I believe it's actually based off where in the realm of the D1-D2-D3 lists the kid was generated and falls according to the default rankings that the game uses (which is based on pre-potential values). So a kid that "Could be a D2 All-American, maybe D1 with a redshirt season" or something to that effect, grades out initially as better than a "he'll be a solid D2 player, can't see any of the big boys going after him" messaged player.
For a team with a lower prestige, the first player might even appear on their D1 lists initially while a higher prestige team might see them in D2 from the beginning of recruiting. As for what the player will actually develop into, however, that's all in the potential and that's really all that matters. None of that is discernible from those messages, only from the actual scouting trip skills messages.