I currently have the 3rd and 7th picks in the upcoming draft. Sadly I only have $10M in College scouting (0 in HS).

I've heard mixed results on middle-of-the-pack scouting budgets. Do the projections have any value or is $10M pretty much the same as $0M?

I'd be surprised (and skeptical) if anyone can offer a reasonably definitive answer on the difference between $10M and $0M beynd the obvious that $10M is going to be better but not terribly good. In theory, mixed results is exactly what we should get for mid-pack scouting. There is, and should be, a risk of getting two turds with $10M.

Posted by joshkvt on 10/31/2016 11:51:00 AM (view original):
I'd be surprised (and skeptical) if anyone can offer a reasonably definitive answer on the difference between $10M and $0M beynd the obvious that $10M is going to be better but not terribly good. In theory, mixed results is exactly what we should get for mid-pack scouting. There is, and should be, a risk of getting two turds with $10M.

I agree $10M shouldn't be great, but seems foolish to have an all-or-nothing scouting system, where anything below 14-16M is pretty much worthless.

This is why they need to institute scouting zones. Or have budget impact how many prospects you see/scout, as opposed to quality of ratings. Just doesn't make sense that $0M, $6M and $12M should all create the same amount of uncertainty when it comes to assessing potential draft picks.

Nobody said it's the same amount. It's just not good. But it never was.

Posted by damag on 10/31/2016 12:23:00 PM (view original):
Nobody said it's the same amount. It's just not good. But it never was.

Precisely. $10M might well give you a 50-50 shot at a solid pick, which seems like what it should do. When someone with $10M gets a good player, life quietly goes on. When someone with $10M gets a turd — which should happen roughly half the time — we see "the draft sucks" complaints. If anyone claims $0 and $10M are the same, it should be backed up by evidence (and "look at this one turd I got" is not evidence). There's a yuge difference between "not terribly good" and "worthless." You're right that it doesn't make sense for 0, 6 and 12 to all create the same amount of uncertainty. What makes you think they do?

I don't - as in my first post, I'm asking for feedback based on what I've seen in these forums. I've heard multiple people say anything less than 14 or 16 is worthless. If that is true, it's dumb. If it's not, then that's the feedback I'm looking for.

HBD had changed a lot about scouting budgets and the draft within the past few HBD seasons. I've only seen a few seasons and all I'll tell you with confidence is it's different than it was.

I think it's great WIS invested in HBD. Not where I would have put the money, but at least it's something.

I'm confident draft projections for $10M plus or minus a few are less accurate than they used to be. I have no idea how much better $10M is than $1M.

Since we can't see other team's budgets anymore, we can't learn anything about the draft from history. Looking at past drafts and budgets used to be a way to get better at budgeting and drafting. No more.

Given the player development variables and lack of data, it will take any one person hundreds of seasons to have a math-based reason to be confident about answers to your question.

Good luck. Let us know what you pick. Even better, report in every season with their development and playing time and your coaches and budgets.

Punt whichever pick isn't your type D. As for the other one...... good luck?

I have had good luck drafting with a $10 million scouting.Its almost like they set $10 million up to be positive because that is the default they give new owners. I would not trust the $0 scouting at all. Hope your college scouts find a lot of players. Draft a hard to sign player with your pick that isn't a type D as hockey1984 suggested. Offer him what he wants at first then when he wants more to sign, don't offer the higher salary. You will get a type D pick next season if he won't sign with you. Then you can put more money into scouting and possibly get better results. Draft a signable player with your current type D pick. But he has to be a college player because you shouldn't trust the HS scout. Rank your college players higher than the high school players because you can trust their scouting more. Good luck. Let us know how it turned out.