“As shoe3 points out, what class you are in affects the likelihood that you fall into a particular category, but once you are in that category, your likelihood remains about the same, with likely going at about 87-90%, on the fence at about 40-45%, likely staying at about 10-13%, and staying at or near 0%.”

The data benis posted above seems to suggest differently. It’s not a big difference, and the sample is still small, but unless I’m reading the numbers wrong, the on the fence jrs who are up closer to first round projection do appear to declare at a higher rate. I’m suggesting it goes something like 55% at the top end to 45% at the low end of “on the fence”.

It would be quite a departure from other aspects of the game if the odds for leaving within a category were static. We don’t see that in recruiting or prestige.

Posted by thewizard17 on 10/31/2018 8:02:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 10/31/2018 7:44:00 AM (view original):

Posted by thewizard17 on 10/29/2018 11:47:00 PM (view original):

Posted by Benis on 10/29/2018 10:31:00 PM (view original):

Posted by thewizard17 on 10/29/2018 12:29:00 PM (view original):
It was somewhat explained in the coaches corner, but maybe I misunderstood or I'm completely retarded.

#24 is a sophomore but is listed as likely staying
#25 is a junior and is listed as likely going

Which player has a better chance at getting drafted? If it's #24 then why would it be listed as likely staying?

The likely going is MUCH more likely to leave. I have data for 15 seasons. Likely going has a 88% chance of leaving and likely staying has 14% chance of leaving.

I think the logic of this is that a player who is 'younger' needs more convincing to leave school so he needs to be a higher chance of a high draft pick. It kind of makes sense as it relates to real life - I suppose. Guess they Junior is more fed up with the grind of college and is sick of doing homework!

Ok, so just talking about odds of getting drafted and not draft position, I want to make sure I get this correct.

A #100 ranked junior that's "on the fence" is more likely to go than a #30 ranked sophomore that's "likely staying"?

But a #25 ranked sophomore that's also a "likely staying" would have more of a chance of getting drafted than the #30 ranked sophomore, that's listed as "likely staying"?

Or are all "likely stayings" have the same odds regardless of number position?

Here you go

There is definitely a big difference once you get past the 17ish spot for Jr's likely leaving.

This is good stuff! Thank you. This is exactly what I'm looking for.

The "likely going" junior that ended up staying from 1-5, I'm guessing that is the same guy that was the ineligible?

No, those guys are listed as Seniors, not Juniors.

It's possible that some of the players who did stay were because of the 6 player leaving rule. But in this particular case of the #4 player staying, it doesn't seem so. It was Smorse at Duke in Tark. He didn't have any other EEs and only had 2 seniors graduate and were drafted. So it seems unlikely he had 4 other seniors leave who were not draft worthy but it's possible.

Posted by thewizard17 on 10/31/2018 8:06:00 AM (view original):
I don't have any statistical data to back this up, but felt there was a huge drop from guys leaving early into the NBA after Top 30.

Well this is definitely true for Sophomores because they turn from On the Fence to Likely staying at #28. And my data supports that that they're more likely to stay.

Thanks Benis, that info is great. You sliced and diced it in more detail than I had, and definitely disproved some of my thoughts:
- On the fence sophomores appear much more likely to go pro than junior on the fence, likely because they are all higher ranked on the big board.
- It looks like shoe3's theory was correct that being higher on the big board within a category makes a player more likely to go pro. Based on the data, though, it is unclear whether it is more of a gradual decline as shoe3 proposed, or if it might be more of a sub-tier type structure (i.e., there appears to be a pretty big drop off between 17 and 18 for likely going juniors, and not much difference for on the fence juniors once you get to 50+).
- While I have seen (or at least thought I had seen) Big Boards during the season where the categories did not precisely align with those cutoff points, it does look like, on the final Big Board, those are hard and fast cutoffs between the categories. Good job identifying those, Benis.

Below is a link to the data I have tracked in Smith over the prior 10 seasons. I've removed the following categories (at least in part) and broken them out separately:
-"Below the Bar" - potential EEs who have 60 players ahead of them on the Big Board who are drafted, and therefore never got the chance to declare.
-"Capped" - potential EEs who didn't get the chance to declare due to the cap of 6 players rule. Note, however, that I only started tracking this for the last four seasons, so there may be some players who were capped still in seasons prior to that.

https://imgur.com/a/E7KRBg7