The question is not which is better, but whether deadballers make Johnson overpriced: Would you be better off with Eckstein and another $2.3M to spend elsewhere?
Johnson still has significantly better OBP. He also benefits from a positive fielding bug. WIS discounts perfect fielding by players with a handful of games at a positionm but because is 1.000%$ in 31 games, he almost never makes an error. His average in open leagues at SS for a full season is 0 errors; Eckstein's is 9 (with an average of 130 games, that translates to 11.2 errors if he plays every inning, not 15-17). Is the higher OBP and 1 fewer error every 15 games worth the extra money? Probably not. In most parks, you're paying for homers you won't see. But in a + HR park, the deadballers' effect would be reduced and he might be worth it. Another deadballers consideration is the opponent's fielding. Joss and co. increase errors, so putting balls in play becomes more valuable. Most of Johnson's extra OBP compared to Eckstein's is in walks (77-42), which would not take advantage of the poor fielding.
If you've used Eckstein that much, why not search for an alternative? Dropping the fielding to A- instead of A+ opens the spot up to a whole bunch of decent SS with a slightly better bat than Eckstein. HoJo in particular has pathetic range; just as there's a big difference between the best and weakest A+ C arms, there's an almost limitless difference between players barely D- in range and way down in the D- rating for range (HoJo is near the bottom). You might be better off with a higher-average B/C+ SS. HoJo gives away twice as many poor plays as Eckstein, so what you gain in no/few errors you lose in hits that other fielders turn into outs. The low range also supresses double plays. To oversimplify, on an average team in an average park with an average staff, an A+/D- SS is going to be about the same as a C/C SS. Which value is more important depends on your pitching, park, and other factors.
There's a reason Range is more expensive than Glove.
1/6/2015 9:20 PM (edited)