Posted by headpirate on 2/12/2014 4:24:00 PM (view original):
Posted by artie40 on 2/12/2014 12:05:00 PM (view original):
Posted by headpirate on 2/12/2014 10:33:00 AM (view original):
I think there is a difference between D3 C- (rebuild) and D3 A+, in that if you are new to school and rebuilding, or your rebuild just has not gone as desired, there is "value" (broad meaning) in waiting on all aspects of recruiting until signing day or after. Consider the other thread regarding looking for abilities and not ratings, and disregard any potential growth, any Recruit pursued "blind" should be better than what is already on roster. You do not need the best recruit in the country or even in your backyard, you need better than what is on the roster.
Also I tend to think there is alot of emphasis placed on "potential" growth, to the extent of devaluing current ratings. I recently recruited a player "blind" because his attributes I was most interested in and his ability to play a role were already at acceptable levels.
Back to the point above, the distinction I was making was not value or hindrance of prestige (which at D3 can be overcome, if willing to spend), but the difference in "value" if willing to wait. If the recruit is a borderline D2/All-American D3, the A+ team will get first shot on a drop down or might even be recruiting the player as a seen D3. With D3 players being inherently flawed, it is very seldom you will find one that does everything -- and if you do, someone else has found that player as well and now you have to spend for him. For the same budget spent on just that 1 recruit, you could spread it between 2 and get the same ability (the whole of 2 players being better than 1). it is possible to recruit coast-to-coast for $1500 or less (excludes FSS).
As the teams roster improves, maybe there becomes a better incentive to protect your 200 mile zone or maybe that 1 recruit makes the finite difference in advancing the next round in the NT.
Most of my experience is at D3, only 1 season (I think) at D2. So this may be limited input.
I'm interested in this discussion because I find that there is often a great deal of value and people falling through the cracks at the end of the recruiting cycle. Also, one of the best coaches on these boards (I forget who) wrote once, "I could build a perennial NT team by waiting until the last day of signings to recruit" and that always struck me as interesting.
The idea that a player has good baseline ratings and if they get better from there it's all gravy is interesting. Have you used this mostly when building your team? Perhaps to fill a roster role? What if that player keeps the good ratings but barely improves otherwise, have you ever dropped one of these players?
Here is the player I recruited blind: http://www.whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2665168. Play a Flex/FCP. ATH/DEF/REB/LP/PER came in Red; SPD/BLK(which I do not account for)/STA came in Black; BH/PA came in Blue. I probably will keep this player all 4 years, although by the time he is a SR he may be getting role player minutes. This is Wash Jeff Tark, had team previously, quit game for awhile and when came back they were open.
I have read aejones manifesto, but also got mentoring advice during my first tour and this strategy tended to work well. I very seldom got the stellar recruit everyone talked about, but as a whole the teams usually play well together. I recruit to FCP def first, and this recruit fits close to my "ideal" 4, which he could have done without much more improvement. With some improvement in SPD/BH/PA, I think I am also getting a sometimes 3.
As for late/post signing recruiting, it takes patience and focus. Almost always recruiting 1 player at a time. Someone also mentioned "pre"-scouting the state to make sure there are worthwhile number of recruits. Once signings have occurred I pick my initial preferred recruit, check to see if more identified recruits are from same state, or after FSS check the rest of recruits. Once the recruit signs, I move to the next.
While watching recruits make drastic improvements is fun, it is also nice being able to use the recruit in a meaningful way sooner. Since I play FCP, I want all players available (very seldom would I RS anyone). It is nice to see a 35/35/35 ATH/SPD/DEF improve to 60's, but for 1st 2 seasons the recruit is not contributing anything meaningful. The recruit that comes in 50/50/50 and improves to same 60 has more meaningful playing time sooner.
By FSS late and recruiting 1 at a time, I take the 1st player that fills a role or ability on my team. While it is fun taking Jabari Parker, I am just as satisfied with 5 Shawn Larkins.
Edit: I almost edited out some paragraphs, but considering my lack of NT titles I doubt I am breaking any new ground here. And if I am completely wrong, maybe someone will point it out, I can make corrections, and then get a title this time around.
I like your strategy, in that it is clear you have one. That is certainly key. And, in my world (Allen), the National Champion was about a 530 overall rated team last season, so it is clear that having a very high average rating isn't necessary to win the CHIP, but having the correct combination of talents is necessary. That you're playing FCP means that you'll have some clear advantages in creating turnovers if you recruit high ath/def guys. And, at every point in the recruiting process there are those players available. The last season's NT Champion in my world (Dickinson) was over 60 in Ath and Def and ran a FCP, was seemingly weak in the "skill" attributes of Per/LP/BH/Pass...yet pulled off the CHIP.
With regards to your blind recruit, I would think that Taylor is a bit light of a rebounder to be a great PF, but would be a strong SF.
I have stuck (perhaps stupidly, but I'm invested fully at this point) to a M2M defense for my entire time at my Dominican team. Despite M2M teams almost never actually winning it all (it seems) and the extreme prevalence of FCP in the top-end teams, I have stuck with this defense. I am determined to build a team which can be strong enough to win it all. So, I have recently started to use a litmus test (it's taken me long enough to come up with one), of sorts, and that is "will this player deserve minutes in an elite 8/final four/NT Chip game?" And that is, when that player has reached their potential. So, I recruit towards this end. The key, I am finding, is lining up as many players on one's roster to be ready at the same time, and then having their talents blend well. There's nothing harder than seeing a coach who has loaded up two classes, waited a few seasons for them to mature and then has one season to win it all before another rebuild starts...and then noticing that while that team is super highly rated, they don't fit together well. That is a nightmare scenario, and it happens on HD more often than it should, so I have stayed away from the "superclasses" in favor of other strategies, one being the liberal use of Redshirts. I have used redshirts every year, and have felt very strongly that this has allowed me to use certain players for significant minutes for an extra season than I would be able to if I had not redshirted the player. Getting 2-3 "Final Four caliber player" seasons out of someone as opposed to 1-2 (especially if that player is a low WE player who just needed an extra season of development before entering the rotation) has allowed me to stagger depth charts from season to season much more effectively.
Wow, I'm getting far afield here. And, for a coach like me who is more experienced than expert, this may not be useful. However, I will say that knowing your system and what attributes to look for will help. Knowing what is generally available always helps.
- There are always Hi-ath/def, mediocre rebounding bigs late in the process...but there are rarely guards good enough offensively to be threatening.
- There are usually bigs available late who have blues all over and can develop into hi-ath/def/reb bigs, but they often have mediocre or poor LP games.
- Early recruiting on bigs is usually on the all-around talents.
- Look (at d3) for people rated low but with very high potential to stash for minutes in their soph, jr, and sr years.
- Guards go early. GUARDS GO EARLY!
- Also, sometimes available are late dropdowns, though some can't be gotten for all the tea in china as they are determined to come back next season into the recruiting pool as a transfer player (perhaps, I have simply not had enough cheddar to sway these guys, too)
From my vantage point, then, I'll refine all I've said to say that one can get SF, PF and C's who are all quite serviceable at any point in the recruiting process, but getting PG's and SG's worth their salt is almost always something gotten early.