Fuzzy prospect scouting system Topic

Anyone who was at <5-6M for INT figuring he only needed to see one IFA asking for real dinero won't have it kicked up for a few seasons. While the forums were full of BS about imagined unfair changes to ADV, they seem to have effectively accomplished their stated goal of increasing the important of scouting in general. IFA will make no sense without some reasonable scouting investment. The draft will likely be more productive for those with highest HS or College, including some effective players in later rounds. The draft and IFA both seem better and more realistic for it.
6/18/2015 12:52 AM
Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Cristian Satou

Signed him with 4m IFA scouting.   Splits/eye were the same with projections/currents.    Might not ever be a BL player but I had a few dollars to throw at him so I did based on this thread.
6/18/2015 11:47 AM
Posted by bjschumacher on 6/17/2015 6:52:00 PM (view original):
This will be very important for owners who like to build their franchise through the amateur draft. IFA scouting...maybe not so much.
I was only implying that with IFAs, there are other ways you can try to decipher who is a good prospect besides spending your own hard-earned scouting money. In the amateur draft, all you have is your scouts.
6/18/2015 9:46 PM
Posted by bjschumacher on 6/18/2015 9:46:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bjschumacher on 6/17/2015 6:52:00 PM (view original):
This will be very important for owners who like to build their franchise through the amateur draft. IFA scouting...maybe not so much.
I was only implying that with IFAs, there are other ways you can try to decipher who is a good prospect besides spending your own hard-earned scouting money. In the amateur draft, all you have is your scouts.
Seeing that the update knocked down initial demands for IFAs, I'm not sure what you are referring to.
6/19/2015 5:57 AM
The only thing he can be referring to is "testing the market".    If you see a guy you think might be good, there's a very good chance that someone with more IFA scouting also sees him.   So toss out a 8m bid.   If you're high bid, you can decrease it.   If you're not, increase it until you find the sweet spot.   The problem is you may be bidding against a dumbass or someone else with low scouting who may be doing the same thing.  
6/19/2015 6:42 AM
Posted by MikeT23 on 6/19/2015 6:42:00 AM (view original):
The only thing he can be referring to is "testing the market".    If you see a guy you think might be good, there's a very good chance that someone with more IFA scouting also sees him.   So toss out a 8m bid.   If you're high bid, you can decrease it.   If you're not, increase it until you find the sweet spot.   The problem is you may be bidding against a dumbass or someone else with low scouting who may be doing the same thing.  
It would be funny as **** if 2 or 3 people ended up in a bidding war by doing this and ended up paying 8-10 mil for a pile of crap
6/19/2015 8:58 AM
If it hasn't happened already, it will.    And, with any luck, we'll get a "This is complete bullshit" thread explaining how they paid 10m for a guy who projected out to be an A/S but has currents of 11/17/21/12/28 in batting. 
6/19/2015 9:42 AM
Have they made any changes to the messages that announce new IFAs? In my experience, if the scout tells you that a player is a "potential superstar," that's a clue that that he's worth spending some money on. He may not actually be a superstar or even close to one, but he'll almost always look like a ML player.

Aside from current ratings, opponents' bids, and asking price, that's the only other clue that I can think of to get around using scouting.
6/19/2015 1:10 PM
May I disagree?  I've seen the "potential superstar" mail for players who fall embarrassingly short.

6/19/2015 1:25 PM
I never even look at the messages, only the prospect. I'd say maybe it's time to start but if they are all-in on the fuzziness thing, I'd guess they may mislead you with the messages.
6/19/2015 1:40 PM
Posted by damag on 6/19/2015 1:25:00 PM (view original):
May I disagree?  I've seen the "potential superstar" mail for players who fall embarrassingly short.

Yes you may. I haven't done a thorough analysis of this. It was just something I noticed. If I ha to guess, I'd say that the "potential superstar" message means there's a 70% chance that the guy has the potential to be an ML starter, and that he's virtually a lock to be at least a fringe MLer.

If you say you've seen players who don't reach that level, I'll believe you. I can't really back up my observation with any actual evidence, since I don't save the messages. But I'd still think it's one potential clue a person could use if they wanted to get around the new scouting system.
6/19/2015 2:18 PM
Have to say if you think those messages have any real meaning that you haven't been paying attention.
6/19/2015 2:27 PM
I haven't been studying them closely, as I said, but I have paid attention. And they do have some meaning. For example, if it says the guy is an 18 year old 3 pitch power pitcher with control, you can guarantee he'll have 3 pitches. And his control will be at least somewhat higher than his other ratings, as will his velocity. We all know these messages always overestimate the quality of the players, but they're not completely meaningless.
6/19/2015 2:58 PM
Of course, one thing I don't know is whether the conten of the message is tied to your scouting budget. I've been assuming the everyone sees the same message, but it occurs to me that this might not be the case.
6/19/2015 3:23 PM
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