Baselines are important. and as one's current prestige differs from the baseline prestige, there is a moderating force that 'pulls' to the baseline prestige. Meaning it takes a bunch of very bad seasons in a row for a A baseline prestige team to move down to a C- ... and it only takes one or two good seasons for a significant jump back close to A prestige.
It is also very hard for a D baseline to get higher than a B+ prestinge, no matter how well the do, and only a couple of bad seasons to drop rapidly back to D.
It also seems to me that 'high baseline' schools have a higher expectation for coaches, so it is much harder to get one of those jobs with little Div-1 experience. It is much easier to get a non big6 job and then do well there and use that as a stepping stone to a big6 job.