I was wondering what numbers coaches use to determine where to set the defense? Is it based off how many threes a team shoots throughout the season (%) or how many they shoot when they play against the same defense as you run?

From grecianfox:

I tend to do it based on the number of three point attempts the team averages and their trends over the past 5 games or so. As a general rule in m2m:

22+ attempts/game = +3 to +5 depending on ratings/matchups.
19-21 = +2
17-18 = +1
14-16 = 0
12-13 = -1
9-11 = -2
6-8 = -3
4-5 = -4
0-3 = -5

I look at the PER ratings first and then game logs. I basically just eyeball it from there.

If it's a sim, they'll take a ton of 3s but usually won't be very good at it. So if they want to chuck up a ton of 3s, I'll let them. I'll still go -1 or -2 against SIMs even if they're taking 20 3s a game.

I usually never go above +2 personally and I'll go -3 if they take only 2 or 3 a game.

I just use +1 against the sim.

I was told long ago that anything over 3 +/- is just overkill.

Posted by beachhouse on 4/1/2017 1:35:00 PM (view original):
I just use +1 against the sim.

I was told long ago that anything over 3 +/- is just overkill.

I heard similar but I heard not to go over +2 or -2. But I can see what they say above.

Posted by Benis on 4/1/2017 1:09:00 PM (view original):
I look at the PER ratings first and then game logs. I basically just eyeball it from there.

If it's a sim, they'll take a ton of 3s but usually won't be very good at it. So if they want to chuck up a ton of 3s, I'll let them. I'll still go -1 or -2 against SIMs even if they're taking 20 3s a game.

I usually never go above +2 personally and I'll go -3 if they take only 2 or 3 a game.

This. If a team is willing to take 30% of their shots from 3 and only shoots 25% then by all means, I'm gonna let them chuck up shots all game long.

I've had quite a bit of luck going (-4) or (-5) against teams that don't shoot a lot of 3's. Forum facts say you're more prone to foul trouble when you do that but that hasn't been my experience, and I'll run extreme minuses at D2 and D3 if I'm a significant underdog against a poor 3-pt shooting team.

I've only used (+3) or higher a few times, and that was always against humans that took an insane amount of 3's with several guys with 90+ PER ratings. Whatever season I won a championship in D2 Tark the team I played against in the championship took 1400 3's that season and shot them at something like 48%-it was absurd. I ran a (+5) because no one else had tried that and was able to slow them down just enough to eek out a win.

If I'm a big underdog and the other team doesn't shoot 3s I'll say EFF it and go -5

Posted by Benis on 4/1/2017 1:48:00 PM (view original):
If I'm a big underdog and the other team doesn't shoot 3s I'll say EFF it and go -5

yea iv done that once. was +11 against a ranked team with my new team in year one. it was game 10 of the year and they were only 4 of 13......for the entire season lol so i played them -5 and only lost by 4. but generally, i live in the -2 to +2 range.

I will go to -5....I have no issue using +/- above 2.

I use % of FGA, if if more than 33% of FGA are 3FGA I go +, if below I go -.

For me to go beyond the 3 value it's usually got to be more the 42% or less than 15%.

Posted by Benis on 4/1/2017 1:48:00 PM (view original):
If I'm a big underdog and the other team doesn't shoot 3s I'll say EFF it and go -5

The magical -5 worked last night!

https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=14296647&tab=boxscore

I think a lot of good feedback is here, I generally always got +1 against SIMS. They always shoot a solid amount of outside shots and regardless of ratings a +1 will neutralize most of the offense they have.

For humans it really depends on matchups I have, I also run man to man. So if I have a 90+ DEF on there best outside shooter for most the game I might not worry about it as much. The main thing I haven't seen mentioned is rebounding as I have heard that a - def setup can impact rebounding. If I am facing a team where I have a good rebound advantage I may push more in the + advantage. If I need help down low for that I may also go -. Generally I will only go into the -4 or +4 range if I am a longshot to win, talking a team that outmatches me in every area. Low chance to win might as well just force all you have in 1 direction.

I did have an upset once where I ran +4 and then cranked my best shooters to +2 from the arc and fed them the ball. Ended up hitting 15+ 3 pointers and forced myself into the game and barely won.

I adjust more with my post vs guard confidence. If it feels like my post D is awesome then my base D may be a +1 but if my guards are studs and my posts are weak/young then my base may be a -1 or -2. So I'll use that as my starting point and adjust up or down depending on that.