Agree with your point on pitchers, Mike

Posted by MikeT23 on 3/18/2015 11:04:00 AM (view original):
FWIW, I hold a different opinion on pitchers.

1.  They hold their value longer so that extra year is more important.
2.  Lots of off days early so you can usually use 4 SP until game 20.
3.  If a rookie is my best pitcher right out of the gate, I've got a problem.  But, if he is, I'm not waiting 20 games.

100% agree on pitchers. I have no problem holding back a pitcher. 

Holding back a position player, especially if their strength is range, or power, is foolish, in my opinion. If it's not, and it's a player who will be productive into their mid 30s, I can understand holding them back.

Meh.

Position players, even if they're useful into their mid 30s, have the opportunity to make a difference in 20ish games if you're not holding them back.  SP might get 4 starts and, if they're not your best, you can probably limit it to 2-3 starts if you're moving your best pitchers up(which you should be doing) when they're 100%. 

Again, while you fiddle-fart with a 23 y/o 2B for 20 games in order to ensure you have him until he's 33, you're running the risk of using a lesser player and losing games you might have won.   Games you might have needed to win.

Just to play Devil's Advocate, I can think of one other reason to hold back a position player 20 games. It will save you a little money a couple seasons down the road.

For example, if you have an All Star type player, he might earn $2 million in his fourth season after his first arbitration, $5 million in the next season, and $8 million the next. If you save him for 20 games, he'll make $378,000 in what would have been his first arb year, then $2 million instead of 5, then $5 million instead of $8.

So that would be about $7-8 million in seasons 4-6. Not a lot, but enough to sign a decent relief pitcher for a couple of those seasons.

If he's important, hold him back a full season.   Or two full seasons.  Or three.   If he provides you value, quit worrying about a season you might not even see and promote him. 

Seriously, I plan my teams 3 seasons in advance.    "This is where I'll be if I add no FA/make no trades."    That, in itself, allows me to "plan" payroll.    The easy way, or the dumb way as I prefer to say, is to take the "I'll hold him back 20 so I can get an extra year."   Plan to pay the guy if he's a difference-maker.  If he's not, don't worry about him. 

I'm coming around to agree with Mike on this. If you're worried about 3 seasons from now, you lose today. And you never know how things will look 3 seasons from now, anyway. If the player can help you win a few games, let him.

The only reason I use this is if I have more than two prospective long term keepers coming up in the same season. Just to stagger their arb seasons a bit, I'll hold one back, preferably a pitcher for the above reasons.

If you can't manage 2 good player contracts at once, I'd suggest working on your budgeting skills.