You need to FSS and see what the Word on the Street says -- if the player being considered by the D3 team is their No. 1 priority player, they could well have more effort invested in that one than the D2 player does (if the D2 player is, say, the No. 3 or 4 player Simmy is going after). It's not a guarantee the D2 has more effort in than the D3 (the odds are that's the case, but it isn't a guarantee), only FSS will give you an idea. Prestige is pretty much a non-factor at D2 and D3...I don't even bother looking at it. Dollars make the difference.
Also, remember that Sim schools recruit as if they are 250 miles away regardless of distance.