Posted by amsiegel on 10/10/2012 9:09:00 AM (view original):
Interesting data point on value of HV vs. CV.
273 HV, B- prestige vs. 58 CV, A+ prestige. Promises and calls roughly equal. No favorite school or geographic preference. Both in on the first cycle.
first, we should normalize the amount of effort. but, i would seriously question something you said - both in on the first cycle. are suggesting all this effort was in on the first cycle? my opinion is strongly that considering credit is an improvement on the effort you have in there, not just some flat "hey im considering you still, lets add 100 bucks of effort" or something like that. in battles like this, considering credit can definitely be a significant (10% or more) factor, so the question is, when did these teams spend the bulk of their money?
anyway, at 2:1 HV:CV, we have 273HV to 116 HV for the A+ school. thats a 2.35 advantage (135% more effort for the b- school). some will use higher CV:HV values, favoring the A+ school, so thats the high end advantage (although im relatively positive that is correct).
whats the value of an a+ prestige vs a b- prestige? first, how many grades is that? the first extreme, high b- (low b) vs low a+ is only 4 partial grades. the second extreme, nobody knows exactly, but many believe an a+ can go a full partial grade above the standard a+, and it could even be higher. if we assume this a+ is a partial grade above a 100, if you will, then we have 7 partial grades. so somewhere between 4 and 7 partial grades, although it could possibly be as high as 8, nobody knows. i have seen an example that really made me think an a+ was at least a full half grade higher, with a lot of draft picks involved... but im not sure.
anyway, prestige estimates vary, some common values are 1.5:1, 1.7:1, 2:1. breaking these down by partial grade, we have 1.145, 1.193, and 1.260.
at 4 partial grades, these prestige values yield advantages of 1.72, 2.03, and 2.52.
at 7 partial grades, these prestige values yield advantages of 2.58, 3.44, and 5.04.
so, with any of these prestige values, in the range of possible b- prestiges and a+ prestiges, either team could have won (2.35 fits between the ranges. except with the 2:1 prestige i guess, but we all know thats too high, and considering credit still could bridge that gap). i'd need to see the b- and especially the a+ school pages to put a good estimate in on the actual prestige difference, to give you a good answer on who i would guess won. at the median 5.5 prestige grade value, my prestige grade yields a value just slightly under the HV:CV range, a value that is within the range of what considering credit could overcome. i'd have to guess the B- school won, just based on the odds - not considering given the way you ask the question, id clearly guess the a+, not even doing any math or anything. but its just so slight, its very, very possible the a+ school wins, even with my values on hv:cv and prestige, which are both at the very extreme of commonly accepted values, and in both cases, the extreme which favors the b- school. i would think many coaches would say, absolutely, the a+ school won, but it could go either way.