"but keep in mind if you pick foolishly - you are going for the primary target of a sim, and that target is 1500 miles away"

gillespie, when you say "primary target", are you referring to the guy on the sim's considering list with the strongest FSS word on the street message?  Or is there some other way of knowing?  

every sim recruits the same way. they pick a primary target, and go for them hard - significantly harder than every other target. they also have a secondary target they go after harder than any subsequent targets, if applicable (5+ scholarships - they basically initially go for N-2 players where N is number of scholarships, or 1 player in the 1-2 scholarship case).

now, sometimes their primary target, you can identify with FSS word on the street. but the concept of a sim's primary target was around when i started 5 years ago, well before potential or FSS existed. if you work it, you can get pretty good at guessing who the sim's primary target is, without WOTS. its often the highest overall ranked player in d1, but thats not really it - seems to me, mostly, its a combination of the positions they need the most and the quality of the players they are going for. in d2/d3 where none of the players are ranked, you just have to build a gut for it. sorry i cant really explain it that well, but at least that should give some insight...

now with WOTS, there are only 2 types of messages - strongly considering, and not strongly considering. of the 9 WOTS messages, 3 mean strong and 6 mean not strong. so you really can't get much info, and you can't read into the wording of those WOTS messages. either its a strong message "very strongly considering school X" type messages, or its not (the not 100% sold type messages, but some make it sound like there is an inbetween ground, but theres not). so if you are able to look at the sims targets, say hes got 2 guys, and one has a strong WOTS and the other doesn't, then you know who is the primary target. but in my experience, it usually doesn't shake out like that, and you have to rely on the old school way of determining sim primary target.

anyway, the general rule of thumb is this - the sim spends a LOT more effort on the main target, like probably at least 3x any other target. the reason im rouhghly 20/20 battling sims up a division is because i probably never picked the primary target (or if i did, i was probably aware of it and knew i could overcome the much higher hurdle. actually im sure i have but its always a calculated decision on my part). also, i usually dont battle sims outside 360 miles, but ive definitely won a few like that, when it was NOT the primary target. if you got unlucky and picked the sim's primary target twice, that could mean instead of spending maybe 4-5 home visits to win you might have needed 15, and especially at distance, that is prohibitively expensive in most cases.

one more note. you have to take the # of scholarships into account. a sim with 3 scholarships is putting all his effort (they dont use money) into 1 player, so its guaranteed to be a harder guy to pick off. a sim with 5 scholarships is splitting effort between a primary, secondary, and tertiary target. 5/3 is a lot less than 3/1, if you think about it like that - although most of that goes to the primary target, so i dont actually know if the top guy in a 5 man class is more or less than the top guy in a 3 man class - but the next two are DEFINITELY less that the 3 scholarship case, because the average is way lower and you already know the lion's share went to the primary target.

Do you absolutely need to be an A/A+ D3 school to pull down D1 players (obviously those really close)?

Not sure on this, but I don't know that you can pull down DI players to DIII. In fact, you can only pull down certain players from even DII to DI.

If you give a coach call to a player above your division and the coach says something like "you better move on", "you don't have a shot here", or "he doesn't even know who you are", my impression has always been you have ZERO shot to pull him down.

If that's wrong, someone feel free to let him (and me too) know.

Definitely possible to pull players down from your D1 list to D3. Cases I've heard of it have been from A+ prestige schools pulling down players within 70 miles who were likely just on the edge of the D2/D1 line. I haven't been able to do it yet myself, so it appears to be very rare, but I know others who have succeeded at doing it.

I got multiple backup messages from DI players this recruiting period from a DIII school.   I did have A+ prestige and they were all within 70 miles.

It's not a question.  There is no debate.  You can absolutely get backup messages and pulldown D1 players to a D3 school.  I've only ever done it as a D3 A+, and the recruit has always been within 70, but it is 100% possible.  

Hmm...makes me wonder if you can get the low-end D1 players (guys sub-500 overall) if you get lucky and have someone within 10-20 miles as a lower prestige (probably no lower than a B).  If I get there this year, I will probably try just for the hell of it.

jkumpulanian, I always try to send out calls to players on my D1 list <70 miles away, even with my non-A+ schools. For the most part, they reject you calls, costing you nothing. However, the impression I get is that there is no difference between <70 and <20. Everyone in the <70 miles range is lumped in together as the same. So there is no additional bump they get from being that close in terms of likelihood to give you a backup. However, I don't think there is really any chance of a non-A+ pulling one down off the D1 list. Below A+ I tend to have trouble getting backups from good D2 players.

That makes a lot of sense. I suppose I will stick to D2 pulldowns unless I win the NT this year, vaulting me to an A+ prestige (Definitely counting on that hahaha) or some lightening bolt strikes a D1 player in minnesota and he decides to show interest in Martin Luther.  Although, if lightening did strike him, chances are he wouldnt be medically cleared to play anyway.