It's a fairly easy progression from D3 to D1, in my experience. I'm still working on establishing a successful high major program at Villanova, so I can't speak to how long that takes yet.
D3 = 1 season. I've never seen it take longer than that to be qualified for a D2 job.
D2 = 4-5 seasons, with at least reasonable success, including 2 or 3 NT appearances will get you qualified for low D1 jobs, in my experience. This is obviously easier to do if you "cherrypick" a school that's already pretty good when you jump to D2. I like a rebuild, so I've never done that, but doing so might also shorten my 4-5 seasons estimate to "2-3 seasons."
Low D1 = Approximately 8-10 season with really good results will often qualify you for a low-level BCS school. At least that was what happened at Campbell for me, if my memory serves. I landed Villanova (which was in AWFUL shape when I took it) after turning Campbell around. I had several chances to jump to a higher-level "mid major" program from Campbell, but always chose not to do so, which might have kept me from landing a better job than Villanova.
Hope this helps!