I'll do a very general description of my methodology, with the caveat that this process is super un-scientific and probably just as likely to be flawed as any prediction done off hand by scanning the rosters. Don't worry -- I honestly didn't spend very much time on these crappy predictions.. i've taken a few classes in Excel/VBA so I was able to get this done during a really boring class today lol
______________________
I copied and pasted the team rosters from the league page using Excel's data import tool, and I subsequently used Excel formulas to rate the teams in various areas such as Assists, Def Rating, Off Rebounding prowress, turnover ratings, etc. This was generally done for most categories using things like the advanced stats or usage tiers in conjunction with the minutes played and the like. The category rating numbers themselves of these ratings don't really tell you much for the most part, but the relative amounts compared to other teams do.
Using those category ratings, i ranked each team from 1-24 in each of the categories.
These rankings from 1-24 in each category were then put into an arbritary formula that I created that is likely completely flawed based on my own intuition to try to guess how good each team is. The formula I used is:
| 2.5 * Usg tiered points |
| 7 * efg |
| 2* (created Turnover rating) |
| 5*O reb |
| 1.5*FT rating |
| 3*Ast % |
| 6*Def Reb |
| 9*Def |
The lowest scores based on the composite scores from the above formula were ranked first.
Note: Each stat was scaled to a per minute amount, meaning that drafting above or below 19680 minutes shouldn't affect the data too much. However, this means that I tended to overrate teams with low minutes (who will encounter fatigue I don't take into account) and underrate teams with too many minutes who can cut the inefficient minutes out
Also, the ranking of teams from 1 to 24 is dumb, not scientific, and probably not as predictive as i'd like it to be. And it probably overrates my team, since I'm generally drafting with the same ideas in mind that the formula reflects.
Anyways.... the final rankings (in order)
_______________________________
| Rank |
Teams |
Usg*Min |
RankUsg*Min |
eFG%Min |
RankeFG%Min |
OReb%Min |
RankOReb%Min |
DReb%Min |
RankDReb%Min |
Ast%Min |
RankAst%Min |
USG PtsMin |
RankUSG PtsMin |
Def RtgMin |
RankDef RtgMin |
FT Rating |
RankFT Rating |
Turnt |
RankTurnt |
Comp Score (High is bad) |
Comp Rank |
| 1 |
benjihall |
18.80561 |
23 |
51.56625 |
8 |
6.166191 |
2 |
17.53434 |
1 |
9.45388 |
24 |
2.147901 |
21 |
57.30006 |
4 |
338.4362 |
18 |
2.576141 |
11 |
281.5 |
1 |
| 2 |
krishnaman |
19.40837 |
20 |
53.40109 |
2 |
5.831687 |
6 |
14.33861 |
17 |
10.80148 |
16 |
2.45205 |
14 |
60.59405 |
1 |
363.783 |
17 |
2.68871 |
15 |
293.5 |
2 |
| 3 |
eleibowitz |
20.78462 |
9 |
51.76907 |
7 |
5.242338 |
11 |
16.14405 |
3 |
12.61184 |
10 |
2.538542 |
12 |
51.37246 |
11 |
375.6275 |
15 |
2.788849 |
18 |
339.5 |
3 |
| 4 |
klinke |
18.03017 |
24 |
52.36327 |
4 |
5.349606 |
8 |
14.82005 |
11 |
12.49735 |
11 |
1.908621 |
24 |
51.4331 |
10 |
289.456 |
22 |
2.636387 |
12 |
374 |
4 |
| 5 |
uofa |
19.03579 |
21 |
52.38729 |
3 |
6.095679 |
3 |
15.74136 |
5 |
12.89648 |
7 |
2.239375 |
19 |
45.03996 |
22 |
314.7599 |
20 |
2.575721 |
10 |
382.5 |
5 |
| 6 |
jkaye24 |
18.87025 |
22 |
51.82453 |
6 |
5.297731 |
10 |
15.76319 |
4 |
10.6567 |
18 |
2.055752 |
23 |
50.25461 |
14 |
336.5679 |
19 |
2.543263 |
6 |
394 |
6 |
| 7 |
robusk |
21.1888 |
6 |
51.31859 |
13 |
4.740184 |
18 |
15.0151 |
10 |
13.63684 |
3 |
2.832467 |
8 |
51.51319 |
9 |
488.7314 |
5 |
2.798862 |
19 |
396.5 |
7 |
| 8 |
miller97 |
20.32636 |
12 |
52.04886 |
5 |
5.111192 |
12 |
13.39859 |
22 |
10.56703 |
20 |
2.426107 |
15 |
57.03002 |
6 |
436.4471 |
11 |
2.406333 |
2 |
399 |
8 |
| 9 |
natenoy |
21.75079 |
3 |
49.2931 |
21 |
4.575811 |
20 |
15.06225 |
9 |
13.43965 |
5 |
3.328436 |
3 |
59.23649 |
3 |
573.4476 |
3 |
3.058295 |
23 |
401 |
9 |
| 10 |
98average |
20.91895 |
7 |
51.33897 |
12 |
4.601545 |
19 |
13.46765 |
21 |
13.42517 |
6 |
2.998889 |
5 |
57.08468 |
5 |
476.2143 |
7 |
2.698789 |
16 |
423 |
10 |
| 11 |
dh555 |
19.50592 |
19 |
51.39333 |
11 |
5.699118 |
7 |
15.4903 |
7 |
12.81231 |
9 |
2.209154 |
20 |
48.77174 |
17 |
370.6905 |
16 |
2.573659 |
9 |
426 |
11 |
| 12 |
tarheel1991 |
20.49544 |
10 |
50.80386 |
16 |
4.762546 |
17 |
14.35487 |
16 |
13.62767 |
4 |
2.861185 |
7 |
55.26885 |
7 |
592.1081 |
1 |
2.870512 |
22 |
431 |
12 |
| 13 |
thomcat |
20.8256 |
8 |
50.84115 |
15 |
5.844969 |
5 |
15.4715 |
8 |
11.26359 |
14 |
2.732804 |
10 |
49.99858 |
15 |
412.4586 |
13 |
2.711993 |
17 |
433.5 |
13 |
| 14 |
bigmac945 |
20.27508 |
13 |
49.63188 |
20 |
5.933723 |
4 |
16.33965 |
2 |
13.97204 |
2 |
2.532693 |
13 |
47.27115 |
21 |
280.6067 |
23 |
2.540851 |
5 |
444 |
14 |
| 15 |
bigkochman |
19.64653 |
18 |
50.99492 |
14 |
6.894038 |
1 |
14.77701 |
12 |
10.31022 |
23 |
2.123168 |
22 |
51.26551 |
12 |
238.5321 |
24 |
2.559054 |
7 |
457 |
15 |
| 16 |
benhoidal |
20.46556 |
11 |
53.78411 |
1 |
4.195788 |
23 |
15.51229 |
6 |
11.75313 |
13 |
2.354065 |
16 |
48.01862 |
19 |
312.7814 |
21 |
2.820926 |
20 |
479.5 |
16 |
| 17 |
Jgreene |
21.41714 |
4 |
47.46501 |
24 |
4.944795 |
15 |
13.53587 |
20 |
10.43416 |
21 |
3.108508 |
4 |
60.33668 |
2 |
464.8368 |
8 |
2.654236 |
13 |
492 |
17 |
| 18 |
bkbillups |
20.05304 |
16 |
50.27441 |
18 |
5.314651 |
9 |
14.16504 |
18 |
15.04075 |
1 |
2.733047 |
9 |
48.88717 |
16 |
435.5292 |
12 |
2.67061 |
14 |
494.5 |
18 |
| 19 |
shawnnj |
20.08863 |
15 |
50.80327 |
17 |
4.973751 |
14 |
14.71009 |
14 |
10.39171 |
22 |
2.330276 |
17 |
50.59397 |
13 |
409.6952 |
14 |
2.483884 |
3 |
525.5 |
19 |
| 20 |
hoopsrus |
21.21315 |
5 |
49.95524 |
19 |
4.803774 |
16 |
14.73927 |
13 |
11.13669 |
15 |
2.919899 |
6 |
48.13512 |
18 |
507.4782 |
4 |
2.503711 |
4 |
527 |
20 |
| 21 |
edsortails |
20.15945 |
14 |
51.42687 |
9 |
5.09869 |
13 |
13.06775 |
23 |
10.67665 |
17 |
2.61193 |
11 |
44.74492 |
23 |
442.8852 |
10 |
2.317743 |
1 |
568.5 |
21 |
| 22 |
rjk2781 |
22.68104 |
2 |
48.45412 |
22 |
2.935603 |
24 |
11.62181 |
24 |
12.86063 |
8 |
3.418242 |
2 |
53.9793 |
8 |
487.3782 |
6 |
2.841754 |
21 |
570 |
22 |
| 23 |
smokey57 |
19.70735 |
|
51.41465 |
10 |
4.250684 |
22 |
14.05503 |
19 |
10.60197 |
19 |
2.289055 |
18 |
48.01192 |
20 |
447.1319 |
9 |
2.568173 |
8 |
605.5 |
23 |
| 24 |
Yankeejoe5 |
23.68335 |
1 |
47.68166 |
23 |
4.505611 |
21 |
14.50056 |
15 |
12.40238 |
12 |
4.060515 |
1 |
43.58993 |
24 |
579.54 |
2 |
3.074578 |
24 |
661.5 |
24 |
More detailed spreadsheet found here (complete with kinda complicated calculations for every team. if you are a pro with excel, then you might wanna look at them maybe):
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6GU2xzrSEuRdjE3Q011dWRkWXc/edit?usp=sharing
(download into excel)
6/17/2014 9:26 PM (edited)