If you've gotten some kind of a positive message at the end of one of the SV's (kid looks to see if you're watching, our program looks like exactly the sort of thing he's looking for, relative says I think you can get this kid if you keep trying, etc.) then I'd cut back. On the other hand, if you have a message on "saw the other coaches in the gym and we're not even in their league," then you've got a long hill and might need another 10+ to get the drop (I've had to send as many as 23 before...). Also, if you swing from a "positive" message to a negative one (different cycles), it means you're not the only coach trying to pull the kid down (and whoever you're up against is putting in more effort than you are and/or dealing from a superior negotiating position).