What are the odds of an D1 ineligible recruit sticking around for D2 school after he signed? Does openings on your roster have an effect on the percentage?

For example if I bring in two recruits for four openings is the ineligible recruit more or less likely to stay than if I fill the roster.

The ineligibles that I recruit in DII almost always show up, if I spend enough recruiting money on them. I always add several more home visits than I need to up his interest in the school. Of course, spending more money on them has become a lot harder in 3.0 because we don't have as much money.

The other thing you can do is promise them 30 minutes + start. You don't have to keep the promises the following season, but it does pose the risk that they will pass their SATs at the last second and then you are stuck with the promises. But that's rare, and the promises do seem to help significantly in getting them to show up.

3.0 has decreased the number of ineligibles reporting. If I drop "beta test" out of the subject, I am 0-3 (and waiting on one this morning when World rolls) ineligibles reporting. They have all gone JUCO.

I've had the opposite experience so far. I've recruited two or three and they all have shown up. In every case I offered 30 minutes + Start. Small sample size, obviously.

Unfortunately, one of the guys passed his SATs right at the end of recruiting and was eligible to start the season. I came close to getting him his promised minutes (I think he average 27 minutes), but he was still pisssed and left at the end of the season.

consider whether it is that 3.0 has changed the odds of ineligibles reporting OR whether you are getting a different level of recruit

it has long been my experience, that a lesser recruit is more like to enroll

so, if you tended to get okay nonqualifiers in 2.0 but now have signed some great players - highly rated - they might - all things being equal be less likely to enroll

also consider effort - if you used to pour tons of effort into nonqualifiers, has that changed?

Thanks for the help and insight everyone

Anytime you're a D2 recruiting a D1 ineligible .... odds are he will not show. Money spent will matter, but still likely to go JC.

CoachWard has figured out the odds and will sell them to you for 10$.

I'll give you the formula for free, cosign((Average AP * Pi) / (Players ID * e))^Recruiting Effort / Prestige

Then you throw that all out and roll two 20 sided dice, you have to roll a pair that adds together to be less than 4.

Posted by kcsundevil on 12/28/2016 3:59:00 PM (view original):
CoachWard has figured out the odds and will sell them to you for 10$.

Posts like this are why I check every thread.

Are ineligibles even worth the hassle?

Posted by mbriese on 12/28/2016 4:31:00 PM (view original):

Posted by kcsundevil on 12/28/2016 3:59:00 PM (view original):
CoachWard has figured out the odds and will sell them to you for 10$.

Posts like this are why I check every thread.

Wouldn't want to miss such a bargain.

Posted by zhawks on 12/28/2016 4:26:00 PM (view original):
I'll give you the formula for free, cosign((Average AP * Pi) / (Players ID * e))^Recruiting Effort / Prestige

Then you throw that all out and roll two 20 sided dice, you have to roll a pair that adds together to be less than 4.

Finally someone is putting some time into understanding HD 3.0!!! Bravo.