In the world of advanced stats... Topic

How does a team that goes 18-11 against the 8th SOS wind up 23 spots below on the Projection Report then a team that went 18-10 against the 19th SOS. SOR anyone? HD is kinda stuck in the past. But at least we don't just use RPI!
4/6/2017 10:49 AM
without looking I'm guessing it's top 100 wins
4/6/2017 11:03 AM
You were 3-9 vs RPI top 100 schools
4/6/2017 11:15 AM
Can't see the other team but zero top 50 RPI wins isn't good.

I think projection report is real good actually. Usually very little complain about.
4/6/2017 11:37 AM
Other guy had 1 top 50 win and beat 4 humans although two human wins were against 185 RPI. My resume was not strong but he beat 2 humans in the top 184!!! He was rewarded with a 10 seed.
4/6/2017 12:32 PM
the projection report doesn't see a difference between beating humans and sims though
4/6/2017 1:59 PM
I know what you mean I'm just talking about the quality of teams.
4/6/2017 2:28 PM
Link to team cubcub?
4/6/2017 2:39 PM
https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/TeamProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=3526
4/6/2017 3:24 PM
Two wins against the top 20 helps a lot.
4/6/2017 3:41 PM
You may find it useful to look at my resume this year at TCU. Ended with an RPI of 41 and a SOS of 82 and got in as a 9 seed. But I went 3-6 vs the top 50 and 4-7 vs the top 100. Those top 50 wins made up for some of my crappy noncon games.

https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/TeamProfile/Schedule.aspx?tid=12061
4/6/2017 3:51 PM
Thanks. mrs. Also, this is not a challenge but a question, would two top 20 wins get you in pretty much whatever? Does the PR just focus more on quality wins and less on SOR? Thanks to everyone who posted in this thread, you've all been really helpful.
4/6/2017 4:32 PM
No, it's a balance and uses several factors. Pretty similar to how the selection committee works irl. Want to get Good wins and avoid Bad losses. Also get a small bonus for road games. Here is what I found in the FAQ

National Tournament selection and seeding both rely on the same logic.

The logic for ranking teams for the postseason essentially calculates a score for each game on the team's schedule. This game score is determined by the following components:

  • Result (win or loss)
  • RPI rank of the opponent
  • Top 25 rank of the opponent (this rank is actually calculated and used for all teams, even beyond the top 25)
  • Score margin of the game
  • Location (home, away, or neutral court)
There is also consideration given to record over the final 10 games as well as conference tournament performance.

Once the tournament field has been determined, then the seeding process will begin, using the same evaluation logic. Some teams may be moved slightly in order to avoid same-conference match-ups early in the tournament.

Once the National Tournament bids have been handed out, the PostSeason Invitational teams are selected using the same process.

Note: teams must have a minimum of .500 win% to qualify for National Tournament at-large bids and a minimum .425 win% to qualify for the Postseason Invitational.

4/6/2017 4:58 PM
Posted by bathtubhippo on 4/6/2017 1:59:00 PM (view original):
the projection report doesn't see a difference between beating humans and sims though
I know this is supposed to be the case but I've always had a sneaky suspicion that wins versus human coached teams really "are" valued more on the PR. I've got absolutely no proof outside of what my gut tells me so I'm probably off base here though.
4/7/2017 5:31 AM
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