Seble's comments on Beta Testing Forums Topic

chapelhillne
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These are comments by Seble on the Beta Testing forums. This should help those not in Beta Testing get an idea of how things are working. Changes are being made as more is discovered, but you can get an idea of what is going on there and some of the changes that are being made, if you are not involved in it.

SEBLE COMMENTS ON BETA TESTING
I will be using more polls. The changes that I've made are ones I feel are called for based on all the feedback.


BUDGETS - SCOUTING AND RECRUITING:
For scouting, each team gets a base amount plus a little extra per opening.
Base = 50k for DI, 30k for DII, and 10k for DIII
Per Opening = 5k for DI, 3k for DII, and 1k for DIII
For recruiting, it's all on a per opening basis - 3k for DI, 2k for DII, and 1k for DIII.
Scouting budget is for finding recruits and using tools to get more accurate rating values.
Recruiting budget is for home visits and campus visits.
Attention points are outside the budgets and are essentially a simplified replacement for calls, letters, etc.
DESCRIPTION ON HOW RECRUITING WORKS:
Answer to D2 school losing recruit at last minute to Wisconsin: But ultimately, a good DI program is likely always going to win that battle if they so desire to.

It's very possible to have multiple schools at Very High. I think it will take some adjustment time, but eventually coaches will learn not to be scared off by interest level.

Scholarship offers now give you credit, which would help unlock visits.

I need to take another look at unlocking. I think the prestige tweak may have made it harder for lower level schools to unlock things.

Geez, even after the changes you made this guy still isn't unlocked. I have nearly 1050 AP sunk into him at this point. You're a DIII C- school going after a DII player with very bad match on prefs. That's going to be an uphill battle, as it should be.

I am D1 B+ and have 550 AP in a one star and he won't unlock??! That's crazy! I rescinded and offered a schollie early on to test it and when I re-offered I probably got zero credit and when I rescinded it probably punished me... But wow, that's steep for a guy whose preferences mostly match up in my level.
You withdrew the scholarship offer 3 times, so that generated a ton of negative credit. You have zero chance on him.

QUESTION: I have been the only team "Very High" on his interest list for 20+ cycles now. Is he interested or not?!? I seem to be getting mixed signals. ANSWER: Yeah, you're definitely top of the list. There's no reason to worry about visits until someone else challenges you for him. You can look at it like this: you're the most interested team so far, but he's holding out hope for a better situation.

ANSWER: Yes, a recruit will sign without unlocking any visits or promises. A recruit won't wait to sign. If he's ready, and has offers on the table, he will sign. Signing is only time-based, not based on total credit. So you can't induce a recruit to sign earlier by throwing more effort at him.

Being considered really doesn't carry much weight in the new system. You could disperse 1 AP to 100 recruits over a few cycles and be on their list. But that doesn't mean you're spread thin, since you can remove all those points and refocus them.


I've seen some comments about it being too easy to get a high interest level. An relatively easy change would be to cap it at Moderate until you hit a certain level of total credit.

The final cycle of signings will most likely have a second check on interest level, such that if there are no High or Very High teams, it would look for Moderate level teams.






ATTENTION POINTS:
Currently it's 20 points per opening, but only 10 for walk-on openings. That applies to all schools evenly. I considered giving no resources for a walk-on opening, but that seemed a little too extreme. I'm still on the fence about this, so it's possible it could change. We intentionally want to discourage walk-ons. We don't want it to become a successful strategy to take several walk-ons every season in order to use more resources on the main targets. That happens quite a bit now I think, and it gives an advantage to those teams. It should be easy enough to sign undecided guys late in the process if your main targets fall through.
REDSHIRTING:
Logic for acceptance is the same. The only difference is the instant response.

EXHIBITION GAMES: You'll be able to schedule exhibition games on Monday or Tuesday.

OPTIMIZE DEPTH CHART FEATURE: Yes, it's the same logic used by SimAI teams, but I did re-write it to be a little smarter. Sim teams will use the same optimizations.

NUMBER OF SEASONS BETA WILL RUN:
I'd like to do at least 2-3 seasons, but it depends on how things go. Seble posted on my thread about timing. He said we'll do 1 game at a time in the beginning and then fast forward to the end. Then skip postseason. My uneducated guess is that each 'season' will last 2 weeks real time. My plan is to go normal speed for a few days to let you guys get into scouting, then probably jump ahead to get close to the start of recruiting. I'll probably also speed through the postseason since that's a recruiting dead period.



POTENTIAL RATINGS:
The ranges have not changed, and pretty much match what you've posted here. I added the extra 2 categories because I figured if it's something you can learn during recruiting, it's kinda dumb that it's not available after signing a player.
low-low: 0-2
high-low: 3-6
medium: 7-20
low high: 21-27
high high: 28+

PARITY / PLAYER RATINGS:
the same number of high level guys still exist but either as a direct result of the new system or simply because of the world being entirely SIMs they are ending up in different places. There are still high prestige schools in this world, even if they're not the ones you're used to seeing. A major point of the update is to better distribute talent, so it's to be expected that you'll start seeing fewer schools with top to bottom elite players. The transition will take longer in a real world than it has in this test world, but I don't think that affects evaluating how the new system works.

CURRENT ROSTER AT START OF BETA:
In the new system, recruits signed in the current season will appear on your roster next season. So the freshmen on your roster were recruited last season. Your current roster is what you'll play the season with. You can't rescind until after the current season is over, but that's before the second recruiting period.
SIM RECRUITING LOGIC: Sim teams will recruit much more like humans now. The biggest difference is that instead of doing the full scouting process, they'll be given a random scouting pool to recruit from, based on distance (varying by division) and budget. When it comes to recruiting itself, they'll seek out targets who are in their scouting pool who fit position need. From there, they'll use the allocated attention points to begin pursuing targets. They will also use visits and offer scholarships when they have generated enough interest, but they're constrained by the same recruiting budget as human teams. If they begin to fall behind in a battle, they'll bail and look for another target. Sim teams will re-assess their targets at each cycle and make changes if necessary, so they will be more dynamic. They won't avoid players who are being targeted by human coaches. Budget costs for sim teams will be the same as humans, so they will pay the rate for visits based on the distance of the player.
D3 TEAM SIGNS #17 PF. Keep in mind, this player was visible and recruitable by all schools from the beginning. A DI or even DII school could have pretty easily beaten him out. I don't think things like this will happen once people get the hang of the new system.

PENALTY FOR WALK-ONS: That penalty will likely go away if i change resource allocation.
On a related point, it's going to be a good idea to line up as many potential back up targets as possible.

RECRUIT SIGNING LOGIC: Is there a way to know what the recruit prefers? (asap, end of session 1, late or whenever) A way to understand which option they are likely to follow?
Not currently, no. I can't decide if that's something to reveal or not.


CARRY OVER FOR TEAMS THAT HAVE FILLED THEIR ROSTERS AND HAVE LEFTOVER RECRUITING DOLLARS: At this time, there is no carryover.

DUMPING HOME VISITS AT THE LAST MINUTE OF EACH CYCLE: If I institute any restrictions, it would probably be time-based, so maybe you can only do a visit every 6 hours or something. QUESTION: Would it be easier to just follow gillespie's suggestion and have a guy not sign immediately if there has been wild swings in interest in the last three hours? that way, we don't have to get back online every three hours to add another HV, but we also prevent 7:59 sniping. ANSWER: That would be tougher now that interest can change at any time.

One change that could further curtail poaching would be to lock scholarship offers similar to visits. That would keep teams from just throwing around offers to unlock visits. The whole concept is that attention points would be the first line of contact, so I don't like being able to skip that step. Attention points should be enough to unlock visits within a day or less, assuming the guy isn't out of your expected range.



SIGNING TENDENCIES OF PLAYERS: Currently, signing tendency is split evenly between the four possibilities: As soon as possible, By the end of session 1, Late, or Whenever. I'm open to adjusting those odds if you guys feel the ratios should change. I'm open to the idea of exposing that information, but I'm not sure just anyone should see it. Maybe once you get to High interest.


RANDOMNESS: Randomness in this context doesn't mean you have no control over it. I understand the desire to have fully predictable results, but is that really fun or exciting? The current system has evolved into a giant math problem that a small number of people have solved to a degree where there is domination. All I'm trying to do is make it more like a game and less like a formula.

RECRUITING SCENARIO ANALYSIS:
QUESTION: My A+ prestige Illinois squad has only one opening. The #14 player in the country Ryan Toywas 94 miles away from campus. I put my full 20 Attention Points into him for a day an a half while at Very Low Interest. Once visits were unlocked I put everything I had into him immediately and shot up to Very High. Slowly but surely over the past day A- Michigan State threw more attention his way until we were both Very High (me still on top if that matters) and he decided to sign with them at the 8AM cycle. No complaints about who I lost to or sniping MSU approached it in a smart way.

I would like to know how the percentages broke down when Toy made his decision so that I can evaluate how a team in this position should strategize going forward. I realize if the same situation had happened in the current game MSU still would have had more cash to throw at him due to the open scholarships but UofI as a well run top tier school would likely have had roll over cash as well. Should a team in that situation simply lower their sights and not target the kind of elite recruit necessary to stat at that level?

ANSWER: You had a small edge in total credit despite MSU spending quite a bit more in resources. Based on that data, you had about a 55% chance of signing him.

FOLLOW UP QUESTION: Thanks for the quick response, that is roughly what I figured. I think maybe it was worth the risk. He probably could have kept spending and gotten ahead of me and I still would have had a ~40% chance of signing him too. Count me in the column of people that doesn't hate the randomness completely even though it just fell against me. It would have been nice as has been discussed elsewhere if we got some feedback from the player on whether he has a preference to sign early or late though.

ANSWER: I understand the value of knowing the signing tendency, but giving up that information would open up sniping or poaching opportunities more.

FOLLOW UP: My thought on that would be to not have that information be available to everyone and to either only get it once you offer a scholarship or once you hit Very High/High interest.

ANSWER: That's a possibility.

PREFERENCES: Offense and Defense are based on the most common set you've run in the current season. The Fast Tempo preference is based on the team's possessions per game in the current season.

SIGNINGS TIMING: Signings are at the normal cycles.

RECRUITING SCENARIO ANALYSIS #2
QUESTION: Im wondering if you can break down the recruitment of Carlos Hayes between Oregon & Oregon St. We were both on him since the beginning as Very High and we are both A+ prestige. Im guessing we have the same "preferences" so my question is did it just came down to campus visits? What were the odds between us & Oregon St to sign him? Thanks
ANSWER: Very even battle in both total resources used and total credit earned. Oregon St. had a slight edge in credit, so that gave them a bit higher odds. Oregon St. had a little higher A+ prestige as well.

INTEREST LEVEL OF RECRUITS: Interest level is all you need to know where you stand. Yes, order is random at the same interest level. It's not nearly as important in this system to know who is "leading". As long as you're High or Very High, then you have a shot. The more effort you put in, the better your odds will be to sign a guy, even if you're already Very High. So, it's really a strategic decision on your part whether to keep putting in effort or to move that to someone else. (also, from another thread – all “highs” and “very highs” are not equal.

D3 SCHOOL LEADING AT BEGINNING OF RECRUITING ON TOP 100 RECRUIT: He is considering Coe because no other schools have pursued him yet. Of course a DI school could take the lead, but that school would have to put in some amount of effort. You think they should just be able to snap their fingers and take him away with no effort? He will definitely sign with a D3 school if that's his best option. You may also see AI schools jump onto him at some point as their primary targets don't pan out. So it's still a major risk to spend resources on a player well above your expected range.


D2/D3 COMPETITION EARLY ON: Question - Eric Riel, #33 PF in the country, a D2 is very high with him as am I (D1). The D2 school, Kutztown is B+ prestige, I (New hampshire) am a D. But wouldn't a D prestige D1 still have considerable advantage over B+ D2?
You are getting more credit per attention point than Kutztown, but he's offsetting that somewhat by having more attention points on him. To give you more detail on how this example is working, Kutztown is getting about 80% credit for their recruiting actions. New Hampshire is getting about 135% credit. Part of that difference is the recruit's preference for a strong conference, but the rest is based on the prestige gap. Kutztown has put in 130 total attention points and NH has done 70. Kutztown has a slight edge in total credit right now.
– (Note from Chapelhillne – I ended up getting this guy at Dartmouth. C prestige. New Hampshire and us were both Very High. Once I unlocked HVs it was pretty easy to knock Kutztown off)

PROJECTED LEVEL: I did add the projected level to recruit profile, at the top. That doesn't really mean anything as far as who he might sign with, but it should give a good idea of where he will land.

D2 WINNING ON #2 RECRUIT EARLY: QUESTION: The #2 Recruit in the country is currently very high on Armstrong Atlantic State a D2 school with B+ prestige. Unless his dad is the coach there it seems unrealistic to me that this would ever happen?
ANSWER: Armstrong is putting a massive amount of points on that guy and still trails Tennessee slightly. I'm getting the sense that you guys think prestige should be a stronger factor. Is that the case? Armstrong and Tennessee are getting about the same credit with Armstrong putting in 98 points and Tennesee 35. Preferences are pretty much a wash. So, I'm a little confused. I get complaints all the time about elite teams having such a huge advantage, but I get the sense that you guys want prestige to be the main deciding factor here. Every recruiting action is adjusted for prestige, so Tennessee gets way more credit per action than Armstrong. In this case, Armstrong is hanging around because they have a lot of points and they're putting them all in this basket. I will look at increasing the prestige adjustment and I may add value to scholarship offers as well. (Note from Chapelhillne – Value was added to scholarship offers after his post).

QUESTION: I'm not sure how much Armstrong has put in, but I (A- Tennessee) have now had an in-home visit and D2 Armstrong is still blowing me out of the water (they are "very high," I am "low") on this one. Yes, I will be able to win (or at least beat Armstrong--I may lose to UNC or Duke), but when a D1 power school is visiting a recruit's home, they really shouldn't still be seriously considering a D2 school. Especially not when the recruit has a preference for a successful school!

Basically, the prestige difference between an A- D1 school and a B+ D2 school should be more than the roughly 3x (that is, Armstrong needs to put up 3x the effort of Tennessee to stay even) that it is now.

ANSWER: Armstrong just put in 8 home visits, a campus visit, and promises. I'm putting out a update to make prestige more impactful, because I think there is a valid argument there. I'm also adding value to scholarship offers. It's hard to evaluate the existing battles since these changes aren't retroactive for past recruiting actions. Preferences will mean less the more impact we give prestige, so that's something to keep any eye on. They're still pretty meaningful though. Armstrong is getting some boost for success, but not as much as Tenn, Duke, or UNC. Success is independent of division, so a good DII team could be on par with a good DI team in that area. The separator then would be the prestige adjustment.

WITHDRAWING A SCHOLARSHIP: There was always a severe penalty for withdrawing a scholarship. Early on there was a bug that gave positive credit instead of negative, but that's been fixed for several days.

RECRUITING BATTLE ANALYSIS: Wyoming, a C+, is hanging with Oregon, an A+, by putting in more effort. Did you have more specific questions? QUESTION: Now I am totally confused because it says I am very high once again and I didn't do much. Any insight on what is going on with Will Cartwright would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.
ANSWER: Looks like you were Moderate, then a pair of Home Visits bumped you to High, and then a pretty high amount of attention points has bumped you to Very High. You have a pretty good preference match on this guy too, which is helping.
































6/11/2016 9:26 AM
zorzii
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SIGNING TENDENCIES OF PLAYERS: Currently, signing tendency is split evenly between the four possibilities: As soon as possible, By the end of session 1, Late, or Whenever. I'm open to adjusting those odds if you guys feel the ratios should change. I'm open to the idea of exposing that information, but I'm not sure just anyone should see it. Maybe once you get to High interest.

That thing needs to be fixed. The guy signing late kill strategy. It needs to be predictable so teams can adjust not wait until others, who got early signing, get on your recruits. Second, It seems that having more schollies still give too much of an edge. Say you have two and he has four, you won't get to Very High if you battle with him. He will just grab the player and get walk-ons.
6/11/2016 11:16 AM
taniajane
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Not sure you want walk-ons with the new penalty for them...or might not be a factor..who knows "PENALTY FOR WALK-ONS: That penalty will likely go away if i change resource allocation."
6/11/2016 11:19 AM
Seble's comments on Beta Testing Forums Topic
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