Resurrection of Hoops Dynasty... Topic

jdno
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Quote: Originally posted by tmacfan12 on 11/04/2009
Quote: Originally posted by jdno on 11/04/2009I think it starts with the poor/non-existent marketing...then the other items may creep in and have an effect on a coach sticking around or adding teams.
Can anyone name a single website where they see HD promoted? Or any WIS sim game?
centsports.com
Was this for HD or another WIS game? And if this is the kind of websites WIS is spending marketing dollars on, then it's a wonder they get any new users at all.
11/4/2009 10:08 PM
dalter
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Quote: Originally Posted By cthomas22255 on 11/04/2009

Quote: Originally posted by jskenner on 11/04/2009
I'm trying to remember my Econ 101 class back in 1986. There was a concept (I think it was price elasticity) where the quantity demanded of some goods/services was highly tied to price, and the quantity of others was not. The price of items considered more of a luxury (for instance, tickets to sports events) might see an 8% drop in quantity demanded in response to a 10% price increase (high elasticity), whereas items considered to be necessities would show much less drop in quantity demanded for a similar price increase. Even though HD seasons are seemingly a luxury, the fact that the price is relatively small within most of our overall budgets, produces low elasticity. If there are any economics guys out there, feel free to clean up my argument.

Elasticity is determined by two things:
1. Availability of substitutes.
2. % of income that it takes to buy the good.

So, your argument is using #2 in saying that demand for WIS is relatively inelastic. If that's the case then a firm can increase its revenue by increasing its price. That would be, say, chapter 5.

The problem is, however, is that you learn in Chapter 10 that a firm in a competitive market has to decide out how much to produce: A firm produces all units for which marginal revenue is greater than marginal cost.

The marginal revenue from each additional customer is about $11. The marginal cost for adding an additional customer is about $0. If WIS wants to add customers (increase output) it is going to have to lower the price. The marginal benefit of playing a season in HD is less than $11 to some. If WIS wants to add those customers, as economics says they should, it should charge a lower price.
I agree with moy, it's a good response. But while it's well-informed about Economics 101, it's not well-informed about Econ 101 as it relates to HD.

The reason that the marginal benefit is less than $11 to some is because WIS is putting out a product with a screwy engine (among other things). Basically, the same people that won't pay $11 won't pay $8, either.

The problem is not that the product costs too much. It doesn't. The problem is that the product is perceived by some to be broken, so they're simply not going to buy it.

(And I agree with moy and others again, that a secondary problem is that not enough people know about the product. They've done a terrible/non-existent job of tapping into their demographic, which I find stunning given their affiliation with Fox Sports.)
11/4/2009 10:24 PM
dalter
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Quote: Originally Posted By _hannibal_ on 11/04/2009

As to the rewards points, the customers that dropped their teams because they weren't earning rewards points anymore weren't generating as much revenue as other customers. So the bottom line may not be hurt very much by WIS driving them away. I know the naysayers will claim otherwise, but assuming that WIS is motivated as a typical business I think it is a safe conclusion.
WIS is a dynamic ecosystem, and what the powers that be (and you) hugely underestimated was what a terribly detrimental effect it could have on DII/DIII when lots of the veteran coaches en masse.

Those vets mentored and taught new coaches, populated the CC's and forums, and generally made DII/DIII a good place to be.

Once most of them , DII/DIII became an uninteresting wasteland that's now filled with sims. For a new coach coming into a conference that's 2/3 sims, how are you going to love HD? By and large, you're not, and we're seeing the discouraging results of that.
11/4/2009 10:34 PM
combalt
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11/4/2009 11:15 PM
dalter
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combalt, it sounds like you are agreeing w. jskenner and myself, not disagreeing.
11/5/2009 12:05 AM
combalt
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Quote: Originally posted by dalter on 11/05/2009combalt, it sounds like you are agreeing w. jskenner and myself, not disagreeing.

re-reading and paying more attention yes, you are right.
11/5/2009 12:30 AM
jskenner
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Re: cthomas' well-done Econ analysis, wouldn't there be a 3rd item that determines elasticity? Specifically, the value the market puts on the product, whether it's considered a necessity or luxury? If so, I would say HD would fall low on this scale, but #2 (% of budget to purchase) which is very low, has much more to do with the elasticity of HD. Also, #1 (availability of substitutes) is very low (I don't know of a truly competing product to consider, and by that, I mean a solid COLLEGE basketball dynasty simulation), and so this bolsters the effects of #2.
11/5/2009 7:06 AM
_hannibal_
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11/5/2009 8:01 AM
dalter
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hannibal, the # of mistakes (and I'm taking large ones) that WIS has made over the last several years numbers more than I can possibly remember or mention. The notion that "since WIS says it, it must be so", is so far gone and out-of-touch with the reality of what's actually transpired, I can scarcely respond to it.

Simply put: WIS makes a lot of very bad decisions, and has a history of failing to acknowledge problems. In light of that, do I think it's likely that a group of established vets who've been around HD for years have a better take/understanding of something that WIS does? Yes, I think it's very likely. WIS makes bad decisions. That's their track record. It's that simple.

On the second point, I agree with you to an extent. A year or two ago I had several suggestions for TK on how to better streamline that process and really receive new coaches with open arms. After the requisite back-and-forth, I basically got the standard, "thanks for the suggestion". So I agree that WIS does not do enough to acclimate new coaches.

That said, I think that makes a strong veteran presence at DIII exponentially more important. Right now, that presence isn't nearly strong enough. In years past, it made a huge difference. But I would disagree with "standardization" and submit that some tricks of the trade are much better not simply being laid out and spoon fed to new coaches. There should be a learning curve, there should be things that take some playing and experimenting to uncover, it's a better game when there are layers to it. And most importantly, HD gets dulled down when everything gets spoon fed.

There are myriad ways to improve WIS's handling of new coaches, but a standardized guide telling them every little thing is not one of them.
11/5/2009 8:18 AM
zhawks
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hannibal, the vets in the lower levels that helped bring coaches into the game. Just being able to have a CC chat at d3. The effort for new coaches to learn was much much easier
11/5/2009 8:23 AM
dalter
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Quote: Originally Posted By _hannibal_ on 11/05/2009
There are a lot of assumptions behind your statements based on data that you do not have access to and WIS does. Given that WIS a) has the data
And I forgot to address this specifically. Actually, we have data. Look at the # of sims in DIII when they had rewards points and plenty of vets helping out, and look at the # of sims in DIII now.

DII and DIII have mostly become vast wastelands. DI has more or less held its population steady. There are other issues, but rewards points was a driving force.

Anyone with even a slight degree of objectivity can see the before-and-after and the data that accompanies it. It's damning.
11/5/2009 8:29 AM
oldresorter
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daalty - I agree with the spoon fed rebuttal of yours, the fun part of this game is learning, still is, I know pretty much about the game, but still learn all the time. Often, I learn while helping another coach figure something out thru sitemail.

One note of gloom and doom, the backfill for d1 that naturally comes from d2/d3 has just about exhausted itself, the emptying of d1 is the next natural progression.

Lets hope a new engine and marketing kick arrives sometime during this college basketball season, which has already begun

One last note on the economic theory vs reward points, I think reward pts for newbies and vets alike are like free samples are to an addiction, the attempt is to give out enough that guys spend maybe $250 on 5 teams, rather than $80 on one team.
11/5/2009 9:06 AM
cthomas22255
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Quote: Originally posted by jskenner on 11/05/2009Re: cthomas' well-done Econ analysis, wouldn't there be a 3rd item that determines elasticity? Specifically, the value the market puts on the product, whether it's considered a necessity or luxury? If so, I would say HD would fall low on this scale, but #2 (% of budget to purchase) which is very low, has much more to do with the elasticity of HD. Also, #1 (availability of substitutes) is very low (I don't know of a truly competing product to consider, and by that, I mean a solid COLLEGE basketball dynasty simulation), and so this bolsters the effects of #2.

I think what you're thinking of is income elasticity, which is a little different. You'll consume more of a luxury good with an increase in income. AFter thinking about it some more...

In reference to my earlier post and in response to another poster, producing to where marginal revenue = marginal cost IS the profit-maximizing point of production.

HOWEVER, it is completely possible that they are doing that now. Under monopolistic competition (which is what the market is in this case) the price is always greater than the marginal cost. (And marginal revenue is always less than the price. ) One can think of this price markup as covering the cost of advertising as well.

My HUNCH is that they're not producing to where MR="MC" but I don't know that for sure. It could be that they are currently at their revenue-maximizing point, and that means we have fewer players than what we'd all like because the price is greater than marginal cost.
11/5/2009 11:18 AM
reinsel
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OR ~ I am worried about that too. I was a D3 - D2 - D1 coach, that D3 with the intro of potential. I really enjoy D1, but I worry that with fewer people at lower levels, D1 is going to start emptying and become as empty as my once full D3 conference, that now boasts 2 human coaches.
11/5/2009 12:18 PM
Rails
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Quote: Originally Posted By dalter on 11/05/2009
Quote: Originally Posted By _hannibal_ on 11/05/2009
There are a lot of assumptions behind your statements based on data that you do not have access to and WIS does. Given that WIS a) has the data
And I forgot to address this specifically. Actually, we have data. Look at the # of sims in DIII when they had rewards points and plenty of vets helping out, and look at the # of sims in DIII now.

However, other major changes to HD have taken place since then as well. Can't speak for others but I bought a gift certificate with my reward points so for me 100% lack of interest. I had free seasons had I chose to use them, but didn't.

DII and DIII have mostly become vast wastelands. DI has more or less held its population steady. There are other issues, but rewards points was a driving force.

Was the game itself imho. It's the reason why not all those who know about a free concert go to it, whereas many have no problem forking over $75 to see Bon Jovi or $6 on a beverage at a game when they know the value of that is $1. I can't even give my Gopher Basketball tickets away for free--no one wants them for tonight's exhib. opener.

It's because they see value in going to a game that lasts 3 hours and might cost $150, but don't in a game (HD) that costs $10 and might provide 30 hours of entertainment over 45 days.

Anyone with even a slight degree of objectivity can see the before-and-after and the data that accompanies it. It's damning.

11/5/2009 1:17 PM
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