after reading the origins of the luck conversation, i have concluded that colonels has no idea what he is talking about. and i can't stand that ****!
anyway there is virtually no luck in the process, like you are talking about colonels. virtually none. if a player will drop to you, he will drop to higher prestige schools. if he won't drop to the next lower prestige school, he won't drop to any lower prestige schools, 70 miles exempted. a player tells you 100% deterministically if he is a potential drop down or will let you pull him down. the reason you think there is luck is because you don't understand it. it is EXTREMELY deterministic.
the luck is, does a bigger fish in the pond come take a player you blew your load on? but, that is part of the strategy. i think everybody (well, maybe not you, but literally single every other coach at the very least) would agree you should be able to have competition in recruiting. so i really don't see what you are complaining about.