Newbie Here. I have a question & I can't find Topic

I've been playing WIS Basketball for a few years. I know that when searching for players, you use the 'advanced stats' like reb% and ast% instead of rbs/game & ast/g.. My question is, in WIS MLB, what advanced stats should I be looking for? For example: Should I search for OAV# or OAV+? Which is more relative to the sim engine?

A separate question- I have messed around looking at the player database. I was searching with the '#' numbers. like OVA#, WHIP#, etc. I was assuming that the guys with the lowest WHIP#s combined with the lowest OAV#s would have the best ERAs in the sim. I looked at the 'past performances' on several players.. It seems like guys like Tiant and Koufax perform worse than with similar WHIP#s but worse OAV#s. Guys with OAV#s over .200 and WHIP#s .81-1 are actually performing better than guys with OAV#s at .190 or lower with similar WHIP#s.. Why is this (other than HR/9)- I have taken that into account, but, in my mind, that doesn't seems to make up for the difference I see when I look at past performances. Tiant and Koufax both have past performance ERAs over 3 and a lot guys with worse OAV#s and similar WHIPSs have ERAs between 2.5 and 3. I don't understand how to figure out which guys translate the best to the SIM, bc when I was doing my original search, Tiant & Koufax looked like they would be Gems based on OAV# and WHIP#.. Thanks for any help/advice
11/28/2015 8:09 PM
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Milest, the + stats compare the player to that season's average, so they are very relevant to a single season league such as certain theme leagues that use players from one season only or progressive leagues that use single season stats. 

The # stats compare the player to the overall baseball history average 1885-2015, so these are more relevant to Open Leagues. The + ratings won't help you that much in those leagues, because your pitcher from 1975 or 1966 is not facing batters from that same era but rather from every era. So you need to know how they rate compared to overall history 

An example: since 1930 was a mega-hitters' season like 1999 or 1894, the best pitchers from that season will be very good compared to other pitchers from the same season, but the batters from 1930 will also hit well against them and so perhaps their OAV  is a good one all things considered, and if they were really good, might have a an OAV +140 or WHIP+ 140. But when up against batters from other seasons, if their best is still only average compared with the baseball history average, then they will not do well. On the other hand, if they bucked a trend, such as 1999 Pedro in a mega hitters' year, they may be world-beating compared with the overall baseball average, since their official stats understate  how good they were compared with the time in which they played. 

Grossly oversimplifying, the deadball era pitchers that d_rock97 refers to have numbers that when compared with the overall history of baseball (the # stats) are still very good, hardly any home runs for example, so they are very tough in OLs or leagues with players from all eras. 

So, in general - single season league, go with +, multi-season and Open leagues, give priority to # stats.
11/29/2015 9:34 AM
Neither WHIP nor OAV takes into account extra base hits.  They are useful, but my preferred stat for an initial search is ERC#.  ERC stands for Component ERA, and it's not a stat that you will find in too many places, but it takes into account the pitcher's propensity for allowing extra base hits.
11/29/2015 10:21 AM (edited)
Here are the top 24 pitchers in the WIS database, with IP/162 ot 250-450, ranked by ERC#.

Notice that many of the deadball era guys have higher OAV# than the modern guys, but comparable or better ERC#.  This is largely because they tended to allow fewer extra base hits.

Player Team IP WHIP# OAV# HR/ ERC# SALARY
/162 9#
Johnson, Walter 1913 Washington Senators 364 0.81 .195 0.40 1.47 $16,372,767
Maddux, Greg 1994 Atlanta Braves 288 0.89 .204 0.14 1.51 $13,307,875
Walsh, Ed 1910 Chicago White Sox 392 0.90 .198 0.22 1.58 $15,524,600
Mathewson, Christy 1909 New York Giants 292 0.89 .210 0.12 1.59 $11,872,286
Joss, Addie 1908 Cleveland Naps 342 0.90 .210 0.10 1.61 $12,778,253
Alexander, Pete 1915 Philadelphia Phillies 402 0.91 .198 0.12 1.62 $16,221,577
Johnson, Walter 1912 Washington Senators 394 0.92 .196 0.09 1.67 $17,525,356
Koufax, Sandy 1965 Los Angeles Dodgers 336 0.90 .186 0.62 1.67 $14,039,062
Gibson, Bob 1968 St. Louis Cardinals 305 0.92 .194 0.36 1.68 $12,216,556
Koufax, Sandy 1963 Los Angeles Dodgers 311 0.93 .197 0.48 1.71 $12,224,296
Brown, Mordecai 1908 Chicago Cubs 329 0.94 .211 0.05 1.72 $12,741,189
Hendrix, Claude 1914 Chicago Whales 381 0.96 .196 0.23 1.72 $14,589,740
Guidry, Ron 1978 New York Yankees 272 0.95 .194 0.40 1.73 $10,616,274
Scott, Mike 1986 Houston Astros 276 0.94 .191 0.50 1.73 $11,044,208
Mathewson, Christy 1908 New York Giants 411 0.93 .216 0.21 1.74 $14,894,040
Brown, Mordecai 1909 Chicago Cubs 363 0.94 .212 0.05 1.74 $14,434,556
Sutton, Don 1972 Los Angeles Dodgers 285 0.95 .196 0.41 1.75 $10,970,609
Tiant, Luis 1968 Cleveland Indians 260 0.95 .184 0.55 1.77 $9,944,786
Ford, Russ 1910 New York Highlanders 322 0.96 .198 0.22 1.79 $12,111,223
Adams, Babe 1919 Pittsburgh Pirates 307 0.96 .223 0.06 1.80 $11,925,673
Mathewson, Christy 1905 New York Giants 359 0.98 .209 0.19 1.81 $13,568,855
Cicotte, Eddie 1917 Chicago White Sox 365 0.97 .213 0.10 1.81 $12,970,244
Chance, Dean 1964 Los Angeles Angels 279 1.04 .203 0.18 1.83 $11,057,607
Bernhard, Bill 1902 Cleveland Blues 259 0.94 .215 0.25 1.83 $8,914,136 
11/29/2015 10:31 AM (edited)
I included the salary column because it makes it immediately obvious why 1908 Joss is the most commonly used starting pitcher in open leagues.

68 Tiant and 65 Koufax have very low OAV, but allow many more HR than just about any other pitcher on the list.  This is (likely) the reason they do not do as well as you might think.
11/29/2015 10:23 AM (edited)
Now here's the same pitchers, comparing their ERC# with their performance history ERA:

Player Team IP ERC# PH
/162 ERA
Johnson, Walter 1913 Washington Senators 364 1.47 2.67
Maddux, Greg 1994 Atlanta Braves 288 1.51 2.56
Walsh, Ed 1910 Chicago White Sox 392 1.58 2.73
Mathewson, Christy 1909 New York Giants 292 1.59 2.88
Joss, Addie 1908 Cleveland Naps 342 1.61 2.72
Alexander, Pete 1915 Philadelphia Phillies 402 1.62 2.79
Johnson, Walter 1912 Washington Senators 394 1.67 2.68
Koufax, Sandy 1965 Los Angeles Dodgers 336 1.67 3.10
Gibson, Bob 1968 St. Louis Cardinals 305 1.68 2.94
Koufax, Sandy 1963 Los Angeles Dodgers 311 1.71 3.09
Brown, Mordecai 1908 Chicago Cubs 329 1.72 2.94
Hendrix, Claude 1914 Chicago Whales 381 1.72 2.97
Guidry, Ron 1978 New York Yankees 272 1.73 3.25
Scott, Mike 1986 Houston Astros 276 1.73 3.25
Mathewson, Christy 1908 New York Giants 411 1.74 2.98
Brown, Mordecai 1909 Chicago Cubs 363 1.74 2.97
Sutton, Don 1972 Los Angeles Dodgers 285 1.75 3.08
Tiant, Luis 1968 Cleveland Indians 260 1.77 3.11
Ford, Russ 1910 New York Highlanders 322 1.79 3.03
Adams, Babe 1919 Pittsburgh Pirates 307 1.80 3.01
Mathewson, Christy 1905 New York Giants 359 1.81 3.16
Cicotte, Eddie 1917 Chicago White Sox 365 1.81 3.11
Chance, Dean 1964 Los Angeles Angels 279 1.83 3.43
Bernhard, Bill 1902 Cleveland Blues 259 1.83 3.18
11/29/2015 10:00 AM
There's a pretty strong correlation there.  Dean Chance has very few seasons in his PH, so I'm going to eliminate him.  Using the other 23 pitchers, I get a correlation of 0.81, which is extremely strong.

Keep in mind that performance history ONLY included performance from open leagues.

For those whose eyes glaze over at advanced statistics, feel free to ignore the following...it's interesting, but not that relevant to understanding the SIM.  And for those who are experts in advanced stats, yes I know that I am oversimplifying and ignoring a lot of stuff.  

I used Excel to fit a linear model predicting ERA from ERC#, and it gives: ERA = (1.63*ERC#)+ 0.2

The p-value on the intercept is not statistically significant, so for all practical purposes I'm going to consider it zero.  ERC# predicts ERA very well for this group of pitchers, with an R2 of 0.66.  

If I fit a similar model using WHIP# as the independent variable, I get ERA = (3.65*WHIP#) - 0.4.  Again the intercept is not significant.  The R2 now is only 0.47, not nearly as strong.

OAV# by itself is not a good predictor of ERA.  And using OAV# and WHIP# together does not significantly improve the model over using WHIP# by itself.  



11/29/2015 10:18 AM
Sweet!! Thanks for the information!
12/3/2015 4:31 PM
Don't forget ballpark Milest. You pitchers will perform better in ballparks that yield fewer runs. Build your lineup to fit your ballpark. If you go for low OAV, low HR allowed, and low walks allowed you should be fine.
12/3/2015 4:45 PM
Newbie Here. I have a question & I can't find Topic

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