So I lost out on a recruit to a B+ DII school as a B+ BCS school (ole miss). So my question is do we think that the battle went as intended? We were both very high with him on top. Should he have been higher or lower or is it just right?

DI: 235 att pts, 9 home, 1 campus, and a redshirt. The only preference that mattered was "wants to play"
DII: 637 att pts, 13 home, 1 campus, 20 min and a start. So he got a big bonus for playing time.

if I woulda been betting I woulda guessed he woulda had to have had max visits and closer to 1000 att pts. Just curious about the discussion on this, and yes I was actively recruiting him from cycle 1 as was he.

the Red Shirt has a massive negative hit. He put in a start and wants to play.

If you are both Very High .. then the division does not matter .. and really neither does anything else except to try and figure out who was ahead.

When you have two teams both at very high, then the math probability math is like this:

Max Effort Guy (the leader, which ever one that is), has between 55% and 65% probability . The #2 guy has between 45% and 35%

All the adjustments for preferences and prestige are done before the total points are compared, so if two people are Very High .. those are the percentages.

It also does not matter how long some one is recruiting .. all that matters is Very High / Very High . that means after every adjustment is done to points (prestige OR preferences), it is 55% to 65% probability for one guy and 35% to 45% for the other guy.

If you have more than 2 in High or Very High, it gets more complex.

It also means .. if there are 2 people .. Very High and High .. then the probabilities are:

30% to 35% for the High .. 65% to 70% for the Very High.

@mully .. check my math please :)

"We were both very high with him on top."

The listing of schools within a group is alphabetical. You don't know who is on top.

"DI: 235 att pts, 9 home, 1 campus, and a redshirt. The only preference that mattered was "wants to play"
DII: 637 att pts, 13 home, 1 campus, 20 min and a start. So he got a big bonus for playing time."

When you're out-recruited by that much, I'm a little surprised you were even Very High. It shows what a built-in advantage the D1's have over the D2's.

Normally, I would say that B+ D1 team should easily win this, but the redshirt perhaps changes things. That makes the Ole Miss offer much weaker (or at least should, if we are trying to be realistic).

Posted by jcfreder on 11/5/2016 11:34:00 AM (view original):
Normally, I would say that B+ D1 team should easily win this, but the redshirt perhaps changes things. That makes the Ole Miss offer much weaker (or at least should, if we are trying to be realistic).

agreed .. but remember all the math is already done when you see High, Very High, Moderate, etc.

And they Defined what the cutoff point is (Probability wise) for those categories.

High is defined as greater than 35% and less than 40% probability to get the recruit based on the Max Effort guy. They then add a 5% bonus at the end to the Max effort guy, So that moves the High guy down to 30% to 35%. It is the actual definition of the category.

Very High is defined as greater than 40% and less than 50% probability of getting the guy .. and then substract 5% for the bonus. That math is aways the same for 2 teams in the range. So you know exactly where you stand.

Posted by hughesjr on 11/5/2016 11:25:00 AM (view original):
It also does not matter how long some one is recruiting .. all that matters is Very High / Very High . that means after every adjustment is done to points (prestige OR preferences), it is 55% to 65% probability for one guy and 35% to 45% for the other guy.

If you have more than 2 in High or Very High, it gets more complex.

It also means .. if there are 2 people .. Very High and High .. then the probabilities are:

30% to 35% for the High .. 65% to 70% for the Very High.

@mully .. check my math please :)

I put the length on there for those that woulda said I was trying to get the recruit for nothing as I was actually recruiting the recruit throughout the whole process. Since he was a DII he was listed as moderate throughout the whole process as I was very high throughout the whole process til the 1st signing cycle of session 2 and the quick switch. Had I known he wasn't an actual moderate then I would pumped more into the recruit but I assumed with what I put in the DII was a real moderate. I got caught off guard with the forced moderate. I know next time I will pump in til he's low.

remember that D2 and D3 ALWAYS are a max of moderate in the first session, even if they have High or Very High effort in. This is so that guys can sign with a High or Very High team in the first session (of their labelled division) if they decide to sign in the first session.

On the first turn of the second session, the actual Effort of the D2 team is shown. The actual effort of a D3 team is only shown on the last day.

I hope it's the redshirt that does this, otherwise d2 battling d1 needs to be toned down a bit

"That math is always the same for 2 teams in the range. So you know exactly where you stand."

Hmm, you are using "exactly" as an elastic term. It might be more accurate to suggest that you have a good idea of your range of possibilities by knowing what range you are in and what ranges other schools are in. It isn't really "exact." Knowing what you know, you can stand pat or recruit some more to further influence the probabilities.

Redshirting a guy who wants to play is almost begging to get beaten, isn't it? And it's still relatively even. Works as intended, as far as I can tell.