Thoughts on a player's career? Topic

Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Tony Mendoza

This is not a question about projecting a prospect's performance, but trying to make sense of a veteran's career. In short, Mendoza has an odd set of skills: mediocre batting eye, contact, power and baserunning combined with excellent splits and speed.

If you look at his ML career stats, it has broken down into 2 periods (and note that his skills remained pretty constant throughout). From S7-S13, he was a pretty consistent 300/360/450 hitter. In the last 2.5 seasons, however, his numbers have dipped to something more like 260/320/400. Both of these have been long enough stretches that it seems hard to say that he was just lucky or unlucky.

How have players with similar skill sets performed? I'm just wondering which of these results comes closer to the "true" performance I should have expected all along. I'm letting him go to FA after this season, so it's not really about making a decision. Just trying to understand the game a little better. Thanks!
11/12/2013 12:30 PM
Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Lawrence Grimsley

I'd say your guy has been underachieving.  Though playing in Portland will cause any hitter to struggle.
11/12/2013 12:57 PM (edited)

He gets a lot of infield hits.   If I had to guess, I'd say your world got better defensively and that's taking hits away from him.    The difference between .260 and .300 is 24 hits over the course of 600 AB. 

Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Juan Ferrer is the closest I have right now.   He's in a hitter's park.

11/12/2013 1:52 PM
Thoughts on a player's career? Topic

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