13-14 League Preview/Eval Topic

I'll do a very general description of my methodology, with the caveat that this process is super un-scientific and probably just as likely to be flawed as any prediction done off hand by scanning the rosters. Don't worry -- I honestly didn't spend very much time on these crappy predictions.. i've taken a few classes in Excel/VBA so I was able to get this done during a really boring class today lol

______________________

I copied and pasted the team rosters from the league page using Excel's data import tool, and I subsequently used Excel formulas to rate the teams in various areas such as Assists, Def Rating, Off Rebounding prowress, turnover ratings, etc. This was generally done for most categories using things like the advanced stats or usage tiers in conjunction with the minutes played and the like. The category rating numbers themselves of these ratings don't really tell you much for the most part, but the relative amounts compared to other teams do.

Using those category ratings, i ranked each team from 1-24 in each of the categories.

These rankings from 1-24 in each category were then put into an arbritary formula that I created that is likely completely flawed based on my own intuition to try to guess how good each team is. The formula I used is:

2.5 * Usg tiered points
7 * efg
2* (created Turnover rating)
5*O reb
1.5*FT rating
3*Ast %
6*Def Reb
9*Def

The lowest scores based on the composite scores from the above formula were ranked first.

Note: Each stat was scaled to a per minute amount, meaning that drafting above or below 19680 minutes shouldn't affect the data too much. However, this means that I tended to overrate teams with low minutes (who will encounter fatigue I don't take into account) and underrate teams with too many minutes who can cut the inefficient minutes out

Also, the ranking of teams from 1 to 24 is dumb, not scientific, and probably not as predictive as i'd like it to be. And it probably overrates my team, since I'm generally drafting with the same ideas in mind that the formula reflects.

Anyways.... the final rankings (in order)

_______________________________



Rank Teams Usg*Min RankUsg*Min eFG%Min RankeFG%Min OReb%Min RankOReb%Min DReb%Min RankDReb%Min Ast%Min RankAst%Min USG PtsMin RankUSG PtsMin Def RtgMin RankDef RtgMin FT Rating RankFT Rating Turnt RankTurnt Comp Score (High is bad) Comp Rank
1 benjihall 18.80561 23 51.56625 8 6.166191 2 17.53434 1 9.45388 24 2.147901 21 57.30006 4 338.4362 18 2.576141 11 281.5 1
2 krishnaman 19.40837 20 53.40109 2 5.831687 6 14.33861 17 10.80148 16 2.45205 14 60.59405 1 363.783 17 2.68871 15 293.5 2
3 eleibowitz 20.78462 9 51.76907 7 5.242338 11 16.14405 3 12.61184 10 2.538542 12 51.37246 11 375.6275 15 2.788849 18 339.5 3
4 klinke 18.03017 24 52.36327 4 5.349606 8 14.82005 11 12.49735 11 1.908621 24 51.4331 10 289.456 22 2.636387 12 374 4
5 uofa 19.03579 21 52.38729 3 6.095679 3 15.74136 5 12.89648 7 2.239375 19 45.03996 22 314.7599 20 2.575721 10 382.5 5
6 jkaye24 18.87025 22 51.82453 6 5.297731 10 15.76319 4 10.6567 18 2.055752 23 50.25461 14 336.5679 19 2.543263 6 394 6
7 robusk 21.1888 6 51.31859 13 4.740184 18 15.0151 10 13.63684 3 2.832467 8 51.51319 9 488.7314 5 2.798862 19 396.5 7
8 miller97 20.32636 12 52.04886 5 5.111192 12 13.39859 22 10.56703 20 2.426107 15 57.03002 6 436.4471 11 2.406333 2 399 8
9 natenoy 21.75079 3 49.2931 21 4.575811 20 15.06225 9 13.43965 5 3.328436 3 59.23649 3 573.4476 3 3.058295 23 401 9
10 98average 20.91895 7 51.33897 12 4.601545 19 13.46765 21 13.42517 6 2.998889 5 57.08468 5 476.2143 7 2.698789 16 423 10
11 dh555 19.50592 19 51.39333 11 5.699118 7 15.4903 7 12.81231 9 2.209154 20 48.77174 17 370.6905 16 2.573659 9 426 11
12 tarheel1991 20.49544 10 50.80386 16 4.762546 17 14.35487 16 13.62767 4 2.861185 7 55.26885 7 592.1081 1 2.870512 22 431 12
13 thomcat 20.8256 8 50.84115 15 5.844969 5 15.4715 8 11.26359 14 2.732804 10 49.99858 15 412.4586 13 2.711993 17 433.5 13
14 bigmac945 20.27508 13 49.63188 20 5.933723 4 16.33965 2 13.97204 2 2.532693 13 47.27115 21 280.6067 23 2.540851 5 444 14
15 bigkochman 19.64653 18 50.99492 14 6.894038 1 14.77701 12 10.31022 23 2.123168 22 51.26551 12 238.5321 24 2.559054 7 457 15
16 benhoidal 20.46556 11 53.78411 1 4.195788 23 15.51229 6 11.75313 13 2.354065 16 48.01862 19 312.7814 21 2.820926 20 479.5 16
17 Jgreene 21.41714 4 47.46501 24 4.944795 15 13.53587 20 10.43416 21 3.108508 4 60.33668 2 464.8368 8 2.654236 13 492 17
18 bkbillups 20.05304 16 50.27441 18 5.314651 9 14.16504 18 15.04075 1 2.733047 9 48.88717 16 435.5292 12 2.67061 14 494.5 18
19 shawnnj 20.08863 15 50.80327 17 4.973751 14 14.71009 14 10.39171 22 2.330276 17 50.59397 13 409.6952 14 2.483884 3 525.5 19
20 hoopsrus 21.21315 5 49.95524 19 4.803774 16 14.73927 13 11.13669 15 2.919899 6 48.13512 18 507.4782 4 2.503711 4 527 20
21 edsortails 20.15945 14 51.42687 9 5.09869 13 13.06775 23 10.67665 17 2.61193 11 44.74492 23 442.8852 10 2.317743 1 568.5 21
22 rjk2781 22.68104 2 48.45412 22 2.935603 24 11.62181 24 12.86063 8 3.418242 2 53.9793 8 487.3782 6 2.841754 21 570 22
23 smokey57 19.70735   51.41465 10 4.250684 22 14.05503 19 10.60197 19 2.289055 18 48.01192 20 447.1319 9 2.568173 8 605.5 23
24 Yankeejoe5 23.68335 1 47.68166 23 4.505611 21 14.50056 15 12.40238 12 4.060515 1 43.58993 24 579.54 2 3.074578 24 661.5 24


More detailed spreadsheet found here (complete with kinda complicated calculations for every team. if you are a pro with excel, then you might wanna look at them maybe):

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6GU2xzrSEuRdjE3Q011dWRkWXc/edit?usp=sharing
(download into excel)




6/17/2014 9:26 PM (edited)
Wow cool Krish.  
6/18/2014 5:01 AM
13-14 League Preview/Eval Topic

Search Criteria

Terms of Use Customer Support Privacy Statement

© 1999-2026 WhatIfSports.com, Inc. All rights reserved. WhatIfSports is a trademark of WhatIfSports.com, Inc. SimLeague, SimMatchup and iSimNow are trademarks or registered trademarks of Electronic Arts, Inc. Used under license. The names of actual companies and products mentioned herein may be the trademarks of their respective owners.