I'm not in Allen, so I can't see, but looks like you only play 4 SIMS in conference play. But just doing very basic scan it looks tough for you to get to 14 wins.
If I were you in year 3 I would expect improvement, but want wins. I would schedule to go 10-0 in OOC, even it it was the 10 worst rated sims on the road.
By all means, build up Chowan, it's always good when you have a reason for a school, but at D3 HCA isn't something you need to worry about as much. You want to take Chowan to the NT, and get some wins there, starting soon. That's literally the only thing that matters. USA South is almost always a good conference, so conference play will improve your RPI and projection report status. But you gotta get the wins first.