Posted by possumfiend on 9/28/2016 3:39:00 PM (view original):
Posted by kcsundevil on 9/28/2016 3:21:00 PM (view original):
I realize I'm in the minority among experienced coaches re APs, and that's fine.
Early on, one stated goal of WIS in 3.0 was to make HD less of a math problem to be solved and exploited. At some point that seems to have been not only abandoned, but the course was fully reversed toward making it all about math. I find this reversal fascinating, and that fascination is the main reason I'm still here.
But isn't that exactly where the random element comes into play and becomes necessary? Even if you develop some mathematical formula you can't really exploit the RNG that decides every so often that a "H" beats a "VH".
Now if they take that out of the game I'd agree it becomes nothing but a mathematical formula to be gamed from the top down.
I definitely think it's a math problem. Not saying that's bad but I think it is.
And I think figuring out RNG for H vs VH is even MORE of a math problem. Think of it this way. You're going to experience diminishing returns on your recruiting effort. You could send a bunch of effort but only increase your chances of winning the recruit by 1-2%. While you could use that effort on a different recruit an increase your chance of getting him by 25%.
If you're able to figure all that stuff out, it can definitely help you. I don't know if it's exploitation or 'gaming' but it would help if you knew your percentages.