zorzii, you've made some good observations, but recruiting doesn't quite work like that. if someone who has played d2/d3 in the last several years wants to chime in, in case i have forgotten something, please do so! anyway, here's how it works. players in the division above you fall into 1 of 3 categories:
1) the player will never talk to you - you can never sign him, no matter what you do
2) the player will be open to considering you later, if someone doesn't sign him first. we call this being a backup option, or some will say, the player is a potential dropdown (and just a "dropdown" after he actually drops. its called dropping because the guy will actually move from your d2 search results to your d3 search results).
3) the player will let you recruit him straight away
typically, its only players within 70 miles of your school who can fall into category 3. let's use a division 3 school as an example, as that's where you are right now. its important to remember 70 miles is a special zone, and you should check the 70 mile area especially carefully every season. a lot of the players in the d2 pool who are within 70 miles will be willing to talk to you right away. some who wouldn't consider you as a backup option if they were over 70 miles, will. its even possible some low end d1 players within 70 miles (especially in the 10-20 mile range) will think of you as a backup option.
so, outside of the 70 mile special case, basically all d2 recruits will fall into one of the first two categories. you can determine which of the 3 categories a player falls into by sending 1 single phone call or 1 single coach call (each of which costs 10 dollars). some people find the call easier to understand, some consider the coach call easier to understand, its really just a preference (you can send 1 of each for a while and see which you prefer). people do struggle a bit to distinguish between category 2 and category 3 responses, but you can always come on the forum and ask, if you get stuck. category 1 is easier though, they will say something like, go away *SLAM* or the coach will say, he doesn't even know who you are, you should move on. sometimes it can be a bit tricky, like "it will take a miracle to sign this kid, do you believe in miracles?" (the correct answer is no :).
until you are an expert at d2/d3 recruiting (and mostly still even then), ALWAYS use a call to identify which category a player in a higher division falls in, otherwise you will waste a lot of money trying to get players you have literally 0% chance at.
the way prestige plays into this, is it affects which players fall into categories 1, 2, and 3. guys in your category 1 (no way), as say a c+, many of those will fall into category 2 (backup option) for an a+ prestige d3 school. many of your category 2 guys will start in category 3 for the a+ school, and will actually show in their divisional search. there are no probabilities like you suggest, its straight forward, either you can recruit him now, later, or never - they are all absolutes. except for the 70 mile special case, you can basically think of the players as existing on a continuum, from worst to best (in terms of their own perceptions of themselves, not actual quality), and prestige dictates where the lines are drawn for the 3 categories. what this means is, outside of the 70 mile case, a player who starts in d3 for one school must start in d3 for all higher prestige schools. similarly, any player who considers a school a backup options must at least consider all higher prestige schools a backup option. there are no probabilities, where a guy might have a 50% chance of liking a b prestige school, causing half to be able to recruit him and the other half not to be able to.
that concludes the summary of basic d3 recruiting, but there is one more important concept, that you should be careful with until you are comfortable with the basics. its called pulling players down, or the recruits you do this do are called "pulldowns". pulldowns are simply potential dropdowns (category 2) who you force to consider you earlier, through a special technique. you need to send approximately 10 scouting trips and a scholarship offer to a potential dropdown, and they will usually consider you early. i haven't played d3 in forever so i'm not sure of the exact numbers... i think d3 is a bit lower than d2, and d2 is about 10-14 depending on your prestige. im thinking d3 is probably like 6-10 or something. you might have to play with it to get a feel for the specifics.
the reason its considered an advanced strategy is because its a lot more expensive. you can a player in your divisional search, who is 300 miles away to consider you for less than a thousand bucks - using 1-2 HVs and a scholarship. but a 300 mile player with 10 SVs and a scholarship costs about 2.6K. also, that player is more likely to draw the eyes of a higher division coach, which means you have a good chance of spending all that money and having nothing to show with it. you should start to play with pulldowns after you've already got some players considering you and you have some money to gamble with, and slowly work them more and more into your strategy.
hope that helps... let me know if you have any questions!
9/14/2014 10:53 AM (edited)