Tarkanian
The recruit - Ronald Ellison
The teams - UAB B+ (me) and Villanova A- (snafu)
The issue - what were the effects that made this a 60-40 dice roll in favor of Villanova
Preference
playing time - no preference
distance- no preference
success- Wants success UAB- very good, Villanova- very good (assumed)
play style- strong defense - UAB- neutral, Villanova - good?
offense- no preference
defense- zone UAB- good, Villanova- good (amazingly we both play zone-press)
conference strength- strong conference UAB- neutral, Villanova- very good
coach longevity- no preference
signing preference- early

UAB recruiting- 80 AP's EVERY cycle
20 HV's, 1 CV, guaranteed minutes 25, guarantee starter (all done as soon as possible and before Villanova)
I assume Villanova matched the HV's and CV, not sure about guaranteed minutes and start.
Not sure if Villanova had 80 AP's every cycle, but let's assume they did.

Villanova advantages
strong defense
strong conference
1/2 letter grade (A- to B+)

UAB advantage
maybe none - possible AP advantage (at worst even), 1st to offer all HVs, CV 25 minutes, start

I was a little surprised that I maxed out everything possible recruiting as soon as possible and only ended up with a 40% dice roll.

What made the huge difference?
1/2 letter grade?
strong defense?
strong conference?

My fear is that the strong conference was the biggest separator which certainly would affect my future recruiting against Big 5 conference schools.

Other questions-
Is there any advantage of being the first to offer HV's. CV,s, minutes, start?
If playing time is no preference, do minutes, start have ANY effect?

Probable should know some of these questions, but I do not.
Thanks in advance for some education!

One of your "other" questions is the key difference here. Offering minutes and a start earlier than Nova only matters when the recruit has a preference for playing time. That pref would have changed to "very good" and it would've given you a multiplier for all future recruiting efforts.

Instead with no preference for PT, you only got a 1-time bump on the cycle that you offered the start and promised minutes, which was later matched and equaled by Nova.

Posted by pdxblazerfan on 8/28/2018 11:33:00 AM (view original):
One of your "other" questions is the key difference here. Offering minutes and a start earlier than Nova only matters when the recruit has a preference for playing time. That pref would have changed to "very good" and it would've given you a multiplier for all future recruiting efforts.

Instead with no preference for PT, you only got a 1-time bump on the cycle that you offered the start and promised minutes, which was later matched and equaled by Nova.

Correct and makes Playing time and Starts moot. Somebody correct me if I am not quoting correctly, but I am sure I read in a post that the minute promises for a Player with no preference to play, are the same as a yes/no on playing time, and any minute level is the same as any other minute level. Translated in simpler terms, if a player has no preference to play, a 10 minute and a 25 minute promise are equal. Which means it boiled down to Conference Base Line as the advantage.

I'd say the A-/B+ made getting to 60-40 a good outcome. Then add in conference strength and you probably had more effort than Villanova did. You just couldn't overcome the natural advantage of a power 5 conference.

Posted by wvufan76 on 8/28/2018 1:09:00 PM (view original):

Posted by pdxblazerfan on 8/28/2018 11:33:00 AM (view original):
One of your "other" questions is the key difference here. Offering minutes and a start earlier than Nova only matters when the recruit has a preference for playing time. That pref would have changed to "very good" and it would've given you a multiplier for all future recruiting efforts.

Instead with no preference for PT, you only got a 1-time bump on the cycle that you offered the start and promised minutes, which was later matched and equaled by Nova.

Correct and makes Playing time and Starts moot. Somebody correct me if I am not quoting correctly, but I am sure I read in a post that the minute promises for a Player with no preference to play, are the same as a yes/no on playing time, and any minute level is the same as any other minute level. Translated in simpler terms, if a player has no preference to play, a 10 minute and a 25 minute promise are equal. Which means it boiled down to Conference Base Line as the advantage.

I don't think that 10 minutes promised and 25 minutes promised are equal exactly. I think your description in general is correct. I think each 5 minute increase is worth something. But not very much.

I've been in a position where I'm moderate against moderate, and I jump up from 15 to 20 minutes, and I'll move up to high. I don't think it's a substantial benefit tho. I'd guess that each 5 minute increase is worth maybe 1 HV. Or slightly less. Maybe jumping from 10 minutes to 25 minutes might be equal to 2 HV.

Thanks for the feedback.

Sounds like if conference strength is a preference, you're at a significant disadvantage against a Power 5 conference school (and you're not).

So ... offering HV's and CV first offers no advantage when the other team later matches it?

Interesting case study. Always fun to try and figure out the recipe when things like this happen. But I agree with the rest of the thread. If the player doesn't care about playing time you just get a one-time boost from promising minutes or a start.

I don't have any proof to back it up but I agree with topdogg that each 5 min increase is worth something extra. But probably not that much - and again, just the one time. Additionally - I don't think there's any benefit to stepping the promises (which I've definitely done numerous times). Where you promise, 10, then 15, then 20 etc, even though all along you intended to do 20. I used to think that the act of making a new promise gave you an additional benefit. And that may have been true in 2.0. And it's definitely true now if your recruit wants to play (but you still shouldn't step). But if they don't want to play it's just incremental.

For ex) If promising 25 minutes is worth, say, a one-time 25 attention point boost (easy numbers to create an example) and promising 10 minutes is worth 10 attention points, you don't get 10 points for a 10 minute promise and then 15 points for a 15 promise, 20 points for a 20 promise etc. Rather - I think 25 points is the capped max so there's no reason not to just drop that the very first time. Rather than have your "boost" go 10 +5 + 5 + 5. Promising a start in this scenario may be worth another 25 or 30. Hope that made sense.

And to your last question - I don't think there's any advantage to offering HVs and CVs first when a team later matches it. Was definitely an advantage in 2.0 but I don't think timing plays a factor at all in 3.0 when it comes to this. The only advantage to being early on a recruit would be the attention points and preferences when both teams give out the same number of visits and promises. That's where the separation would occur and the multipliers could be found.

Posted by teamvip on 8/30/2018 6:47:00 PM (view original):
Interesting case study. Always fun to try and figure out the recipe when things like this happen. But I agree with the rest of the thread. If the player doesn't care about playing time you just get a one-time boost from promising minutes or a start.

I don't have any proof to back it up but I agree with topdogg that each 5 min increase is worth something extra. But probably not that much - and again, just the one time. Additionally - I don't think there's any benefit to stepping the promises (which I've definitely done numerous times). Where you promise, 10, then 15, then 20 etc, even though all along you intended to do 20. I used to think that the act of making a new promise gave you an additional benefit. And that may have been true in 2.0. And it's definitely true now if your recruit wants to play (but you still shouldn't step). But if they don't want to play it's just incremental.

For ex) If promising 25 minutes is worth, say, a one-time 25 attention point boost (easy numbers to create an example) and promising 10 minutes is worth 10 attention points, you don't get 10 points for a 10 minute promise and then 15 points for a 15 promise, 20 points for a 20 promise etc. Rather - I think 25 points is the capped max so there's no reason not to just drop that the very first time. Rather than have your "boost" go 10 +5 + 5 + 5. Promising a start in this scenario may be worth another 25 or 30. Hope that made sense.

And to your last question - I don't think there's any advantage to offering HVs and CVs first when a team later matches it. Was definitely an advantage in 2.0 but I don't think timing plays a factor at all in 3.0 when it comes to this. The only advantage to being early on a recruit would be the attention points and preferences when both teams give out the same number of visits and promises. That's where the separation would occur and the multipliers could be found.

I would actually venture to say that offering those things first could put you at a disadvantage if you dont offer playing time first to a player that wants it. If the other school waits until the multiplier is in place they will get rewarded more for those visits.

Team prestige is a really big factor.
Seems like any time i challenge a team that is 2 ticks higher, i can't improve odds better than 40% vs 60%. This is with max effort and everything else pretty much equal.

Utthead--

I had 80 pts on him a cycle from the first cycle, CV, 20 HV, Promised start, 20 promised minutes. My final tally was 1280 AP.

My preferences were:

Wants Success: Very Good
Strong Defense: Very Good
Zone: Good
Strong Conference: Very Good

I was surprised that I didn't bump you off of him to be honest, for a couple reasons. First, the prestige and preference advantage. Second, I didn't think you had 80 AP on him every cycle as I knew you had 100 AP to work with, and you had two other recruits considering you at Very High, one on the second day of recruiting. I estimated that you had put 60 on him for a couple cycles to unlock the other guys.

One last thing is I could have gone all in one cycle earlier, at the same time as you, but out of superstition I offered playing time that cycle, waited for it to process, then went all in the next cycle. I know it doesn't matter since he didn't have a PT preference, but its something I am in the habit of doing just to be safe.

Posted by teamvip on 8/30/2018 6:47:00 PM (view original):
Interesting case study. Always fun to try and figure out the recipe when things like this happen. But I agree with the rest of the thread. If the player doesn't care about playing time you just get a one-time boost from promising minutes or a start.

I don't have any proof to back it up but I agree with topdogg that each 5 min increase is worth something extra. But probably not that much - and again, just the one time. Additionally - I don't think there's any benefit to stepping the promises (which I've definitely done numerous times). Where you promise, 10, then 15, then 20 etc, even though all along you intended to do 20. I used to think that the act of making a new promise gave you an additional benefit. And that may have been true in 2.0. And it's definitely true now if your recruit wants to play (but you still shouldn't step). But if they don't want to play it's just incremental.

For ex) If promising 25 minutes is worth, say, a one-time 25 attention point boost (easy numbers to create an example) and promising 10 minutes is worth 10 attention points, you don't get 10 points for a 10 minute promise and then 15 points for a 15 promise, 20 points for a 20 promise etc. Rather - I think 25 points is the capped max so there's no reason not to just drop that the very first time. Rather than have your "boost" go 10 +5 + 5 + 5. Promising a start in this scenario may be worth another 25 or 30. Hope that made sense.

And to your last question - I don't think there's any advantage to offering HVs and CVs first when a team later matches it. Was definitely an advantage in 2.0 but I don't think timing plays a factor at all in 3.0 when it comes to this. The only advantage to being early on a recruit would be the attention points and preferences when both teams give out the same number of visits and promises. That's where the separation would occur and the multipliers could be found.

I have some proof about 25 being worth more than 20.

I was in mini battle against TJ's D3 team with my D2 Dominican team. I spent my money elsewhere and didn't have a dime to spend on this guy. Had already offered 20 min and a start and we were both at Moderate. I was initially at H after the promises but then he must have put in some effort.

Anyway, I threw another 5 minutes his way and got up to High and he just signed with me. So yeah, definitely worth something.