Seems like a good time to assess the quality of my predictions for the season, as included in my preseason writeups.
65M: "Playoff confidence is just 33%, and I’ll guess 81 wins."
Result: 73 wins, and nowhere near the playoffs (T2, 11 games back)
90M: "no more than 50% confidence in making the playoffs. Let’s call it 85 wins (+/- 3)."
Result: 89 wins (Won division by 5 games)
100M: "feels like a 90+-win squad to me. I give it an 80% shot at playoffs."
Result: 82 wins (T3, 7 games back, missed playoff TB by 1 game)
110M: "I’ll go with 85% playoff confidence and 90 wins projected."
Result: Nailed it! 90 wins and WC berth (2nd, 7 back and 7 ahead of next WC contender)
130M: "I’m going with 75% confidence in making the playoffs. Upper-80s feels right for a win total."
Result: My best team at 91 wins but no playoffs (2nd, 8 back and missed WC by 11)
255M: "50% playoff confidence and a projected 86 wins."
Result: 81 wins (Won division by 5 games)
So only 1 of my 3 highest confidence teams made the playoffs, but 2 others did. My biggest fear was correctly realized with my 65M disaster.
In the owner poll, I put myself at 50/50 for R2. I was pre-rank at 22. I am sitting at ... tied for 21st, which is basically also 22nd. Projected to finish 18th. I'll be thrilled if that happens.