After reading through the interesting
zone thread this made me wonder how the defensive effect of any given shot was factored into the calculation on a give shot being good or missed.
So (in zone), if the defensive ratings of certain position groups are averaged together to come up with a "defensive effect" variable in the engine, how is that "effect" then factored into the equation? In the referenced thread, there was some discussion about each groups effect on the shot was weighted differently based on their distance from the shooter. I wasn't completely clear on that, so I could be misstating that, but it would make sense considering the defenders are relatively static in a zone defense.
To extrapolate that line of thinking into m2m defense, how is the "defensive effect" calculated and then how is it factored into the shot make/miss formula? Meaning, is the "effect" simply a product of the 1 to 1 matchup? If so, how would you account for a defender getting beat of the dribble? Maybe it's a ratio between the main defender and the collective rating of the other 4? IOW, 80% the ability of the matched up defender and then 20% an average of the other 4? Or could it be similar to zone- in that, the primary defender would be accounted for on his own, then the next to "closest" defenders would be averaged and then the furthest two averaged together? For example, if the SG took the shot, 70% of the effect would be from the ability of the opposing SG, 20% from the average of the abilities from the opposing PG and SF, and then 10% of the effect would be the average of the PF/C?