Giants	5	toysboys	24	71-75	0.531	0.434
207	2001-2002 A's and Tigers	12	big_dowg	21	71-75	0.515	0.458
208	Dodgers/Giants 95/96 West Coast Brawl	11	coachgreat1	12	71-75	0.506	0.500
209	Nationals/Rangers 2019-20	15	calhoop	14	71-75	0.501	0.541
210	1971-72 Oakland A's/Rangers-Senators	8	pmars2001	17	71-75	0.496	0.528
211	.L09 1983-84: Red Sox/Expos	9	3dayrotation	17	71-75	0.488	0.500
212	1945-46 Red Sox/Indians (Feller)	5	schwarze	6	71-75	0.485	0.557
213	In Ed We Trust (07/08 WhiteSox/Doves)	2	The_Creeper	22	71-75	0.475	0.459
214	Juice 1983/84 Orioles/Reds	9	joerat1	22	71-75	0.468	0.529
215	1977-1978 BREWERS/ TIGERS	9	glowguy	16	71-75	0.460	0.557
216	1939-1940 Cincinnati Reds/Phila Phillies	5	Ribbentrop	8	71-75	0.456	0.471
217	67/68 Cubs-Dodgers	7	spinaldog	18	71-75	0.450	0.569
218	1919-1920 Indians/Phillies	3	pubdog	14	71-75	0.439	0.471
219	Nichols' 1897-98 Beaneaters/Browns	1	BeAllEndAll	17	71-75	0.437	0.514
220	2015-16 Giants/White Sox	14	nocomm999	5	70-76	0.512	0.554
221	87-88 Philadelphians	1	Jtpsops	4	70-76	0.501	0.557
222	Juice 1971/72 Astros/Yankees	8	joerat1	2	70-76	0.494	0.447
223	Coloronto Rockays	12	_JJP_	19	70-76	0.490	0.493
224	1981-1982 Three River, PA Tigers	9	crazyamos	21	70-76	0.465	0.432
225	2021-2022 White Sox/Athletics (Montas)	15	DarthDurron	23	70-76	0.450	0.487
226	.L14 2015-16 Red sox/Marlins	14	3dayrotation	13	70-76	0.441	0.431
227	71-72 Red Brewers	8	Jtpsops	19	70-76	0.429	0.471
228	Phillies/Nationals (2009-2010)	13	fatboydad54	23	70-76	0.413	0.458
229	1925-1926 Yankees/ Cubs	4	glowguy	21	69-77	0.519	0.487
230	1905-06 Pirates-Superbas	2	84champs	23	69-77	0.511	0.452
231	1995-96 Orioles/Marlins (Brown)	11	schwarze	3	69-77	0.507	0.417
232	J2 L13 07-08 CLE/CIN	13	Chisock	18	69-77	0.506	0.514
233	09/10 Rangers-Athletics Network Assc	13	mllama54	8	69-77	0.506	0.486
234	1975-76 Dodgers/Padres (Jones)	8	schwarze	20	69-77	0.492	0.479
235	1963-64 Philadelphia Phillies/LA Angels	7	oldtimer59	4	69-77	0.484	0.466
236	1959-60 Braves-Cubs (Aaron)	7	pedrocerrano	14	69-77	0.473	0.556
237	J2 L12 03-04 CHC/CLE	12	Chisock	22	69-77	0.470	0.434
238	2015/16 Nationals/Padres (Scherzer)	14	jrig21	8	69-77	0.460	0.500
239	1957-1958 White Sox/Cubs (Pierce)	6	DarthDurron	17	69-77	0.455	0.514
240	Mets/Tigers 1997-98	11	calhoop	18	69-77	0.451	0.472
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	---------	-------------------	----------	------------	------------	---------
241	1911-12 Pittsburgh Pirates/STL Cardinals	3	oldtimer59	12	69-77	0.451	0.431
242	11/12 Naps-Phillies League Park II	3	mllama54	19	69-77	0.443	0.446
243	J2 L03 11-12 BOS/BRK	3	Chisock	6	68-78	0.512	0.486
244	Red Sox/Pirates 2007-08	13	winterhawk	12	68-78	0.499	0.429
245	2011-12 Diamondbacks-Red Sox (Gonzalez)	14	pedrocerrano	3	68-78	0.493	0.438
246	Cards/Rockies 2005-06	13	calhoop	7	68-78	0.482	0.514
247	2017-18 Dodgers + White Sox [Kershaw]	15	footballmm11	20	68-78	0.480	0.514
248	01-02 BOB/CLB	2	ybjsports	9	68-78	0.474	0.466
249	2009/10 Marlins/Tigers	13	SteveIzzy	15	68-78	0.457	0.351
250	1917-1918 Senators/Tigers	3	thejuice6	23	68-78	0.453	0.500
251	1955-1956 Reds/Giants	6	kstober	7	68-78	0.449	0.466
252	pre-Keith Hernandez '73-74 Cards/Mets	8	parking31	9	68-78	0.440	0.444
253	LG09: Bigwig's 79/80 Red Sox/Angels	9	njbigwig	14	68-78	0.436	0.471
254	1969-1970 CUBS/ INDIANS	8	glowguy	24	67-79	0.498	0.434
255	Goodens' 1985-86 Mets/Pirates	10	BeAllEndAll	4	67-79	0.497	0.434
256	1939-40 Chicago White Sox/Chicago Cubs	5	oldtimer59	14	67-79	0.487	0.459
257	2003-2004:Oakland Athletics–KCMO Royals	12	Ribbentrop	15	67-79	0.485	0.473
258	1931-32 Senators-Reds (Cronin)	4	redcped	22	67-79	0.485	0.431
259	J2 L02 07-08 PIT/WSH	2	Chisock	12	67-79	0.473	0.425
260	Juice 1895/96 Orioles/Colonels	1	joerat1	19	67-79	0.467	0.452
261	J2 L11 97-98 HOU/KCR	11	Chisock	22	67-79	0.458	0.382
262	Sir Griffey and the 93-94 Royal Mariners	11	gworear	10	67-79	0.452	0.443
263	51-52 Yankees/Pirates (Reynolds)	6	jrig21	3	67-79	0.451	0.411
264	1993-1994 Expos/Mets	11	thejuice6	9	67-79	0.428	0.429
265	2011-2012: Phillies/Cubs	14	thejuice6	21	67-79	0.426	0.500
266	1947-48 St Louis Cardinals/Reds	6	pmars2001	24	67-79	0.399	0.434
267	1919-1920 Pirates/Browns	3	kstober	3	66-80	0.510	0.458
268	17-18 Rockies/Rangers Ameriquest Field	15	mllama54	19	66-80	0.495	0.500
269	2003-2004 White Sox/ Padres	12	glowguy	12	66-80	0.486	0.459
270	Kansas (City on the Bay) / SFG KCR 11-12	14	parking31	16	66-80	0.479	0.471
271	2007-08 Diamondbacks/Padres (Webb)	13	schwarze	16	66-80	0.474	0.389
272	2011-12 LA Dodgers/Chicago White Sox	14	oldtimer59	18	66-80	0.461	0.486
273	1991-1992 Brewers/Phillies	10	thejuice6	10	66-80	0.453	0.534
274	55-56 Yankee Senators	6	Jtpsops	19	66-80	0.452	0.473
275	Roberts' 1953-54 Phillies/Reds	6	BeAllEndAll	12	66-80	0.435	0.500
276	1889-1890 White Stockings/Colts/Solons	1	thejuice6	6	66-80	0.434	0.543
277	2015-2016 Blue Jays/Brewers	14	thejuice6	4	66-80	0.433	0.473
278	Pirates/Padres 1971-72	8	calhoop	22	66-80	0.430	0.507
279	2007-08 Rays-Tigers	13	84champs	21	66-80	0.420	0.351
280	1957-58 Milwaukee Braves/KC Athletics	6	Ribbentrop	15	66-80	0.416	0.471
281	1885-86 STL/Balt	1	Dougsdawgs13	16	66-80	0.360	0.446
282	2011-2012 Nationals / Mets	14	toysboys	24	65-81	0.483	0.408
283	8182 PHI Mariners	9	bagchucker3	19	65-81	0.478	0.447
284	Hernandez's 2013-14 Rays/Mariners	14	BeAllEndAll	10	65-81	0.468	0.431
285	1907-1908 Giants/Highlanders	2	je3rd	24	65-81	0.454	0.395
286	Pirates/Beaneaters 1903-1904	2	glowguy	20	65-81	0.440	0.471
287	1991-92: Toronto Blue Jays/NY Yankees	10	oldtimer59	18	65-81	0.440	0.431
288	J2 L01 97-98 CHI/PHI	1	Chisock	8	65-81	0.430	0.529
289	1923-1924 Pirates/Red Sox	4	thejuice6	17	65-81	0.423	0.466
290	1989-1990: Red Sox/Mariners	10	thejuice6	22	65-81	0.406	0.417
291	Houston Cubs (1985/1986)	10	darny10	11	64-82	0.494	0.458
292	Juice 1921/22 Yankees/Phillies	3	joerat1	21	64-82	0.477	0.466
293	1991-1992 Twins/Mariners	10	kstober	21	64-82	0.462	0.408
294	LG02: Bigwig's 03/04 Reds/Browns	2	njbigwig	21	64-82	0.454	0.500
295	.L13 2007-08: Mets/Mariners	13	3dayrotation	22	64-82	0.444	0.474
296	2017-18 Redsox/Tigers (Sale)	15	jrig21	10	64-82	0.437	0.444
297	1927-1928: Wash Senators–Brooklyn Robins	4	Ribbentrop	15	64-82	0.430	0.472
298	2001-2002 Braves/Pirates	12	thejuice6	14	64-82	0.423	0.419
299	2009-2010 Braves/Astros	13	thejuice6	13	64-82	0.413	0.386
300	35/36 Giants-Phillies Polo Grounds	5	mllama54	16	63-83	0.459	0.425
301	1929-1930 Yankees/Phillies	4	kstober	12	63-83	0.435	0.500
302	1993-1994 Astros/Brewers	11	thejuice6	15	63-83	0.393	0.443
303	1901-1902: White Sox/Orphans	2	thejuice6	19	62-84	0.474	0.432
304	1915-1916 Dodgers/Robins/Pirates	3	thejuice6	9	62-84	0.446	0.365
305	.L04 23/24 yankees/braves	4	3dayrotation	5	62-84	0.441	0.403
306	Giants/ Indians 1963-64	7	winterhawk	16	62-84	0.432	0.421
307	.L02 1907-08: Cubs/Cardinals	2	3dayrotation	13	62-84	0.398	0.446
308	J2 L07 65-66 BRV/STL	7	Chisock	9	61-85	0.472	0.444
309	2005-06 Padres / Brewers	13	nordawg	11	61-85	0.457	0.365
310	J2 L06 51-52 CLE/CIN	6	Chisock	5	61-85	0.455	0.392
311	2017-18 Astros/Orioles	15	SteveIzzy	9	61-85	0.443	0.389
312	1935-36 Tigers + Dodgers [Gehringer]	5	footballmm11	23	61-85	0.441	0.443
313	1935-36 Cubs-A's	5	84champs	20	61-85	0.427	0.457
314	1987-1988 Red Sox / Royals	10	toysboys	9	61-85	0.422	0.461
315	2011-12 Cardinals/Indians	14	SAKABAKBRG	15	61-85	0.406	0.405
316	1929-30 Philadelphia A's/Red Sox	4	pmars2001	24	61-85	0.405	0.474
317	67/68 Pirates/Phils	7	rswift30	24	61-85	0.373	0.378
318	95/96 Beaneaters-Senators South End Gr	1	mllama54	24	60-86	0.462	0.431
319	Hou/Cin 2003-4	12	farleyfustle	20	60-86	0.440	0.452
320	1889-1890: Red Stockings/Reds/Colonels	1	thejuice6	22	60-86	0.428	0.425
321	65-66 Dodgers / Mets	7	sigblend	5	60-86	0.426	0.419
322	01-02 Devilish Mariners	12	Jtpsops	17	60-86	0.419	0.414
323	2015/16 Royals/Rockies (Blackmon)	14	bigsteve12	14	60-86	0.411	0.389
324	1917-1918 New York Giants/Phil Athletics	3	Ribbentrop	2	60-86	0.403	0.446
325	1989-1990 Oakland Athletics Atlanta Brav	10	Ribbentrop	12	60-86	0.400	0.432
326	07 08 Royal Phillies	13	crazyamos	5	59-87	0.458	0.400
327	1963-64 Orioles/Colt 45's (Robinson)	7	schwarze	22	59-87	0.454	0.389
328	1941-1942 Cardinals/Braves	5	thejuice6	10	59-87	0.440	0.389
329	97/98 Indians-Marlins at Jacobs Field	11	mllama54	21	59-87	0.431	0.395
330	1933-34 Yankees-Reds	4	84champs	18	59-87	0.414	0.446
331	19/20 Cardinals Blue Jays	15	Boddicker	22	59-87	0.386	0.438
332	.L08 1973-74 a's / angels	8	3dayrotation	6	58-88	0.435	0.429
333	.L11 1993-94: Cardinals/Red Sox	11	3dayrotation	24	58-88	0.414	0.395
334	1891-1892 Phillies/Pirates (Hamilton)	1	DarthDurron	18	58-88	0.384	0.384
335	1893-1894 NY Giants-Louisville Colonels	1	Ribbentrop	20	58-88	0.380	0.432
336	Beantown Guardians	8	tokerbob42	8	58-88	0.346	0.397
337	1977-1978 Pirates/Expos	9	thejuice6	15	57-89	0.451	0.411
338	17-18 Athletic Mets	15	Jtpsops	18	57-89	0.402	0.400
339	St.Louis Braves 1927-28	4	Dufferman	16	57-89	0.401	0.361
340	Walsh Twins move to Cali 90210 (67-68)	7	hoopsrus	12	57-89	0.394	0.301
341	Montreal White Sox 89-90	10	Dufferman	19	57-89	0.386	0.395
342	1985/86 Red Sox/Twins (Boggs)	10	bigsteve12	15	56-90	0.418	0.392
343	J2 L08 71-72 CHC/MIN	8	Chisock	12	56-90	0.400	0.392
344	1899-1900 Beaneaters/Reds	2	pmars2001	16	56-90	0.351	0.278
345	1983-1984 LA Dodgers/Oakland Athletics	9	Ribbentrop	23	55-91	0.414	0.347
346	LG05: Bigwig's 37/38 Pirates/Reds	5	njbigwig	17	55-91	0.382	0.405
347	1905-1906 Chicago Cubs/Boston Beanea	2	Ribbentrop	18	55-91	0.368	0.375
348	Dodgers/Blue Jays 1981-82	9	calhoop	20	55-91	0.339	0.438
349	.L05 1939-40 Red Sox/Pirates	5	3dayrotation	22	54-92	0.388	0.432
350	1957-1958 Tigers/Orioles	6	thejuice6	14	54-92	0.379	0.452
351	NYG/Chsx 41-42	5	farleyfustle	21	54-92	0.345	0.411
352	.L15 2019-20: Phillies–Red Sox	15	3dayrotation	24	53-93	0.419	0.347
353	1915-1916 Senators/Browns	3	je3rd	22	53-93	0.305	0.361
354	1975-1976: Red Sox/Angels	8	thejuice6	23	52-94	0.395	0.347
355	1913-1914 Cubs/Naps (Jackson)	3	DarthDurron	20	51-95	0.365	0.333
356	1927-28 Athletics/Red Sox	4	SAKABAKBRG	19	51-95	0.356	0.288
357	J2 L15 17-18 NYY/SFG	15	Chisock	17	51-95	0.355	0.274
358	2021-2022 Cardinals/Royals	15	thejuice6	21	49-97	0.300	0.257
359	2001-2002: Indians/Mets	12	thejuice6	24	44-102	0.334	0.342
360	.L01 1885-6 Alleghenys/Beaneaters	1	3dayrotation	21	41-105	0.330	0.289

Using the regression formula to estimate expected wins per draft position, I am able to determine every team's positive or negative win differential for expectation. For example, SteveIzzy picked the 1919-20 White Sox/A's with the 24th pick in league 3. The estimated wins (using the formula) for a 24th pick (thru 146 games) is 65.3. Since his team has an actual record of 82-64, this team is +16.7 wins.

Totaling up each team for every owner, here are the top owners (minimum 4 teams) in outperforming their draft position. Not surprisingly, barracuda3 is ranked #1, with his average team outperforming their draft position by 9.2 wins. A lot of familiar names at the top.
.

Owner	Teams	Wins	Losses	Exp Wins	Diff	Diff/Tm
-----------------------	-----------	-----------	-----------	---------	---------	---------
barracuda3	13	1140	758	1020	120	9.2
ronthegenius	4	332	252	299	33	8.3
redcped	10	794	666	729	65	6.5
footballmm11	15	1149	1041	1068	81	5.4
ybjsports	6	477	399	447	30	4.9
steveizzy	6	447	429	420	27	4.5
toysboys	16	1258	1078	1187	71	4.4
urband	4	301	283	286	15	3.8
schwarze	29	2302	1932	2200	102	3.5
pedrocerrano	12	977	775	937	40	3.4
d_rock97	5	402	328	386	16	3.3
dougsdawgs13	4	289	295	279	10	2.6
kstober	18	1369	1259	1328	41	2.3
nocomm999	6	469	407	456	13	2.1
glowguy	14	1035	1009	1010	25	1.8
darthdurron	10	723	737	719	4	0.4
beallendall	10	738	722	734	4	0.4

This is the same table, but for those with 3 or fewer teams...
.

Owner	Teams	Wins	Losses	Exp W	Diff	Diff/Tm
-----------------------	-----------	-----------	-----------	---------	---------	---------
ejstockman	1	91	55	79	12	11.6
harrelson	2	165	127	143	22	11.2
spinaldog	2	160	132	143	17	8.7
emanes10	3	244	194	222	22	7.3
richiebrown6	1	78	68	73	5	4.7
the_creeper	1	71	75	67	4	4.4
fatboydad54	1	70	76	66	4	4.1
big_dowg	1	71	75	67	4	3.7
taxman2008	1	72	74	69	3	3.4
_jjp_	1	70	76	69	1	1.4
nordawg	3	216	222	214	2	0.7

Thru 152 games, the cutoff for advancing to round 3 is 72-80. (Eight of the nine 72-80 teams would advance). I think 77 wins will be enough to advance. 75 won't be enough, and it all depends on the tie-breaker for 76 wins.

The 154 games, the cutoff for advancing to round 3 is 73-81. Basically, it looks like if you are on the bubble and your team can go .500 from here on out, you should get in. Again, I think 77 games is the benchmark. Maybe a few 76-win teams make it in.

I'll have 1-2 teams eligible to advance, I think. But schwarze, FYI, I won't be moving on. I sitemailed juice a while ago about it. I've just lost interest in this and will stick with my progressives. So you can pass by me when you draw the line for who's moving on and let someone else have my spot(s).

Thanks for the heads-up.

DARNY10 also sitemailed and said he wouldn't be returning as well but it appears his one team may not make the cut anyway.

Here's a fun table. I compared the overall rank after 85 games to the overall current ranking thru 155 games. Here are the teams with the biggest improvement in rank...
.

Rank	Team Name	Owner	85G W-L	Last 70 W-L	Curr Rank	Rank Diff
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	-------------------	------------	------------	------------	------------
328	Windy City Giants	Taxman2008	33-52	45-25	175	153
269	'75-'76 Yanks/Astros	urband	39-46	43-27	126	143
257	1947-48 Indians-Cubs	redcped	39-46	42-28	127	130
264	1961-62 Braves/Twins (Aaron)	bigsteve12	39-46	42-28	135	129
299	1887-1888 Wolverines/Orioles	kstober	36-49	42-28	170	129
243	Schillings' 1997-98 Orioles/Phillies	BeAllEndAll	40-45	42-28	124	119
296	Juice 1971/72 Astros/Yankees	joerat1	36-49	41-29	182	114
278	1959-60 Orioles-Tigers (Wilhelm)	redcped	38-47	40-30	166	112
168	Trout's Angels and Mets 2013-2014	harrelson	43-42	46-24	63	105
259	Tigers/Phillies 1955-56	winterhawk	39-46	40-30	154	105
187	1971-72 Mets + Braves [McGraw]	footballmm11	42-43	43-27	88	99
197	1993-94 Giants/Angels	SteveIzzy	42-43	42-28	99	98
292	1977-1978 BREWERS/ TIGERS	glowguy	37-48	40-30	195	97
162	2019-2020 New York Mets/San Diego Padres	d_rock97	43-42	45-25	66	96
310	87-88 Philadelphians	Jtpsops	35-50	40-30	214	96
174	1937-1938 Yankees/Browns	kstober	43-42	44-26	79	95
163	2021-2022 LA Dodgers/Washington National	d_rock97	43-42	44-26	74	89
181	1887-88 Dodgers/Bridegrooms/Beaneaters	richiebrown6	43-42	42-28	92	89
274	J2 L10 91-92 SDP/KCR	Chisock	38-47	39-31	185	89
132	Foxx's 1933-34 Pirates & Athletics	ronthegenius	45-40	46-24	44	88
196	J2 L14 11-12 ANH/TOR	Chisock	42-43	41-29	110	86
256	2017-18 Ari Diamondbacks/Phil Phillies	oldtimer59	39-46	39-31	174	82
320	Kansas (City on the Bay) / SFG KCR 11-12	parking31	34-51	39-31	239	81
120	1915-16 White Sox/Cardinals (Sallee)	schwarze	45-40	46-24	40	80
157	1923-1924 Cincinnati White Sox	emanes10	44-41	43-27	78	79
125	1989-90 Royals/Cardinals	schwarze	45-40	45-25	47	78
193	1915-16 Phils/Indians/Naps	nocomm999	42-43	40-30	115	78
194	Solano's 2019-20 Brewers/Giants	BeAllEndAll	42-43	40-30	116	78
212	1925-1926 Reds/Robins (Donohue)	DarthDurron	41-44	40-30	134	78
345	Roberts' 1953-54 Phillies/Reds	BeAllEndAll	31-54	40-30	267	78
167	1985-86 Expos-Padres (Raines)	pedrocerrano	43-42	42-28	93	74
231	1979-1980 Dodgers/Rangers	kstober	40-45	38-32	158	73
280	1895-96 Phillies + Pirates [Delahanty]	footballmm11	38-47	38-32	208	72
276	Wilhelms' 1963-64 White Sox/Senators	BeAllEndAll	38-47	38-32	205	71

Posted by schwarze on 3/15/2023 5:25:00 PM (view original):
Here's a fun table. I compared the overall rank after 85 games to the overall current ranking thru 155 games. Here are the teams with the biggest improvement in rank...
.

Rank	Team Name	Owner	85G W-L	Last 70 W-L	Curr Rank	Rank Diff
--------	-----------------------------------------------------	-------------------	------------	------------	------------	------------
328	Windy City Giants	Taxman2008	33-52	45-25	175	153
269	'75-'76 Yanks/Astros	urband	39-46	43-27	126	143
257	1947-48 Indians-Cubs	redcped	39-46	42-28	127	130
264	1961-62 Braves/Twins (Aaron)	bigsteve12	39-46	42-28	135	129
299	1887-1888 Wolverines/Orioles	kstober	36-49	42-28	170	129
243	Schillings' 1997-98 Orioles/Phillies	BeAllEndAll	40-45	42-28	124	119
296	Juice 1971/72 Astros/Yankees	joerat1	36-49	41-29	182	114
278	1959-60 Orioles-Tigers (Wilhelm)	redcped	38-47	40-30	166	112
168	Trout's Angels and Mets 2013-2014	harrelson	43-42	46-24	63	105
259	Tigers/Phillies 1955-56	winterhawk	39-46	40-30	154	105
187	1971-72 Mets + Braves [McGraw]	footballmm11	42-43	43-27	88	99
197	1993-94 Giants/Angels	SteveIzzy	42-43	42-28	99	98
292	1977-1978 BREWERS/ TIGERS	glowguy	37-48	40-30	195	97
162	2019-2020 New York Mets/San Diego Padres	d_rock97	43-42	45-25	66	96
310	87-88 Philadelphians	Jtpsops	35-50	40-30	214	96
174	1937-1938 Yankees/Browns	kstober	43-42	44-26	79	95
163	2021-2022 LA Dodgers/Washington National	d_rock97	43-42	44-26	74	89
181	1887-88 Dodgers/Bridegrooms/Beaneaters	richiebrown6	43-42	42-28	92	89
274	J2 L10 91-92 SDP/KCR	Chisock	38-47	39-31	185	89
132	Foxx's 1933-34 Pirates & Athletics	ronthegenius	45-40	46-24	44	88
196	J2 L14 11-12 ANH/TOR	Chisock	42-43	41-29	110	86
256	2017-18 Ari Diamondbacks/Phil Phillies	oldtimer59	39-46	39-31	174	82
320	Kansas (City on the Bay) / SFG KCR 11-12	parking31	34-51	39-31	239	81
120	1915-16 White Sox/Cardinals (Sallee)	schwarze	45-40	46-24	40	80
157	1923-1924 Cincinnati White Sox	emanes10	44-41	43-27	78	79
125	1989-90 Royals/Cardinals	schwarze	45-40	45-25	47	78
193	1915-16 Phils/Indians/Naps	nocomm999	42-43	40-30	115	78
194	Solano's 2019-20 Brewers/Giants	BeAllEndAll	42-43	40-30	116	78
212	1925-1926 Reds/Robins (Donohue)	DarthDurron	41-44	40-30	134	78
345	Roberts' 1953-54 Phillies/Reds	BeAllEndAll	31-54	40-30	267	78
167	1985-86 Expos-Padres (Raines)	pedrocerrano	43-42	42-28	93	74
231	1979-1980 Dodgers/Rangers	kstober	40-45	38-32	158	73
280	1895-96 Phillies + Pirates [Delahanty]	footballmm11	38-47	38-32	208	72
276	Wilhelms' 1963-64 White Sox/Senators	BeAllEndAll	38-47	38-32	205	71

Confirmed. That is a fun table!